Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 261944
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday
will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have been seeing a lot more cumulus than yesterday as dewpoints
have climbed into the 60s. Not seeing any pop up storm though as
there is no good lifting source at the surface. The convection
moving into SW OH has been weakening on the northern end of the
line and is not expected to impact the area. Will continue with a
small mention of precip later this evening into the overnight
hours to account for a very weak impulse aloft. Overnight lows
should be close to current dewpoints
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue during the period. Rain chances
will be hit and miss during the period as there is a lack
organized forcing at the surface. It appears best chance for
storms will be on Saturday as the low over the Central Plains
lifts northeast toward the northern Lakes. At the same time a wave
will scoot up the west side of the upper ridge. It appears a weak warm
frontal boundary will try to lift across the local area at the
same time. The factors combined could provide enough forcing for
some organized convection. Given the areas location under the
upper ridge there will be little if any shear. So, the threat for
severe weather is minimal. The models are similar with this
scenario but all have slight timing differences. Will continue
with chance pops most of the period.
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s every day with
Saturday likely the warmest of the days.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Memorial Day
with humidity dropping off a bit. The frontal boundary should be
south and east of the area early in the day so removed chances for
precipitation from most areas, with just a slight chance continuing
in the southeast. Daytime highs should only drop off a couple
degrees but lows will trend back into the upper 50s to near 60 with
high pressure overhead on Monday and Tuesday nights. Conditions
should remain dry through mid-week but we will need to start
watching for moisture return ahead of the next trough approaching
from the Plains during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Large complex of thunderstorms over southern Indiana will continue
to move to the east southeast. Activity has been dissipating
along the northern portion of the line but expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop after 21z as remnant moisture
moves into NW Ohio. Included a couple hour tempo for thunderstorms
at TOL/FDY then VCSH at most eastern sites continuing into the
evening. Confidence remains fairly low in timing scattered
showers/thunderstorms into any of the terminals. Conditions will
remain VFR unless in a thunderstorm. Given the high dewpoints, did
include some reduced visibilities at most of the terminals
towards 09-10Z. Any sites that receive rain during the afternoon
will be more prone to reduced visibilities tonight. South to
Southwesterly winds will gust to 15-20 knots at times through
22z...then drop below 10 knots tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.
Generally good marine conditions expected through the Holiday
weekend with winds averaging 10 knots or less. Lake Erie is located
between high pressure over the southeastern states and broad low
pressure across the plains and upper midwest. Generally light wind
pattern will allow lake breezes to develop each afternoon on the
east half of the lake through Saturday. Low pressure will track out
of the plains across the central great lakes from Saturday night
through Sunday night with a weak cold front moving south across lake
Erie early Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage over the weekend.