Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 200858
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.

WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY AND SUNDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.27 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2300. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.12 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.28 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.24 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.20 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-202015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.26 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
458 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.25 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS. AREAS OF FROST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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