Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 211943
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FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Remaining mostly cloudy, cool and showery...

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff upper level low pressure system parked
over the region will send pieces of energy across the forecast
area through midweek. This will lead to additional showers at
times as well as more cool temperatures through at least midweek.
There is a slight chance for thunder across the southern fire
weather zones Tuesday afternoon as models indicate that we get a
little unstable. After a short break in the action Friday, there
will be additional chances for showers next weekend.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0700, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.35 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400, THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.24 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0400 UNTIL 0500, THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1100, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.37 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-220815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0400 UNTIL 0500, THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400, THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.30 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400, THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.41 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS



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