Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221017
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-222030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 0 TO 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
617 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SPRINKLES. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

BERGER





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