Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 261920
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...WARM AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL USHER IN A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ROUTINELY BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.31 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.28 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.27 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.16 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-270830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (960).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.17 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.25 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.11 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.21 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR


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