Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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420 FXUS61 KBUF 101045 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy frontal boundary to our south will keep some rain across the area through tonight. The most persistent chances for wet weather will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure wave continuing to develop over the Mid Atlantic region along nearly stationary frontal boundary extending back through the Ohio Valley. Area of rain north of the boundary will expand northward today as an inverted trough north of the surface wave gradually shifts westward through the region. The better coverage of steadier rain will focus across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes tapering down to scattered showers across the Niagara Frontier and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Cloud cover, rain and a north to northeast low level flow will keep temperatures below average with much of the area only reaching in the 50s for afternoon highs. A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area tonight, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee Valley eastward. Lows temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level trough will dig into the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday. An associated area of low pressure over Lower Michigan will slowly move towards western NY. Initially, mostly dry weather is expected Saturday morning. A few showers will remain possible from residual moisture from a departing mid-level trough east of Lake Ontario. Strong ascent and modest moisture will enter western NY by Saturday afternoon. Showers will increase in coverage, while additional showers may develop along a prefrontal trough across central and north central NY through the afternoon. Unfavorable conditions for thunderstorms due to cool and cloudy conditions with a weak wind field. However, due to the sharp trough digging into the region during peak heating, a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across the western Southern Tier into Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts will average 0.10-0.25 inches Saturday through Saturday night. Higher amounts expected in any thunderstorms across the western Southern Tier. The mid-level trough will catch up with the surface reflection and this stacked system will weaken as it sits over the forecast area Saturday night. Showers will be possible across most of the region overnight. Drier air may limit shower chances across the Niagara Frontier. The mid-level trough outruns the low-level low and moves east of the region Sunday. The surface low will continue to weaken across the forecast area. Unfortunately this will lead to another cool and mostly cloudy day with low chances for light showers. Ridging and warm air advection will result in dry weather Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will move into the eastern Great Lakes as another potent shortwave moves across the Central Plains Monday. A warm front will move through the forecast area and showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday through Monday night. Weak troughing will move into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly cross the forecast area and unsettled conditions will persist into mid-week. There is good agreement that ridging will move into the Great Lakes region while a large area of high pressure extends from eastern Canada to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry weather is likely across the forecast area during this time. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue early this morning at all TAF sites with cigs at or above 6K feet. There will be some patchy light rain, but any restrictions should be limited to some MVFR VSBY in patchy fog across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across just the entire area today. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS (3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late morning on. Outlook... Tonight...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering rain showers also ending from west to east. Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood for showers. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. && .MARINE... Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15 knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft conditions forecast. Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...JM/RSH/TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...JM/TMA MARINE...JM/TMA