Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 190947
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Gradually getting warmer...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is moving northeast, away from Michigan.
As it does so, our initial easterly low level flow will gradually
veer southerly. That will return warmer and more humid air to the
region. Highs will be mainly in the 70s today, and some spots will
poke into the lower 80s on Wednesday. Readings in the 80s will then
be common through the weekend. Sporadic and small rain chances will
occur, including a slight chance of showers this afternoon and
tonight in parts of northeast lower Michigan.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-192200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 31 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (380).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (300).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (430).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-192200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (330).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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