Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271632
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1232 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure over lake Erie will move east dragging a cold front
across the area by the afternoon. High Pressure will slide across
the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another low pressure system will cross
the Great Lakes over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The majority of rain is east of the area. Winds have veered
slightly northwest over Lake Erie behind the surface low and will
continue to do so. Lake enhanced/effect showers will be on the
increase during the afternoon across northeast OH and northwest
PA, especially across the snowbelt although nothing heavy
expected. Stratocumulus elsewhere with steady or slowly falling
temperatures as cold advection continues.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly cold airmass with descend over the area tonight. 850 mb
temps will be coldest over the east end of the area and perhaps
may dip to as low as neg 3. Fortunately forecast sounding show a
lowering inversion overnight. So although there should be
scattered showers downwind of the lake...hopefully rainfall rates
will not get out of hand as they sometimes do this time of year
given the warm lake temperatures. Drier air and the inversion
should win out by daybreak Friday and will end the mention of
showers at that time. High pressure will then build over the
region for Friday with riding lingering into Saturday. It now
looks like precip chances on Saturday will be limited to the NE
end of the area as the main baroclinic zone will remain over that
area. A pretty good push of warm air is expected further south and
west with highs potentially getting into the 70s. The front will
eventually sag south across the area Saturday night and Sunday and
all areas will see precip chances those periods. The best chances
will probably be Sunday morning most areas. High pressure will
begin to reestablish itself on Sunday night and will dry things
out at that time.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds east across the Great Lakes Region on
Monday, shifting to the east coast by Tuesday. Temperatures will be
seasonable on Monday with southwest winds ramping up on Tuesday as
another low pressure system tracks across the midwest and passes
north of the Great Lakes. Increasing warm advection will push
temperatures well above normal into the upper 60s and 70s again on
Tuesday. As the low continues northeast into Quebec, a weakening
cold front will sink south into the area. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall overhead and may eventually act as a focus for
showers later in the week.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure over north central Ohio will continue northeast up the
shoreline today with aviation conditions declining. A band of
showers ahead of the low will exit to the east through about 15Z.
Meanwhile IFR conditions with drizzle is occurring on the back
side of the low. Have trended all TAF sites down to IFR for at
least a couple hours this morning, with conditions improving to
MVFR most areas this afternoon. South to southwest winds ahead of
the low will shift to the west/northwest behind it with gusts to
around 20 knots.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR should hang on in the snowbelt area thru friday
morning then return again on the weekend.
Easterly winds of 15-20 knots on Lake Erie early this morning will
shift around to the west as low pressure moves across the lake
through early this afternoon. Westerly winds will increase to 20-25
knots for a few hour window behind the low then start to drop off
from west to east overnight. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through 4 AM tomorrow but may need to be extended a few hours on the
east end of the lake if waves have not dropped off enough by that
High pressure will build over the lake on Thursday night then shift
east on Friday with a window of better wind and wave conditions.
Another low pressure system will move out of the upper Midwest and
pull a warm front north across the lake on Friday night.
Southwesterly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots as a low level
jet moves over the lake from Friday night into Saturday morning. The
flow will shift to more westerly late Saturday and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed on the east end of the lake.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.