Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 302258
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRIED TO REFINE THE HOURLY FORECAST TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO...AT
LEAST NOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWERED THE POP ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAD POPPED UP EARLIER
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO BE LATER. WE
COULD SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH ACROSS NW
OHIO COMPARED TO NE OH/NW PA AND WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOULD BE A NICE WARM EVENING IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS DROPPING BACK
FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER AND MID 70S THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.