Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 020525
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUT OF THE TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WHILE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS IN RESIDUAL STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF FLOODING.

THE FIRST AREA IS IN WAYNE COUNTY WHERE STORMS HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT
OF THE COUNTY. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY...AND WHILE ADDITIONAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WATER IN THE FLOODED AREAS WILL
BE SLOW TO RECEDE. HYDRO RELATED WARNINGS FOR WAYNE COUNTY WILL END
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF MIDNIGHT...PENDING THE LOCATION WITHIN THE
COUNTY.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS PRODUCED MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY EAST OF LIMESTONE.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 1 AM.

OTHERWISE...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM ALLEGANY STATE PARK IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE FACT THAT THE STORMS ARE ONLY
MOVING AT ABOUT 15 KTS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTACT...BUT THIS RISK SHOULD
BE MINIMIZED BY A SOMEWHAT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMS...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL THEN FUEL CONVECTION BROUGHT
ABOUT BY A COMBINED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF A
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...IT SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED
FOR MOST AREAS WITH POPS INCREASING TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF OUR EASTERN CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. AS
THIS FEATURE CROSSES OUR REGION IT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
WHILE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LACK OF
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE
LIGHTER WINDS MAY STILL ALLOW PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500MB TROUGHINESS WILL LIE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THEN MODELS HINT AT WEST COAST RIDGING BUILDING EAST
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY
TUESDAY FALLING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A FEW DRY DAYS
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS
UP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

ON SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE DAY BUT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN ONSHORE BREEZES DURING THE DAYS...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
BREEZES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN




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