Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 141957
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND SPREAD A ROUND OF SNOW UP THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BRINGING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID APRIL.

HOWEVER...THIS NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL PRESS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-151000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). VERY LIGHT SNOW AFTER
                    2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-22.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.11 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....9-14...EXCEPT 16-21 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 30-35 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-151000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). VERY LIGHT SNOW AFTER
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). VERY LIGHT SNOW
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....29-34...EXCEPT 21-26 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....13-18.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 12
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 30-35 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-151000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT
                    SNOW AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-21.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....13-18...EXCEPT AROUND 21 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-151000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-22.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-21...EXCEPT 23-28 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-151000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). VERY LIGHT SNOW AFTER
                    2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT
                    SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25.
   24 HR TREND......21 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF VERY
                    LIGHT SNOW UNTIL 0800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....14-19.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

ADAM






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