Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 130848
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MICHIGAN
TODAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER DOWN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-132030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-132030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.11 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-132030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-132030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-132030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
448 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





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