Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 280935
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...WARM DAYS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER TODAY
AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY...AND SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 0800.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 0800. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-282100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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