Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 250708
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...SOAKING RAINS ARRIVE TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...RAIN FREE WEATHER TODAY GIVES WAY TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS UP AND OVER
A HALF AN INCH LIKELY. COLD AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL TREND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED TODAY...WITH WINDS VEERING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. VERY GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-252015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.62 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.50 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.43-0.71 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-252015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.40-0.71 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.19 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
308 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.46 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.26 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB



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