Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX SITUATION FOR TODAY WITH A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES THAT
WILL BECOME MUCH CLEARER BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DIG OUT A TROUGH FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AND A JUICY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPC HAS AREA UNDER A
HIGH END SLIGHT RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY MAY BE REALIZED FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS
THAT SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX APPROACHES BY MIDDAY.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH/NW PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NUMEROUS
MESO-BOUNDARIES LIKELY AVAILABLE...CONVECTION TO INITIATE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
ORGANIZE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS HIT THE SAME SPOT TODAY.
BY 6 PM EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO BE THROUGH NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 8PM AND 10PM. SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
PICKS UP TONIGHT FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA. LOW TRACKS IN THE VICINITY
OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THEN INTO NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH IS USHERED IN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...HAVE THE POTENTIAL SET UP FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS
ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE TO BECOME INVOLVED. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME MINOR RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL TAKE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO 70 MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND FOR THE EASTERN HALF
WEDNESDAY TOO. NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE UPPER 40S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A DIURNAL VARIABILITY TO THE SHOWERS
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 60S MAY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AT
THE TAF FORECAST SITES DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW OF NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
MAY BECOME VARIABLE AS THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS OF 50 KNOTS. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN





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