Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 031433
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TREND TOWARDS A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED SUN...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AS DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE
SHADOWS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT BECOMES ACTIVE IT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...SO EXPECT MOST OF
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL. SOME FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LAKE TEMP.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DESPITE THIS
ACTIVITY...THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.