Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
FXUS61 KBUF 301729
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
High pressure centered from the western Great Lakes to the
Mississippi Valley early this afternoon...will move to New England
by Wednesday afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will return
Thursday ahead of the next cold front that will move through the
region by Thursday evening.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very dry airmass from H8 to H4 per 12Z regional soundings over the
Great lakes and this airmass will remain in place through Tuesday.
Scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening...and will
reform Tuesday afternoon along and inland from the lake breezes. Low
level moisture in the southern tier valleys will condense into fog
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night will feature very comfortable sleeping
conditions...as a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will
encourage temperatures to drop off into the 50s. Its not out of
the question that some 40s are experienced across the North
Country and in the normally cooler Southern Tier valleys.
On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Carolina coastline and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.
A short lived push of warmer...more humid conditions will be
experienced over our region in advance of a cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday. The deepening southerly flow on the backside of
the exiting ridge but ahead of the front will push our dew points
back up over 60...especially over the far western counties. This
will once again set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms as
the aforementioned cold front passes through late Thursday afternoon
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.
The Western Atlantic Ridge responsible for record heat...and even
for helping to fuel scattered strong to severe convection over the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Regions...will give way to a
progressive low amplitude flow during the course of the week. As we
push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow along
the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as anomalously
strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain West. The
resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region will
allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south. With H85
temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will be in
the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the warm
In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.
A look further down the road...
Medium range ensembles strongly suggest that the longwave trough
will not only remain in place over eastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region through the first full week of June...but that a deep
upper level low will close off over Quebec. This would keep any
oppressive heat and humidity well south of our region...with
temperatures likely settling to below normal values. This scenario
is also supported by the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature
forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z Tuesday for most locations. There is a low
chance for IFR conditions at KJHW between 08Z and 11Z as patchy fog
may form. Surface winds at or below 15 knots.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday under high
pressure. Winds will increase to around 15 knots which will produce
choppy wave action but still well below small craft advisory
criteria. A cold front passing through late Thursday may bring
thunderstorms with gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure will
build into the area late Friday and Saturday.