Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 280855
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH LINGERS UNTIL TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...GENERATING ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY EXITS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-282030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SWR





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