Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 020724
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN LINGER ACROSS M-55 AND THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL DRIFT OVER THIS FRONT DURING THIS TIME AND WILL BRING DECENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
LOWER. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-022015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-022015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.11 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-022015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-022015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.19 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-022015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
324 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.11 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.22 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

$$

SMD



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