Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300553
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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