Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 242347
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
High pressure over the region will continue to support fair
weather over the region through Wednesday. Warm moist air will
stream into the area for the later half of the work week. This
will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be above normal in the 80s.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which
will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest
dew points only in the lower 50s...low temperatures should drop well
down into the 50s for most of the cwa.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass will see an slight increase in moisture which by early
afternoon could support some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold
Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. The southwest breeze
will not be strong enough to suppress the lake breeze so look for
an afternoon cool down in the northeast lakeshore corridor.
Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts into the area. The dynamics are weak and the
instability is modest, so could see more of scattered showers and
isolated thunder. For Thursday we are looking at the best dynamics
and instability for thunderstorms as an upper wave approaches.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period with
highs in the 80s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm and humid airmass will get established over the area during
the period. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will climb well into the
80s. Unfortunately will need to continue with precip chances the
entire weekend. The models begin in decent agreement showing an
upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. At the
surface...high pressure will be centered off the East Coast while
low pressure will be centered in the Plains. This ridge will slide
off to the east on Sunday and that is when the best chances for rain
will be. Monday will a little cooler and less humid so rain chances
will be more limited. Similar weather is expected for Tuesday.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure centered over West Virginia will drift to the
Carolinas. VFR conditions will continue. Patchy mid level clouds
will move in from the west on Wednesday and some cumulus is likely
across northwest Ohio by Wednesday afternoon. A shower or
thunderstorm is not out of the question for northwest Ohio
Wednesday afternoon or evening but not enough of a probability to
mention in the TAF forecast.
Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again over the weekend as a warm and humid airmass
settles over the region. Expect onshore flow to develop in the
nearshore waters each afternoon.