Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 260741
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. PLEASE DO BE AWARE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO PLEASE
REMAIN ALERT OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS BY THEN...BUT IT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...AS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.70 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.36-0.70 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.17 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.40 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-270000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.40 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.68 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

LAWRENCE



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