Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 142104
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
504 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the region tonight, bringing a
period of rain and possibly some thunderstorms to the Western
Southern Tier. High pressure will then ridge across the region,
with cool but fair weather late Friday through Saturday. A cold
front will move through Saturday night, which will be followed
by colder weather along with some rain or snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Radar showing the leading edge of some showers crossing the forecast
area with a brief break in the showers over far southwestern NY
ahead of the main batch of rain. The first batch of showers is
developing along a stationary frontal boundary which extends from
west to east across the area. A convectively enhanced wave of low
pressure will track along this boundary, producing a steady and at
times moderate rainfall which will move across the region this
evening.

The steadiest rains will be just to the north of a 50 knot LLJ,
which will include Buffalo, Rochester, and areas north. Expect a
rather soaking rainfall this evening, where mesoscale guidance
shows a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain. South of
this, precipitation will be more convective in nature, with more
variable precipitation amounts. MUCAPE values up to around 200
J/Kg and upstream convection suggest a few thunderstorms are
possible across the Western Southern Tier through this evening.
Because of the strong wind fields aloft, there could be some
stronger storms to our south and west, however weak and elevated
instability will mitigate the severe weather risk in our area.

Winds shift to the north after the surface low moves by late
tonight, with precipitation diminishing and/or transitioning to
light upslope showers or drizzle. Lingering moisture may result
in patchy fog, especially in locations which upslope in this
flow.

Precipitation will taper off during the day Friday, as the low
moves further away, winds diminish, and drier air works in.
Clouds will linger much of the day. It`ll be cooler with highs
in the mid 40s to around 50, but this is still nearly 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A fast-moving mid level shortwave and accompanying weak surface
`cool` front will slide across the area Friday night. May be just
enough moisture and forcing across the eastern Lake Ontario region
to produce a few scattered light rain and higher elevation wet snow
showers as it passes through, while the remainder of the region
stays mainly dry. Late Friday night and Saturday surface high
pressure will nose in from the southwest while weak transient ridge
aloft slides overhead bringing a dry start to our weekend. A strong
cold front associated with digging upper level trough over the
upper/central Lakes will be approaching from southwestern Ontario
later in the day. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of this
boundary along with strengthening winds off the deck will slowly
ramp up southwesterly flow through the day with wind gusts up to 25-
30 mph from the Genesee Valley west during the afternoon, strongest
across the Niagara Frontier. Highs will be mainly low to mid 50s
across the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario, with mid to upper
40s elsewhere.

A vigorous lead shortwave will dive southeast into the base of the
digging main upper level trough Saturday night, while associated
surface low pressure moves eastward to just south of James Bay. This
will shove a strong trailing cold front through western and
northcentral NY overnight, bringing some measurable precipitation to
the region. This will be mainly in the liquid form, however some wet
snow will be possible across the higher terrain with perhaps a
slushy coating of snow possible on elevated and grassy surfaces.
Basin average rainfall will be around a tenth of an inch, with up to
0.20" across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Tug
Hill/western Dacks. This boundary will also open the door to an
initial batch of colder air, that will only deepen through the day
Sunday into Sunday night with the airmass eventually taking on a
much more winter-like feel. Plenty of lingering moisture and lift
aloft will keep some showers going through our St. Patrick`s Day,
most numerous through the first half of the day. Warming mid-March
near-surface temperatures will allow even most higher terrain areas
to go over to plain rain by late morning, although much colder air
will be right off the deck, so may see some wet flakes mixed in even
with temps above freezing. Precipitation should become lighter and
more scattered in nature Sunday afternoon as mid level support
slides east of the area. Another component will be some windy
conditions, with westerly gusts of 30-35 mph. Putting it all
together, it will be a chilly and potentially damp day to be outside
for any festivities. Sunday`s temps will be much cooler, with
daytime highs mainly mid to upper 30s higher terrain and low to mid
40s elsewhere, a bit below average for this time of year.

Airmass off the deck will continue to grow progressively cooler
Sunday night, with lake effect snow showers becoming increasingly
likely east of the Lakes during the second half of the night.
Westerly winds will remain elevated overnight also as the next cold
front approaches from the northwest. Lows Sunday night will fall
back into the mid and upper 20s across the majority of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deep upper level trough will swing across the eastern US early
next week. Cooler air will move into the eastern Great Lakes region
and bring periods of below normal temperatures and snow showers
especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A secondary cold front will move across the region Monday. Ongoing
lake enhanced snow showers early Monday will likely blossom and
become cellular through Monday afternoon. Northwest flow will direct
lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes with snow showers
continuing Monday night when the core of the coldest air (-12C at
850mb) is overhead. Surface high pressure will build into western NY
Tuesday with snow showers weakening but still around through the
afternoon. Accumulating snow is possible Monday through Tuesday
especially at night and across the higher terrain. High temperatures
will reach the mid to upper 30s across the lower elevations Monday
and Tuesday.

The region will remain on the backside of an upper level trough
Wednesday through Thursday. Initially, warm air advection will bump
temperatures back to near normal (upper 30s to mid 40s) Wednesday
and Thursday. Uncertainty grows mid-week with the potential for one
or multiple shortwave troughs to move near the region. A low chance
of precipitation will continue through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cigs will be slow to drop as moisture and showers increase, with VFR
likely to last for a couple hours before heavier rain moves across
Western NY this evening. Expect MVFR vsby and cigs in heavier rains.
Across the Western Southern Tier a few thunderstorms are possible
through this evening, with some storms already upstream of this area.

A wave of low pressure will track from west to east across the
area tonight, with fairly high confidence in IFR or lower
conditions after the low passes by and shifts winds to the
north. Some fog is also possible in the northerly upslope flow,
with vsby below a mile at times, especially across higher
terrain.

Low will exit to the east Friday, with drier air and gradually
improving conditions during the day. Mainly IFR flight
conditions will giveway to MVFR to VFR flight conditons by
Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will track along a west to east oriented front
which is draped across the region. Northeasterly winds will
increase ahead of the low, and then will shift to the north and increase
a bit more following its passage. Stronger winds won`t last
long, but are enough to support small craft headlines for the
south shores of Lake Ontario this evening through tonight.

Low pressure will exit east of the region by early Friday
morning with winds slowly subsiding as high pressure builds into
the region. There may still be some light to modest chop on the
lakes but wave action will lessen by Friday afternoon and
evening. Light winds and wave action will persist into Saturday
before the next chance of small craft conditions arrives on
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...Apffel


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