Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 200921
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN TURNING WARMER AND DRIER...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1400...THEN PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1400...THEN PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
                    UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1400...THEN PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-202030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1400...THEN PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
521 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1400...THEN PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
                    UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND
50. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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