Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020229
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST OHIO WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE.

WE HAD FOG IN THE "TONIGHT" FORECAST BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH THERE IS MUCH CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT FOG. NOT TO SAY THERE
CANNOT BE PATCHY FOG BUT IT SHOULD NOT GET DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IN
MOST AREAS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS PRETTY SMALL TONIGHT FOR
THE FOG TO THICKEN UP. THE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE TRYING TO
PICK UP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND WHILE THAT MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS I DOUBT THE FOG WILL GET DENSE. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT THE FOG TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR
OUT UNTIL 4 AM OR SO AND THE SUN WILL BE COMING UP AN OUR AND A
HALF LATER.

SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE OPAQUE AND SOME WILL BE
THIN. DECIDED THAT "PARTLY CLOUDY" WAS PROBABLY A REASONABLE
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SOME PATCHES OF
STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AROUND DAYBREAK. THE STRATUS WOULD
DEVELOP INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ON THURSDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE 50S. A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SPREADS SE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF COOL ON THU DUE TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW 70`S ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND MID 70`S
INLAND. THIS HIGH WILL BE MORE OR LESS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEFLECTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH ACROSS TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY THURSDAY MORNING...GIVING
NORTHERN OHIO A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. LATE FRI THE LOW STALLS OUT
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND BEGINS TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE WINDWARD SIDE LOW NEARER TO OHIO
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN THE FORM OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
TILL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  REALLY THINK MONDAY WILL BE DRY
SO HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.  THE WARM FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TILL MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TILL AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRY THE AREA OUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY INTERFERE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF BR/FOG OR STRATUS THAT CAN DEVELOP. IF TIMING IS
JUST RIGHT AND THESE HIGHER CLOUDS EXIT RIGHT BEFORE DAWN...MAY
VERY WELL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR. OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED THE MVFR
MENTION. THINK STRATUS WOULD BE PREDOMINATE FOR TOL/FDY AND BR/FOG
FOR CAK/YNG. OTHERS COULD GO EITHER WAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL BE PREDOMINATE FOR THURSDAY. ANY MORNING NON VFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME NORTH AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST.  SUSTAINED WINDS RIGHT
NOW ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE OPEN WATERS WITH BUOY WAVE REPORTS NO
MORE THAN TWO FEET.  WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
HAVE NO CONCERN ABOUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINTAINING
A NE TO E FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE.  SPEEDS TOMORROW ON THE WEST END COULD
AGAIN GET CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BUT AFTER THAT MAINLY LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND CREATING A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.  CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA



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