Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 262029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
429 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TIP OF THE MITTEN COUNTIES
THROUGH 10 PM. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE (BULK SHEAR 40 TO
50 KNOTS) AND DECENT INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE) THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THIS AREA MAY RAMP
UP WITH THE HELP OF FORCING FROM INCOMING WAVE. THE MAIN THREAT IS
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS
11,200 PER THE APX SOUNDING SO IT WOULD TAKE A FAIRLY GOOD CELL TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ONLY CHANCE POPS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WHERE WRAP AROUND WILL LIKELY LINGER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.

UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY "NORMAL" LATE SPRING WEATHER REGIME.  ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO DEAL WITH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND COOL FRONT...WHICH WIL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP COVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AREA OF DEFORMATION RAIN WRAPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
...ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.  MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.  WE MAY ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD POOL BUT MUCH OF THAT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MICHIGAN.

AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA.  TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
/70S TO LOWER 80S/ WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MIX OUT.  SOME OF THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE HURON ALONG INLAND PENETRATING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN THE H9-H8 LAYER SHOULD
INHIBIT MOST /ALL/ OF THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY...HELPING TO
BRING A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND WARMING INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AIRPORT SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AS TO WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS...NOT IN THE TAF YET BUT IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT PLN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL
HELP HOWEVER.

CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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