Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261710
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
110 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the great lakes today through
saturday. A dissipating cold front will push east into lake erie
sunday before high pressure builds back over lake erie for much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes have been made to sky cover and temperatures to
reflect current trends.

Cold front continues to make slow progress to the southeast. Winds
at most locations have shifted to the northwest. The airmass will
continue to slowly dry in its wake with less humid conditions
expected for the afternoon.

previous discussion...
Another system has come and gone with a good part of the cwa seeing
no useful rainfall thus allowing the summer drought to continue.
High pressure at the surface and aloft builds over the area today.
Any isolated shra/tsra and patchy fog should end by mid morning with
dry conditions then prevailing. Temps will be a little cooler with
highs mostly in a 82 to 87 range. Dewpoints settle back down into
the low to mid 60s which will make the day seem more comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the area`s wx thru Monday so most places
will see the drought worsen. There is a dissipating cold front that
drops se into the area on Sun with a narrow band of moisture that
could trigger some shra/tsra. However...with high pressure aloft
don`t see more than just sct coverage of rain so will keep pops in
the chc category. Surface high pressure builds back over the area by
late Mon as the front dissipates so the threat for precip should be
done by Mon night.

Temps will run 5 to 8 degrees above normal Sat and Sun cooling
slightly for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Tuesday with models similar showing an upper
ridge axis in the western Dakotas and a shallow long wave trough
deepening across the Great Lakes. At the surface a cold front will
be moving into the western lakes. This cold front will move into
the area on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will build in from
the north Wednesday night and Thursday. Models by Thursday however
are out of phase with the ECMWF not as progressive as the GFS with
the front. The ECMWF also shows a building upper high just to our
west while the GFS still has an upper trough in the region. For
this reason did not make any big changes to the long term forecast
with generally slight chance or less pops through the period.
Highs mid 80s Tuesday and lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Front
that went through area last night stalled south of Columbus. Mid
level clouds will move into NW OH overnight ahead of next cold
front.

OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday
morning IN -SHRA/-TSRA with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the lake today and Saturday will
reach Eastern Canada by Saturday night. The lake may be a bit
choppy early today given the recent passage of a cold front but
with the building high...winds will be dropping off during the
day. Winds will remain light on Saturday and even into Sunday as
another area of high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. This
high will rebuild across the lake Monday and Tuesday keeping winds
fairly light through the end of the period. No headlines expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



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