Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 211919
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Showers and Storms Then Much Cooler...

.DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms will be possible
through this evening as a frontal boundary remains draped across
the area. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail. An
isolated tornado is possible. Low pressure rides along the stalled
out front tonight into early Tuesday. This will result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight into the first part
of Tuesday. A fairly quick wind shift behind the low pressure
area on Tuesday with much cooler air sweeping into the Great
Lakes. Winds will be gusty from the northwest on Tuesday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. scattered thunderstorms. periods of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the northwest
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.42-0.73 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Numerous showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    isolated showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1850).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.36 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1200).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms. Patchy fog after
                    2300 until 0200.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.36-0.75 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Numerous showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1790).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.21-0.39 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 27 mph becoming west around 15
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1550).
Mixing Height.......7100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. scattered thunderstorms. periods of
                    showers after 2400. Patchy fog after 2400 until
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.37-0.63 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Periods of
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 0800,
                    then scattered showers until 1400.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1580).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.33 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1020).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-220830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. scattered thunderstorms. periods of
                    showers after 2400. Patchy fog after 2400 until
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.36-0.51 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then mostly
                    sunny (40-50 percent). Periods of showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms until 0800, then
                    isolated thunderstorms until 1100. scattered
                    showers after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1450).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.41 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1040).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400. scattered thunderstorms.
                    periods of showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.37-0.59 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Periods of showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms until 0800, then
                    numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
                    until 1100, then scattered showers until 1400.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1650).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.21-0.37 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph becoming west around 9
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1380).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JK



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