Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271601
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1201 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
High pressure is weakly in place across the region. A cold front
will sag south across the Great Lakes on Thursday and stall across
Ohio for Friday and Saturday. High pressure will then ease into
the area on Sunday and Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A high pressure system is centered over our area and dry conditions
with dewpoints in the upper 50s and temperatures in the upper 80s will make
for a comfortable summer day. Temperatures will only reach into the mid
80s for the far NE, and a few places in the central and west will probably
hit 90 today. Not expecting any precipitation. Some fair weather cumulus
will develop for the afternoon. A lake shore breeze developing this afternoon
will moderate the temperatures and keep that area slightly cooler by a couple
of degrees than the rest of the region. The lake shore breeze will also push
some clouds inland this afternoon that will dissipate by the evening hours.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As is the case this time of year...features are not overly strong
and therefore timing and confidence in areal coverage are not that
high. But for the period from Thursday through Saturday night we
will have some chance for rain. We will benefit from weak
troughing across the Great Lakes and the cooler temperatures aloft
and less of a cap than we have had in the recent past. But forcing
is weak. There is decent agreement amongst the models on the weak
front sagging south across Ontario to northern Ohio on
Thursday/Friday and lingering somewhere across Ohio through
Saturday. This boundary would be the primary focus for
showers/thunderstorms. This still only give a very broad period of
30 to 50 percent chances to work with...but hopefully with time
the precip chances can be refined. Start precip chances Thursday
morning. There is a chance that it could be a little earlier...but
counting on the recent trend that these fronts are slow to move
and the dry atmosphere in place. Thursday morning may end up being
too early. Better chances arrive for late Thursday night through
Friday. The ECMWF lingers this chance into Saturday with a weak
low riding the front. Temperatures will be seasonable and will
stick with mid/upper 80s for Thursday and a few degrees cooler
for Friday and Saturday. Night lows generally in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad trough will be over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region
on Sunday to start the extended forecast. High pressure at the
surface will be located north of Lake Erie with a weak frontal
boundary in place across the Ohio Valley. Energy aloft may kick off
some thunderstorms, with best chances in the southeastern counties
before we start to dry out on Monday. The ridge aloft expands
eastward overhead from Monday into Tuesday with mostly sunny skies
and a warming trend. Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday then
climb back into the mid and upper 80s as we move through the first
part of next week.
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle. A band of clouds
in the 5-10K foot range remains across central Ohio will tend to
clear through 15Z. Skies will be mostly clear for the remainder of
the TAF cycle. Winds will generally be 8 knots or less with lake
breezes developing this afternoon. Lake breezes will impact CLE/ERI
with a winds shift to the west/northwest around 16Z and may extend
as far inland as MFD/CAK/YNG this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon through Sunday and early morning BR.
Lake breezes will develop this afternoon with high pressure
overhead. A weak frontal boundary is expected to push south across
Lake Erie Thursday afternoon with northeasterly winds increasing to
10-15 knots on Thursday night. Waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet.
High pressure will be located north of the lake from Friday through
the weekend with good marine conditions. Winds will remain out of
the east or northeast near 10 knots.