Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181121
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-182030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0900. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.60-0.76 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-182030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.49-0.67 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-182030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.21 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.52-0.73 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-182030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0900. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.41-0.64 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-182030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
721 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.54-0.70 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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