Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 210713
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...

.DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL SURGE INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING PEAK INSTABILITY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-212015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.55 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.37 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-212015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94...EXCEPT 79-84 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.31 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.25 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94...EXCEPT 78-83 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-212015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.49 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.47 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-212015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT 79-84 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.35 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.43 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 78-83 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-212015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
313 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.28 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.33 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR


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