Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190439
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND RAISED THE
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS UP.
NW OH WILL START TO GET CLEARING SOON AND THEIR TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP AND GET INTO THE 30S.

PREVIOUS...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE LOOP
DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTH. NO MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO. IF ONE
BELIEVES THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE DEW POINTS WILL
TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO DROP. WE HAVE SNOW MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST FOR INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MY HUNCH IS THAT BY
THE TIME THE WET BULB DROPS BELOW FREEZING THE PRECIP WILL BE TOO
LIGHT AND SPOTTY TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HILLS OF
INLAND NW PA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT.

ELSEWHERE...ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DEVELOP AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO KEEP THE
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE
CLEARING DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST LOW TEMPS
ARE ABOUT THE SAME THOUGH AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...LOWS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40 AT THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS ACROSS NW OHIO WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE WARNINGS ANY LONGER BUT OF COURSE THERE WILL BE FROST
AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OHIO AS THE CLEARING
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER NW PA SHOULD END QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS RIDGING OCCURS AT 850 MB AND DRYING OCCURS AT ALL
LEVELS. EXPECTING SOME CU TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS NOW PROJECTED TO CROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE LOW
THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. BUT...STILL THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES IN THE WEST BEFORE
12Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BEHIND IT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PULLS
AWAY QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS REALLY DRIES OUT ABOVE 850MB. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND REMOVED THE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE
SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO TRENDED CLOUD COVER
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDS. TWEAKED LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF EASTERN LAKE ERIE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BEGIN THINNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 08Z WITH CLEARING LIKELY WELL BEFORE DAWN NW. FURTHER
EAST HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INITIALLY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
LAKESHORE...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BACKS. THAT SAID...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
MORE BREAKS AS WELL. WILL HOLD ONTO CIGS AT KCLE THROUGH 10Z AND
THEN IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z. WILL KEEP CIGS IN KCAK THROUGH
18Z AND KYNG THROUGH 20Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY IN IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DROPPING INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH WHERE WINDS AND WAVES HAVE
COME DOWN ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING BUT THOUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN CHOPPY ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT GOING...LIKELY THROUGH 10 PM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
ENDING TIME ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF AVON TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM SUNDAY WITH WAVES FORECAST TO DROP OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THEN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144-145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC





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