Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 240918
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY. BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AT LEAST
IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...RH LEVELS WILL STILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 25 PERCENT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S...AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL BE APPROACHED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS PRECIPITATION MIGHT NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WE WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE HUMID PATTERN BY LATE THIS WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-242200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.11 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-242200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-242200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-242200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.19 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-242200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
518 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
                    3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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