Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 140759
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Heavy rain late today and tonight with strong winds developing
Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...Deep low pressure will develop in the central plains and
will cross nrn Michigan late tonight into Sunday, spreading moderate
to heavy rainfall across the region with 1 to 2 inch amounts expected.
A fall storm system will cross the Upper Great Lakes. Winds increase
tonight but will not be realized at the sfc until tomorrow when cold
advection kicks in behind a cold front. Strong gusts up to 40 knots
are expected out of the northwest. Weather will dry out again for
early next week with temperatures rebounding back into the 60s.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-142045-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 15 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.16 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog. Rain.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.69-1.01 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph increasing to
                    northwest around 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1150).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph increasing to north
                    around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.33-0.45 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-142045-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain.
                    Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.38 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog. Rain.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.73-1.20 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Rain until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph increasing to
                    northwest around 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1430).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to west around
                    33 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.34-0.47 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-142045-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog after
                    1200. Rain after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.19 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog. Rain.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.75-1.12 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1600).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 36 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.31-0.46 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-142045-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Slight
                    chance of rain until 1200. rain after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.33 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog. Rain and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.97-1.26 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1530).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 36 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.30-0.46 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-142045-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog.
                    Chance of rain until 1200. rain after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.46 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog. Rain.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.95-1.22 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Rain until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph increasing to
                    northwest around 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1600).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to west around
                    30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.45 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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