Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. STILL...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING GREATER THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
EAST AS BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING CLOSER
TO COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE REMAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS JUST A BIT SLOWER MOVING MOISTURE
OUT IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY DRY BUT DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A
BIT AS WE GET INTO A WETTER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WHEREAS
WINDS WILL BE N TO NE ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR BR AT SE TAF SITES BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE
LAKE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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