Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 271921
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HOT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN
LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-280815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-280815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-280815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.28 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-280815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.32 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.30 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-280815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.20 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.27 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JK



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