Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 091948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN
LOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: NONE.

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...992 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHEAST QUEBEC WITH 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. APX AND
SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED JUST A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SKY COVER AND HOW COLD IT WILL TURN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...PERHAPS A LEFTOVER SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER
OR NORTHEAST LOWER THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AIR/INCREASED STABILITY...ALLOWING CLOUDS AND ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SO WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SO EXPECT A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S IN THE LOW LYING SPOTS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...NICE BUT A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ELONGATED/AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COOL START TO
JULY (DEPARTURES OF -1 TO -3F THUS FAR).  SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL COLD POOL WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGHING ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA.  MICHIGAN LIES IN A
POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF JAMES BAY
CIRCULATES COOL AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  WARM AIR BEGINS TO
RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES TO THE EAST...AND A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPPER
LAKES SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY MINIMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): MORE SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WEATHER...SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS EXPECTED BUT EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 70 EXPECTED...AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY...PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST BUT WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO KICK IN WITH
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING.  WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED.  SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY MORNING (PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES).  LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN
TO "TIP" TOWARD WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CARRY AN OVERNIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN
LOWER.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY):  COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EMERGING FROM THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CANADA EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER MANITOBA TO START THE WEEKEND...HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE
HELPING TO PUSH THE MIDWEST COLD FRONT TOWARD MICHIGAN SATURDAY...
THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH REMAINS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY GET STRETCHED
EAST-WEST.  MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SHOWERS (MAY BE SOME MCS REMNANTS IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL THOUGH PERHAPS MORE OF A DOWNSTATE ISSUE).
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS THEN FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE MIDWEST TO
START NEXT WEEK...AND BRING ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL COOL PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN STARTING WITH PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IN THE
MONDAY TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COOL AND SHOWERY (DARE I SAY IT ALMOST
LOOKS "LAKE-EFFECTY") TUESDAY...SIMILAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY MODERATING A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS
GRIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND BECOME NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND
NOONTIME THURSDAY. ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY.  MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WIND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST...BUT
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...JPB





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