Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 011950
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...RECENT STRETCH OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN
END FOR MANY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-020830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.26 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.24 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-020830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.47 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

$$

MIZ020-025>027-020830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.29 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.26 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

$$

MIZ031>033-020830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.31 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.34 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-020830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.25 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.48 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMITH



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