Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 250718
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOUND AT TIMES
LATER TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
VERY LOW GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SIMILARLY...WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...NO BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
                    MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.77 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
                    MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.68 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-260000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.50 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-260000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.24 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
318 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING FROM THE
                    SOUTHWEST TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.31 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.18 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

LAWRENCE



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