Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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925
FNUS53 KAPX 191926
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...LONG STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED...

.DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...WITH
THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER REMAINS DRY AIRMASS THAT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES
FALLING NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HURON
NATIONAL FOREST AREA.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MSB



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