Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291633
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1233 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
INDIANA TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE MODIFIED THE FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THE
THE SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE WATCH CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. ALL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAIN BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION SHOULD SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS. QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT TO BRING MUCH ABOVE A HALF AN INCH BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IF CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY LOCATION THAT CAN APPROACH AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE LEVEL STRATIFORM RAIN HAS BEEN SPREADING INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOWER END
QPF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A TENTH TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH
BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND SEE IF
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION GETS GOING. FIRST THOUGHT FROM THE
MORNING SHORT RANGE MODELS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BE AS FAR
NORTH AS A MARION TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE LIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN OHIO IMPACTING THE MOISTURE FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UNFORTUNATELY THE RAIN DOES NOT END TODAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVES DROPS INTO THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AGAIN THIS WOULD NOT
BE A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO BY ITSELF...BUT GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST MONTH...ADDITIONAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST FROM
MANSFIELD TO YOUNGSTOWN...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENDLESS EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH LIVES ON. EXTENDED PERIODS
TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK A SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN SETTLE OVER NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
AT BAY FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.  THERE MAY BE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE
TUNNEL AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADED
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT NOT NECESSARILY A
DRIER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RAIN WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR THEY
WILL OCCUR ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. AS LOW PASSES BY OVER
THE LAKE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ013-020>023-031>033-
     038.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ017-027>030-
     036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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