Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST
FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND ARE
LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PRIMED
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND DEW POINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US DRAWS GOMEX MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED
PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF BROKEN
CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING KCAK A
16-17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





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