Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 210731
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Elevated fire danger this afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...Very warm temperatures and breezy conditions will
occur again this afternoon...leading to elevated fire danger. Cold
front will slip through the region on Sunday bringing some needed
rainfall to northern lower Michigan. However...before the arrival
of the front and associated showers...there may be a window of
opportunity across northeast lower Michigan for warm temperatures/
breezy conditions and elevated fire danger once again.

Temperatures turn progressively colder through next week along
with additional chances for showers.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-212200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 8 to 12 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (490).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (640).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to around 27 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.21 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-212200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 8 to 12 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (620).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.12 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-212200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.24 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-212200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 48-53 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (790).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph increasing to around 24 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.10-0.23 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-212200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 8 to 12 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (520).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.15 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$





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