Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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990
FXUS61 KCLE 300004
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
804 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of Lake Erie will shift to New England on
Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southern Plains on
Thursday and drift east across Lake Erie on Friday. This system will
move off the east coast Saturday with high pressure expanding across
the local area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure located north of the area will shift to New England
overnight. Upper level ridge remains overhead. Expect to see high
cloud cover spread east over the cwa followed by mid level clouds so
the cwa should be cloudy west to mostly cloudy east by the end of
the night. Low levels are dry which will make it difficult for the
shra west of the area to make it into the western counties until
after midnight. For better collaboration, will increase pops for the
end of the night.

Lows will range from the lower 30s in NW PA to near 40 in the
southwestern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Deep upper level trough over the Plains will lift into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley on Thursday then across Central Ohio on Friday. At
the surface, a warm front will lift north into the area on Thursday
with the typical delays expected near Lake Erie. Kept
temperatures in the 40s at Toledo with the front not lifting
north of the Lake until Friday. Moisture advection will ramp up
across the area on Thursday and expect a leading band of showers
to lift northeast across the area from mid-morning through late
afternoon. Better chances of rain and increasing chances of
thunderstorms will arrive from the west late in the day with the
approach of a 500mb jet streak. Widespread rain with scattered
thunderstorms expected Thursday night but will have to monitor
to see what role robust convection plays that will develop upstream
across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley.

Surface low will move into northwest Ohio on Friday morning.
Some breaks will start to develop in the showers as drier air
gets wrapped into the system. Diurnally enhanced showers will
likely fill back in during the afternoon. As the low pulls away
to the east, northerly flow will pull the cold front south
behind it with cooler air returning Friday night and Saturday.
QPF on Thursday and Friday is expected to range from three
quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter unless moisture
transport gets disrupted by the upstream convection. The
moisture depth becomes shallow by Saturday morning with clouds
scattering out from the north as high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall upper level pattern still progressive with time.  Models
suggest periods of ridging with troughiness moving east across the
lower 48. However, deep trough digging into the Pacific northwest
will cause amplification of the ridge in the eastern United States
by mid week.

The forecast area will see transitioning periods of waves of low
pressure alternated with areas of high pressure. So, the current
pattern continues through the early and middle part of next week.

This pattern will still keep the polar jet stream well north of the
area keeping the arctic cold air out of the forecast area for the
time being.  Some hints indicate a brief shot of cold air by the end
of the week.

Surface high pressure will exit to the east on Sunday allowing a
southern stream low pressure system to move northeast toward the
area. This system will initially have limited moisture associated
with it but will eventually tap into some gulf moisture by Monday
night and force it north into the area.  The low will track east
into the Carolinas by Tuesday allowing high pressure to build in
from the north. The high will push east to the mid atlantic coast as
yet another storm system with limited moisture begins to approach
from the west on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Ceilings will slowly lower and thicken through the overnight as
a warm front lifts into Ohio on Thursday. MVFR ceilings may
arrive across NW Ohio by mid morning on Thursday with a areas of
light rain beginning shortly after. It will take longer for this
to occur across the eastern half of northern Ohio into NW PA.
Some IFR will be possible with heavier showers in the afternoon.

winds will become east at all locations and increase through the
night. Winds will become gusty at times after 3 am and continue
into the afternoon. Gusts do not appear that they will exceed
the 20 to 25 knot range.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing into Friday. Non-VFR possible
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on the lake will be increasing from the east northeast and it
appears waves will be high enough for the western basin to support
small craft advisory criteria.  So, will hoist a small advisory for
the western 2 lake nearshore zones from 2 AM tonight through 5 PM on
Thursday.  For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should be
just offshore to prevent waves from reaching 4 feet. So, will not
issue an advisory for this area.  Otherwise, winds are expected to
be fairly light through the rest of the forecast period except
Monday. Winds will increase out of the east-northeast Monday and
will likely need another small craft advisory then.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Lombardy



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