Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311800
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY IN THE EAST WITH WAA...SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER SOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID TWEAKED CLOUD COVER. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

WARM ADVECTION IS GENERATING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN ANTICIPATED AND
HAS PRODUCED CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY. SINCE THERE WILL BE LESS SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED EARLIER
THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES. HAD ALREADY GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SO
WILL NOT ADJUST HIGHS DOWNWARD AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REACH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PLAINS
LOW TO MOVE CLOSER.

WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE ERIE
AND CLIP PORTIONS OF NW PA. AT THIS POINT ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THE REGION WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL START OUT BELOW
ZERO. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD NUDGE HIGHS INTO THE
20S...MAYBE EVEN TOUCH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL
TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE PATH OF THE 8H LOW IN EACH MODEL RUN. ITS TRACK
WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURS. FOR THIS FORECAST
WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD A ECMWF/GFS BLEND WHICH TAKES THE 8H LOW
FROM ABOUT MARION SUNDAY EVENING EASTWARD TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS TRACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THE BEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER THE LATEST INDICATIONS
PLACE IT FROM FINDLAY TO NEAR CLEVELAND. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE LOCATION FOR THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY NOT BECOME EVIDENT UNTIL THE HEAVY SNOW HAS
BEGUN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION WILL START AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE 8H LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT AMOUNTS. THIS
IS THE REASON WHY THE LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRAPHICS HAVE LOWER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WE DID TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE CIPS DATA FROM ST LOUIS UNIVERSITY
WHICH LOOKS AT THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN AND GIVES OUTPUT FROM
EVENTS OF THE PAST. IT INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
4 OR MORE INCHES WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES COMMON. WHILE THERE
HAVE BEEN CASES WHERE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN THIS
PATTERN IT IS ONLY INDICATING THAT THIS OCCURS 20 OR SO PERCENT OF
THE TIME. SO IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF AROUND A FOOT.

SO WITH ALL THIS SAID WE WILL HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THE WATCH AT
THIS POINT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER
30S SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE TO
PLACE THIS GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION INTO THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO DIP BELOW
ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FLATTENED RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE
DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CANADA CONTRIBUTE
TO A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH FOR EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS US ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH A TEMPORARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN ITS
WAKE. HAVE LINGERED SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...BUT
POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL DETERMINE IF THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY OR
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. H8 TEMPERATURES DIP TO COLDER THAN -14C...WITH
DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD YET AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. LIMITED LAKE
INFLUENCE WITH THE ICE COVERAGE...BUT STILL COULD PERPETUATE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AREA COULD SEE SUB-ZERO LOWS AGAIN. THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND A SLIGHT WARM UP IS FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS STILL BRUSHING NE OH/NW PA. IT
WILL SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST
NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP 035 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO KERI AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR LAKE ERIE. HEAVY
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. VERY
DIFFICULT AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AT KCAK AND KYNG SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
MONDAY AND CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE WITH
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH GALE FORCE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. ON MONDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING. THE
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CLOSE SHIPPING LANES AND MAKE FOR DIFFICULT NAVIGATION. PRESSURING
AND RIDGING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS ALSO FORECAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON ARRIVES MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...DJB/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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