Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 930 UPDATE.  CIRRUS SHIELD SEEMS
PRETTY DENSE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO BUMPED
UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NIGHT WILL START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A FEW
MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FROST. THE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE EAST WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING SO NOT EXPECTING ERIE/CRAWFORD TO BE OUR COLD SPOTS
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AN FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKE LAST NIGHT
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING
AT MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN TODAY WITH H850 WARMING A FEW DEGREES. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS...AND
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE. TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...MAINLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE LESS DENSE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
WITH DRIER AIR. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPS NEAR 70...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM AS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
THE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING ON FRIDAY BUT
STILL VFR. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE YNG AREA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OVER NW OH THE CLOUDS COULD THIN AROUND DAYBREAK SOME
INDICATED A LITTLE FOG AT FDY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND THIN AND BURN OFF QUICKLY NOT LIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND LATE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.  LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET







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