Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 211950
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

...MUCH COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE
TODAY...WITH WET WEATHER LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH CHILLIER
AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR
WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. AFTER TODAY...OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM
THE PLAINS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD OR A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-221100-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AFTER 0400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.16 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 14 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 37-42 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-221100-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.19 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 17 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 18
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-221100-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AFTER 0400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 14 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-221100-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-221100-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ





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