Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 012337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ORIGINAL...PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
TO THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SNEAKING UP FROM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...ONLY A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON
THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3- 4 DEGREES IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE BREAKS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE AREA VERY SLOWLY THIS EVENING. BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET RID OF THE LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. EVENTUALLY EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS


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