Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 301943
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON...DELIVERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEASONABLE AND PRECIPITATION-FREE
FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR LABOR DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-310815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.39 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-310815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-310815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-310815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-310815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.13 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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