Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 191947
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...WET WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL STALL...
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND
LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN COOL OFF YET AGAIN.

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON
SUNDAY...AND LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON MONDAY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-201200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.30 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.27 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.32 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-201200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.18 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.21 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.33 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-201200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1200...THEN RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.26 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.32 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-201200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 31 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.25 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.28 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-201200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.23 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.31 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ





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