Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 230227
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
927 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on
Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into
Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and
drift northward as a warm front Thursday night. A strong low
will move across the central Great Lakes Friday night forcing a
strong cold front across Ohio and into western Pennsylvania
Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast looks on track, so no major changes to the forecast
with this update.

Original discussion...
Another unseasonably warm night is expected as southwesterly
winds increase ahead of a cold front that will sag into the area
on Thursday. The front should be close enough toward sunrise to
have a mention of showers in the forecast after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening cold front will move into the area Thursday morning
but it should stall as it reaches central Ohio. Expect
scattered showers to develop along the cold front in the
morning with them likely continuing into the afternoon. Warm
advection increases Thursday night with showers likely across
much of the region. There looks as if there will be enough
elevated instability have a mention of thunder in the forecast.
The warm front is expected to lift north of the lake at some
point on Friday. However there is some uncertainty how much
influence the cold lake will have on its movement. Strong jet
energy will be moving into the region by Friday afternoon with
thunderstorms expected to develop over Indiana or western Ohio.
The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms has increased
significantly. More details will come over the next couple
shifts.

The cold front moves across the area Saturday morning with the
showers slowly ending from west to east. However the showers
will linger into Saturday night and should begin to mix with
some snow as it ends. Accumulations appear they will be light at
this point.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue into Friday. Friday
will be the warmest day of the short term with any locations
near to slightly above 70 degrees. A few locations will make a
run at all time highs for the month of February. Cooler Saturday
in the wake of the front with early highs in the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be moving in from the south on Sunday. This
should keep any lingering snow showers confined to northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. All precipitation should come to an end
by Sunday evening as the ridge axis moves east of the area. Near
normal temperatures on Sunday will warm to a few degrees above
normal by Monday as southwesterly flow returns.

Large differences continue between the long-range global models next
week. The GFS is faster, wetter, and stronger than the ECMWF with a
system approaching from the Southern Plains Sunday night into
Monday. There is too much uncertainty at this point to go into any
details, but it does look like there will at least be a good shot at
some snow showers Sunday night changing over to rain on Monday.

Both models show another storm system approaching Tuesday night into
Wednesday with more rain and temperatures well above normal once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread MVFR conditions will continue through the evening
hours likely dropping in places to IFR and possibly LIFR
towards morning in fog and low cigs. Conditions should rise
slowly back to MVFR Thursday afternoon. It is possible a few
spots could see low end VFR CIGs for a few hour period late
Thursday afternoon northwest.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues Thursday/Thursday night then returns
Friday evening/overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots tonight as low
pressure approaches from the west. This will drop a weak cold front
south of the lake Thursday turning winds around to the north as they
weaken. Winds will turn out of the east Thursday night before
veering around to the south on Friday as the front lifts north of
the lake as a warm front. Winds will increase to 10-20 knots Friday.

A strong cold front will move from west to east across Lake Erie
late Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will turn to the
southwest behind the front and Small Craft Advisories may be needed
for the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Mottice



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