Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 271457
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 15Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA OVER
LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR REGION INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK. PLENTY OF STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL DECK SEEN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

SPEAKING OF THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN
AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD
ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR
READINGS TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 15Z...MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE BUF...ROC AND JHW TERMINALS
WITH OUR TWO NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS (IAG/ART) NOW BOTH VFR AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A STILL A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ART. EXPECT THE TREND
TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES GOING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...A MID LEVEL DECK SEEN UPSTREAM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD TEMPS ALOFT WILL BECOME JUST COOL ENOUGH ON A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS VERY
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR
WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.