Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 301747
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...NEARING RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE:
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...DRY GROUND AND DEEP MIXING IS
RESULTING IN LOWER DEW POINTS...ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. HUMIDITIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY FALLEN INTO THE
LOWER 30S ALREADY. FURTHER WARMING A LOWERED DEW POINTS ARE
LIKELY TO GET HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 20S.
THUS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY OVER AT LEAST
SOME AREAS. IF THINGS ARE LOOKING TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WILL BE HOISTING A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TRAVERSE CITY/CADILLAC TO ALPENA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY COMBINED WITH A RECENT LACK OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-302030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-302030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 9
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-302030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-302030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-302030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
147 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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