Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 290850
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...TRENDING WETTER TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...ENDING UP OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL DELIVER A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON LABOR DAY...AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE REGION.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-292015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.20 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.46 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-292015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SPRINKLES LIKELY AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.39 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-292015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1100...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.28 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28-0.43 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-292015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.38 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-292015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SPRINKLES LIKELY AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.43 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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