Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 201546
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...UPDATED TO REFLECT SLOWER PRECIPITATION TIMING...

.DISCUSSION...SLOWER PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL CAUSE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL INCREASE
CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY AND MONDAY...THEN COOL
OFF AGAIN ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.18 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.36 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.42 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 32 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.24 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......42 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 47 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.42 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.17 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2100...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.52 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.41 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-202030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.41 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.39 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
1146 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2400...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.28 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.42 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

$$

TL





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