Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031346
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY POP AND WX GRIDS. OLD CONVECTIVE ANVIL
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST CONVECTIVE CU CAN REFORM
AND SHOWERS/TSTMS REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STILL
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOING WITH MORNING ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA FROM NEAR THE THUMB OF MI SW TO
NEAR SOUTH BEND INDIANA. AREA FOR CONCERN FOR CONVECTION WILL
INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A KCLE- KMNN LINE FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW CAPES REACH 2900 J/KG AT KCAK BY
6PM. BACKED OFF LIKELY AS BEST CAPES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
LAST NIGHT. THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LAST ANALYZED JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 PLUS KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDER IN THE
TAFS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS


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