Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 272012
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO END THE WORK WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
A NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-280830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.41-0.83 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-280830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.61 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-280830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.38-0.68 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-280830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.12 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.41 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-280830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
412 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.47 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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