Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 142001
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE FEATURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL GENERATE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SUN AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
WORK WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-150830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AFTER
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF LIGHT
                    RAIN UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-150830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN LIGHT RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.15 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). LIGHT RAIN UNTIL
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-150830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF LIGHT
                    RAIN UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-150830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0500...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN LIGHT RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). LIGHT RAIN
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-150830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN LIGHT RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.17 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). LIGHT RAIN UNTIL
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SWR





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