Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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045
FXUS61 KBUF 051846
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO AND EXCEED NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEARING THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND. RADARS DEPICT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORMING WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE OF A LINGERING LOW LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. THOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AS OF YET OVER OUR REGION THE LIMITED INSTABILITY OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG COULD PRODUCE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES FARTHER SEWARD EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO WANE EARLY THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION
DRY. WE SHOULD THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TO
APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS.

TOMORROW AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE IT WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK OVER
OUR REGION...THIS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WITHIN THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS HERE...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NW AREAS OF WNY
AND THE SLV. THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY TOMORROW AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
TOMORROW...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...A 4 TO 6C 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
50S OVER THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. AS THE THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLS
OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WHILE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOOK POSSIBLE EXPECT
MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
STILL IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE
IS REALIZED. LAKESHORE AREAS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SET UP.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO OPEN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LASTEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IT WILL
CONSOLIDATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON BAY AS
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS
THE REGION.

IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOPED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 50S. FOR THE MOST PART...THE DAY WILL BE DRY
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SOME ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WITH THE OVERLYING JET LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TEMPERATURE TREND. THIS WILL
INCLUDE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MERCURY READINGS.

RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL SUPPLY OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH FINE WEATHER...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR PCPN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN THE A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z A NORTHEAST WIND IS SENDING A LOW DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE CLOUDS FROM KIAG TO ABOUT KROC. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT KJHW AND CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUCH THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AIRFIELD...OR
NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES UPON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE WE SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS...WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/MVFR
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC/KDSV.
MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH SATURDAY A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS PREDOMINATING...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL WAVES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
YIELD LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ERIE...SUCH THAT WAVES MAY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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