Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 221136
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

NYZ001-002-010-011-222115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           70           40
PRECIP TYPE                  FRZ RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES
MAX/MIN TEMP                       43           40           48
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 15                     SW 10
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 18        SW 19         S  9
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.05         0.11         0.02
PRECIP DURATION                     4            6            1
PRECIP BEGIN                    11 AM   CONTINUING        12 PM
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         4 AM   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               52           84           73
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              1250          260          940
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 15        SW 16        SW 12
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               18750         4160        11280
DISPERSION INDEX                   19            4           11
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-222115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           70           30
PRECIP TYPE                  FRZ RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES
MAX/MIN TEMP                       40           37           47
AM WIND (MPH)                    S 14                     SW 11
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 18        SW 18         S 10
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.08         0.13         0.02
PRECIP DURATION                     5            6            2
PRECIP BEGIN                    11 AM   CONTINUING        11 AM
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         3 PM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               47           82           66
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)               890          200          640
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 20        SW 12         S 10
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               17800         2400         6400
DISPERSION INDEX                   18            2            6
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-222115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           60           40
PRECIP TYPE                      RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES
MAX/MIN TEMP                       41           40           49
AM WIND (MPH)                    S 12                     SW  9
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 16        SW 16         S  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.02         0.05         0.01
PRECIP DURATION                     2            5            1
PRECIP BEGIN                     1 PM   CONTINUING         3 PM
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         4 AM   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               46           79           69
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              1000          300          850
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 19        SW 13         S 10
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               19000         3900         8500
DISPERSION INDEX                   19            4            9
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-222115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           80            0
PRECIP TYPE                 SNOW/RAIN     FRZ RAIN         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       38           33           46
AM WIND (MPH)                    S 11                     SW  8
PM WIND (MPH)                    S 13         S 12         S  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.10         0.30         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                     5            9
PRECIP BEGIN                    12 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         6 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               51           86           75
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2830          340         1660
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S 14        SW 12        SW 11
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               39620         4080        18260
DISPERSION INDEX                   40            4           18
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND MONDAY...BREEZY. SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...BREEZY. WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

$$







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