Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 301324
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...DEEP DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN CLASSIC HUDSON BAY HIGH SETUP...

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP A
DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER. CHANCES FOR RAIN DO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE
BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRING SOUTH OF M-72...WHICH INCLUDES THE
THE HURON AND MANISTEE NATIONAL FORESTS. RAIN DEPARTS SUNDAY
AND SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY...KEEPING HUMIDITY MUCH HIGHER
DESPITE THE CONTINUING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-302030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 43-48 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-302030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.24 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-302030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-302030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.20 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-302030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.32 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SMD



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