Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
099
FNUS53 KAPX 261917
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST. RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR SOME IS POSSIBLE.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, ULTIMATELY
SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO WNW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.19 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.34 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.28 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.20 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.30 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-270830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.28 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.19 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.28 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.