Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181953
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY...
...RAIN FOR SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POKE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL FEED IN
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...RESULTING IN RATHER LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ON
SATURDAY.

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WET WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
COOLING OFF YET AGAIN.

WE WILL SEE A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SATURDAY...AND A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE SUNDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-191200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-26.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.27 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 27 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-191200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-191200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-26...EXCEPT 29-34 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.21 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.33 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-191200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 36-41 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 15 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-191200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.18 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ





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