Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 222001
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

...MILD AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND; RAIN TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY ALLOWING A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SUN AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230845-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230845-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230845-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-230845-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230845-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR



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