Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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658
FXUS61 KCLE 261918
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the
upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning. A second
system will track across the Central Lakes late Sunday dragging
another cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Weak ridge just into Wrn Ohio will slide quickly east this evening
ahead next system. Low pressure now into Missouri will track NE
across the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
Track of the low still in doubt. The Nam tracks the low just
North of the Ohio River...while the GFS is across Central Ohio
and the ECMWF is in between. Either way showers with a chance of
TSRA spread East across the forecast area ahead of the low
tonight. Precip currently into Central Il. Leaned toward the
ECMWF for the track and timing of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
May be some lingering showers in the East tomorrow morning...but the
precip should track quickly east with the Low.   The remainder of
the day and into the evening should be dry.   But the respite from
the rain will be short lived.   Next round of showers and TSRA
expected to move into NW OH late Saturday night into Sunday morning
ahead of the next system.  By Sunday evening low pressure tracks
into central lakes with the trailing cold front moving across WRN
OH.  Expect convection to fire up ahead of the cold front Sunday
evening.   SPC has the SWRN portion of the forecast area in a
marginal risk as dew point creep into the lower 60s and cape push to
near 1500 j/kg.   This combined with an upper level short wave that
will move across the forecast area.   The low tracks NE of the
forecast area Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough will persist over the central Great Lakes Tuesday
through Thursday with lots of uncertainty when pieces of energy
moving through the flow will impact the region. There is a mention
of rain in most days of the long term in the grids. it seems that
the better chances will be across the eastern half of the region.
Cloud cover and any showers will help to keep the region cooler.
Most locations will be slightly below seasonal averages.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
MVFR ceilings will persist near and east of the Central
Highlands for much of the afternoon. Afternoon mixing will
gradually lift ceilings but it will likely take until close to
sunset before ceilings reach low end VFR. Uncertainty is how
fast they return to MVFR ceilings tonight as an area of low
pressure moves toward the region. Expect to see showers and
thunderstorms expand in coverage from west to east through the
overnight hours. Still uncertainty about the coverage of the
thunder so only went with vicinity mention at this time.

MVFR, maybe brief IFR, conditions will slowly lift through
Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain 10 knots or less into Sunday as a couple pieces of
low pressure move near Lake Erie. The low tonight will remain south
of the lake but the stronger storm system on Sunday will move across
Michigan into Ontario. We then have an upper level trough that will
linger over the central Great Lakes for an extended period of time.
Winds will become westerly in the wake of a cold front Sunday
evening and remain that way into at least Tuesday. The longer fetch
with 15 to 20 knot winds will likely build waves enough for the
eastern third of the lake to produce small craft conditions Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Oudeman



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