Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301712
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. EXPECTING THIS DIURNAL
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND GOING CLEAR ALL AREAS. ONCE
AGAIN...MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE
A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURN AGAIN. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN NEAR 850MB ON FRIDAY AND
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FROM YNG INTO PA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON DEWPOINTS THAN THE GFS BUT FEEL THE MOISTURE NEAR 850MB MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WE HAD IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

WHATEVER SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEEM
LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
GOING TO FORECAST AS HIGH A POP AS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED UNTIL WE
GET A BETTER FIX ON THE TIMING.

THE GFS SHOWS MORE AMPLITUDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FOLLOW
CONTINUITY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ALMOST LIKE A FALL PATTERN DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE WITH FREQUENT
FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING WEST FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE....AND WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLANDS TO CLEVELAND
LATE IN THE DAY SO MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN LATER TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON FRIDAY BUT WE COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS MAY
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB/KOSARIK


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