Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 011048
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDER...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-012030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.32 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2300...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.30 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0900.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.27 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.36 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.34 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.27 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-012030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.34 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.29 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0900.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.31 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.36 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





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