Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 191947
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.21 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST UP TO 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.21 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.20 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.16 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-200830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0300...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.18 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.16 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.21 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

BERGER





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