Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 191906
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Warm through the remainder of the weekend into early next week...

.DISCUSSION...Partly sunny skies and gradually warming temperatures
continue across the bulk of northern Michigan this afternoon. There
remains a small threat for isolated showers/storms across far northeast
Lower where afternoon lake breeze convergence is maximized. Next threat
for showers and storms arrives Monday-Tuesday as a cold front
approaches the region.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2100 until 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (960).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.26 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 0800. Chance of showers
                    after 1400.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (500).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.10-0.20 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1900. Slight chance of rain
                    showers until 2000. Patchy fog after 2300.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1120).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 0800, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.16 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2300. Patchy fog after 2300.
Min Temperature.....56-61...except 66-71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (860).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.30 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 0800. Chance of showers.
                    chance of thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (550).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.20 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2300.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (900).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.35 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 0800, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (730).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.22 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1900. Patchy
                    fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 0800, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1120).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.17 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG



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