Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RESULTING IN COLD POOL OF AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS WILL CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SUN EXPECTED AND COLD POOL PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES KEEPING TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. THIS WILL SEND A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
FEATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR RAIN. LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT CONSISTENT FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST AND THEN
IT GOES DOWN HILL. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR THURSDAY THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT IN AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...EVER MODEL RUN HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ON CLEAR TREND IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK BUT COLDER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (SATURDAY NIGHT).

DRY AIR IS WORKING IN NOW AND THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING EVEN
THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME FLURRIES WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST DEALING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. THE THREAT OF
A CEILING OVER NW OH WILL END BY NOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND
ANY CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE EAST OF A TOLEDO TO FINDLAY
LINE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS A THOUSAND
FEET OR SO ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE WINDS WILL
BE BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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