Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231949
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-240815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0200
                    UNTIL 0500. PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200.
                    PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0500. PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
                    0800. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200. PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-240815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
                    PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2400. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200.
                    PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-240815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2100 UNTIL 0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN UNTIL 0500. PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 0200.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200.
                    PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
349 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0200
                    UNTIL 0500. PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
                    0800. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200. PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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