127
FNUS53 KAPX 041916
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Fire Weather:

...Showers expected tonight, milder temperatures this Sunday...

.DISCUSSION... A weak cold front will deliver showers to northern
Michigan tonight with a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms.
Precipitation will taper Sunday morning before cloud cover
diminishes during the day. RH`s are expected to remain above critical
thresholds with light northwest flow all day.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-050830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.19 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (500).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (343).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-050830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) until 1200, then
                    sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 21 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (607).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-050830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers likely after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (49).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the northwest
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.22 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (374).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (363).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-050830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers likely after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (45).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.13 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) until 1200, then
                    sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (473).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 39-44 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (417).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-050830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
316 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of rain showers after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (628).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (427).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

SJC