Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201949
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive tonight...

.DISCUSSION...Weak low pressure will strengthen as it moves across
northern Michigan Monday night, and into Quebec on Tuesday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances ahead of the low will arrive from northwest
to southeast tonight, and persist until Tuesday. The best chance for
rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning, when locally
heavy rainfall is possible.

Winds will be mainly from the southwest through Monday night, and
will be touch breezy at times, especially into this evening.
Breezier northwest winds are expected Tuesday, behind the departing
system. Humidity levels will be fairly high over the next couple of
days.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-211100-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400. chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.14 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1100. chance of showers.
                    chance of thunderstorms after 1100. Patchy fog
                    after 0700 until 1100.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (590).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.30 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. chance of showers
                    until 0200. showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.33-0.66 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers until
                    0800. showers likely after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1140).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.31-0.64 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-211100-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1400. chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (790).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.23 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. chance of showers
                    until 0200. showers likely after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.61 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0800. showers after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1250).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.33-0.73 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-211100-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2300 until 0500. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2300. chance of showers
                    after 0500.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of showers.
                    chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (800).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. chance of showers
                    until 0200. showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.35-0.59 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (65-75 percent). Showers until 0800.
                    showers likely after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.69 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-211100-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 0200 until 0500. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0200. chance of showers
                    after 0500.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of showers.
                    chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (900).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. chance of showers
                    until 0200. showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.55 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Showers until 0800.
                    showers likely after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1140).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.30-0.42 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-211100-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1400, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1100).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph increasing to west
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.23 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. chance of showers
                    until 0200. showers likely after 0200.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.60 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    until 1400.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1340).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.36-0.67 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND
70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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