Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191959
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
259 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Texas will move northeast across
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley Monday before moving off the mid
Atlantic Coast Monday night. Tuesday, low pressure moving
through Ontario will drive a cold front through the region
during the afternoon and evening. Wednesday, high pressure will
dominate the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers have expanded over the past couple
hours as the colder air continues to deepen across the area.
Forecast soundings on BUFKIT show that for the next 6 to 8 hours
the depth of the cold air remains fairly constant with cape and
moisture up to 700mb. Lift and instability is within the favored
dendritic growth zone and lake induced cape reaches 5-700j/kg.
Moisture remains sufficient and shear is minimal. So expect snow
showers to continue/increase this afternoon into evening. After
about 9 to 10pm though, the inversion begins to lower, winds
begin to slowly back, and dendritic snow growth diminishes.
Instability however remains "moderate" so LES will not shut
down immediately. Could still see snow showers Monday morning
as warm advection/isentropic lift moves through the area.
Otherwise expect plenty of sunshine outside of nwrn PA although
during the afternoon expecting decreasing clouds there as well
as drier air and high pressure build in from the south. Models
continue to show dry air across the region Monday night as high
pressure moves off the mid Atlantic Coast.







&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the SERN states slides east allowing the next
system to move in from the NW.  Models continue to move low pressure
system across James Bay late Tuesday forcing the next cold front
across the forecast area.  Model timing coming into better agreement
with the front moving into NW OH late afternoon on Tuesday.  The
front moves across the forecast area ushering in colder conditions
and a little snow.  By daybreak Wednesday the 850 MB temps plunge to
-13c. With a W-NW flow best chance for snow will be int the
 snowbelt east of Cleveland. Do not expect much in the way of
 accumulations as ridge builds in quickly on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the second day in a row have not made many changes to long term.
Friday is still looking dry with precip chances then increasing for
the weekend.  Low pressure will pass to the north of lakes Friday
night and drag a cold front across the region.  Some light precip
could occur along the front with best chances over the eastern end
of the area.  There could be some lake effect behind this system as
both the GFS and ECMWF take 850 mb temps to neg 10 or colder by
early Sunday.  On Saturday some rain showers could occur downwind of
the lake but by early Sunday we could be looking at lake effect
snow.  For now will stick with chance pops for most of the weekend
with best chances obviously downwind of the lake.  Have used a blend
of guidance for temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Will begin with MVFR east and VFR west. High pressure will build
in from the west along with drier air this afternoon and
overnight. Lake effect however will dominate northeast OH and
nwrn PA this afternoon into this evening. Will continue with
MVFR conditions there while improving elsewhere through the
period. Monday mainly VFR except for nwrn PA at least early.


OUTLOOK...A brief period of Non-VFR possible Tuesday night all
areas and through Wednesday night in the northeast snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds to 30 knots will diminish to 20 to 25 tonight. Winds
will back to the SW Monday and to the S Monday night ahead of next
approaching system, but small craft advisory will continue as winds
remain at 15 to 25 knots.   Winds turn to the W to NW Tuesday night
as another cold front moves across Lake Erie.   Winds gradually
diminish Wednesday as high pressure gradually builds over the
Lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB


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