Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 270917
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY THEN LOOKING DRIER...

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THUS BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...
MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...THOUGH PERHAPS A TOUCH
DRIER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY.
EXPECT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY BREEZE THURSDAY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-272115-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-272115-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-272115-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-272115-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.23 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-272115-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......11300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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