Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020424
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1224 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...UPDATED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...

ORIGINAL...I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA THERE IS NO WAY FOR THE AIRMASS
TO MODIFY. ALREADY SEEING THE CONVECTION NEAR CHICAGO DISSIPATING
AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT EVEN SEE THUNDER OF LIGHTNING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP WITH BEST
CHANCES MOST OF THE AREA NOT TILL AFTER 06Z. BY DAYBREAK THE
PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ON TO AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER AND THAT IS IT. THE LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY SEEING SEVERE WEATHER ARE 20 PLUS
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AREA. OTHER MINOR CHANGES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOSE TO 60 TOWARDS
CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR HIGHS TO STILL BE CLOSE TO 60. SHOWERS
WILL FILL IN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH A -26C COLD POOL AT 500MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN THE SAME.   LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.   BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OR DEVELOP. IFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND NON-VFR LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS LIGHTEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE
NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB



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