Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 211954
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1600...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.13 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.40 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.27 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.18 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28-0.45 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-220830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.45 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.32 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





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