Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 261927
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

...COOL AND SHOWERY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...COOL...BREEZY...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS WILL BE APLENTY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY SINKS OFF TO OUR SOUTH...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY TUE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.41 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.30 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.27 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.36 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.29 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.17 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.23 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.34 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-270815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1100. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.35 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
327 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.13 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG



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