Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 280905
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...COOLER AND PRECIPITATION-FREE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (700).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-282030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
505 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.22 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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