Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES LINGER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SOME
BREAKS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THAT THESE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS. THUS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY...WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING
IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL BACK TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...ALSO WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR






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