Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

251
FNUS53 KAPX 250939
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST DOWNSTATE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE BEGUN AN UPWARD TREND...AND BY THURSDAY OUR
AIR WILL BE NOTICEABLY MUGGIER. WINDS TODAY WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL KEEP PLACES NEAR LAKE HURON
COOLER. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP NEAR ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-252100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    2400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.28 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 15 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2400...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.24 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.19 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 36 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.36 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-252100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.38 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
539 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.28 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...AREAS OF FOG. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.