378
FNUS53 KAPX 011843
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday night...

.DISCUSSION...Precipitation-free weather continues tonight through much of
Thursday with highs in the 60s for most ares. Lighter winds
tonight through Thursday, eventually turning out of the east-southeast
Thursday afternoon. RHs expected to bottom out in the 40s and 50s on
Thursday ahead of additional rain chances arriving later Thursday/
Thursday night into Friday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-020815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (85).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.38 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (192).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.30 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-020815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (93).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (199).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (53).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.29 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (237).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.29 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-020815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    east in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (82).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.34 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (174).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.21 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-020815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (299).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.22 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (191).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.12 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-020815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
243 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (74).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (288).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (221).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.19 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

SJC