Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER NE OH AND NW PA WILL MOVE EAST AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA. OVER NW OHIO VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SO WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. WITH THE SKY COVER BEING VARIABLE THAT
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON THE LOWS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO NOT
ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM...PATCHY 4 MILES IN FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. ONLY NW PA HAS A SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THERE THE PRECIP PROBABLY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
HUNDREDTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP JUST FOR NW PA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WARM TO PLUS 14
DEGREES OR SO AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM WITH HIGH PROBABLY GETTING INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED IN THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FIELDS.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BUT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LARGER AREAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL ALSO ADD MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. LAKE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHORT BREAK TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH WILL BE
WEAK SINCE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHINESS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH
WITH THE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW PATCHES OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE JUST PAST FDY BY 18Z AND NEAR ERI AND YNG BY 00Z. SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. A
BAND OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON SAT.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 13 TO 15Z SAT MORNING AND START GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THEN BECOME W WITH FROPA AND GUST TO 25
KNOTS SAT AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND TRAJECTORY AT
THIS POINT COULD PUSH HIGHEST WAVES JUST BEYOND THE 5 NM RANGE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING HIGHER WAVES INTO THE
SHORE FROM ABOUT FAIRPORT HARBOR NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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