Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220435
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1235 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW ARE CAUSING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SHOWERS ARE MORE
NUMEROUS OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.
LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS SUCH AS TOL/FDY/MNN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH 60.

PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BECOMES BLOCKED AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING CLOUD TREND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH 40...IF NOT UPPER UPPER 30S IF SKIES CLEAR WELL. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT THE CLOUD COVER DOES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOW TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH A DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY. SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIDELY SCT
LAKE EFFECT SHRA AFFECTING JUST THE SNOWBELT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
FEW OF THESE SHRA POSSIBLY HANGING AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO EARLY
MON AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD TRY AND DOMINATE ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST PART OF THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND
PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST MON SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CIGS
FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY MON THRU MON EVE.

NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND THIS LOOKS
GOOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SMALL
CRAFT TO END ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE LONGER FETCH EVEN WITH
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES UP ENOUGH TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOTERS GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGER WAVES THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
THE RIP RISK.

VARIABLES AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CALM LAKE WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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