Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FNUS53 KAPX 021923
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...TURNING WINDY AND WARMER TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF IT. LACK OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT READINGS REMAINING
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS ANY LOWER VALUES...COMBINED WITH
THOSE GUSTY WINDS...MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. FRONT IS
A STEADY MOVER...CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
LINGER WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ELEVATED RH
LEVELS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-030815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.20 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-030815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.18 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-030815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
                    2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.22 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-030815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.25 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-030815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.19 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...WARMER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.