Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 270822
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SHOWERS...COOLER AND DAMP TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...A SMALLER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD BRING MOST AREAS SOME RAINFALL TODAY.

RAINFALL DIMINISHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDY/DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME
DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES.

SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOME SUNSHINE BACK TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK THROUGH THE 70S.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-272200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.20 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    OR PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-272200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.20 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.23 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    OR PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-272200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.27 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    OR PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-272200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.32 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    OR PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-272200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.29 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.20 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    OR PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$





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