Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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233
FXUS61 KCLE 271111
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
711 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag southward across the region as low
pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. The low
will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday allowing
high pressure to build across the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers have decreased in coverage as they entered NW Ohio.
This was expected but additional development should occur at
some point late morning into the afternoon. Otherwise only minor
changes have been made to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms over Indiana continue in an area
where the low level jet and decent low level moisture reside.
These showers/thunderstorms will likely struggle to maintain
themselves as they move eastward into a slightly drier airmass.
Short range models have trended further south with the
showers/thunderstorms for this afternoon and even overnight. So
with that said we have nudged the higher POP`s further south.
The best chances will generally be near and south of a line from
Findlay to Canton. The upper level trough will not cross the
region until Friday with the entire region likely seeing some
showers and scattered thunder.

Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal averages today. In
the wake of the cold front on Friday highs should remain in the
lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will continue to progress to some degree to the east
And southeast. The 00z gfs is aggressive in presenting a solution
With the low becoming cut off and deepening to nearly 1000 mb over
The delmarva region. Inherently this would also have an impact on
The low level flow with a tightening pressure gradient. The other
Models are a bit less ambitious and faster.

Surface low pressure will move from the Carolinas slowly southeast
away from the area over the weekend. This storm system in
combination with high pressure building southeast into the Great
Lakes will setup a northeast flow across the region. A bit of
cold air advection will take place as well keeping temperatures
relatively cool and below normal for a couple days. In addition,
clouds and precipitation chances will occur over the
southeastern portions of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday in association with the low pressure system. Then, as
high pressure builds in we start to see some warming at 850 MB
across the area along with some subsidence under the weak upper
level ridge resulting in a slight warming of temperatures toward
the end of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The atmosphere will begin to dry out across the forecast area as the
low pressure pulls well away from the region and high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes region. Weak upper level ridging
will dominate into the first half of the week along with a
gradual warming trend with 850 mb warm air advection. We should
see temperatures begin to climb dramatically through mid week as
subsidence and warm air advection continue under the ridge. No
precipitation is expected during the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A few VFR showers may clip KFDY through 15z. Otherwise it
appears most TAF sites will remain dry through the morning.
After this time ceilings will lower with areas of MVFR
developing near showers and thunderstorms. The best chances of
showers and thunderstorms will mainly be near and south of a
line from KFDY to Millersburg. Elsewhere the coverage is much
tougher to call and have leaned toward leaving the mention out
of the TAF`s for now.

Winds will be light from the south and southwest through the
morning. By afternoon winds will vary across the region since
low pressure should be moving across central/southern Ohio. NW
Ohio will see winds shift around to an easterly direction while
southeastern TAF sites(KCAK, KYNG) remain light southwesterly.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Thursday night into Friday
morning could persist into Saturday. A few showers/thunderstorms
are possible Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds will occur through the day today but will
begin to increase later tonight into Friday as northeast flow
develops. Low pressure will move east across the Ohio valley
and in combination with high pressure building east into the
central Great Lakes will cause the increase in winds. Small
craft advisory conditions will develop later tonight into Friday
and will likely continue into Saturday. As high pressure builds
slowly east, winds should gradually diminish into early next
week ending the threat for small craft conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy/Pfahler
LONG TERM...Lombardy/Pfahler
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Lombardy/Pfahler



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