Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 301938
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL BE
CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010845-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.21 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.39 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010845-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.26 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.29 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.43 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 93-98 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010845-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.22 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.26 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-010845-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.17 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.27 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.24 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010845-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.28 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.38 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.17 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JK


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