Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271323
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
923 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED RIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ONLY THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FAR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION FOR IT YET TO PASS THROUGH. FRONT IS
SLOWING DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY 15Z OR SO. EXPECT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS
MORNING AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR SOME OF THIS OUT.
THEREFORE ALSO EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DECK TRAVERSES THE
AREA.

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR
READINGS TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 13Z...MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS BUF/IAG/ROC TERMINALS IN THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS JHW JUST
AHEAD OF THE SLOWING COLD FRONT. ART TERMINAL HAS LOW VFR CIGS AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SOME
SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY TO HAVE A MID LEVEL DECK
LEFT BEHIND FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ART. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT
FIRST...WITH THE INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NOT IMPROVING TO
MVFR UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY NOT BECOMING VFR
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. AFTER
THIS...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE ANY CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK CROSSING THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BECOME JUST COOL ENOUGH ON A NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS TO
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS VERY
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR
WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







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