Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 220710
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Heavy rain possible today and tonight...

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front will interact with
increasingly deep moisture to produce periods of showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. Any thunderstorms that do form will
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Rain totals in excess
of an inch are possible across much of northern lower Michigan by
Friday morning. Cool temperatures and periods of unsettled weather
will follow this front through the upcoming weekend.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.53 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.45-0.93 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.27 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.39 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.58-0.91 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800, THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.35 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.39-0.53 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.54-0.98 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.25 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-222100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.54 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS WITH
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.60-0.97 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.50 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000, THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 0200,
                    THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.49-0.93 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800, THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.30 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB



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