Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A NEW
IMPULSE WILL BRING IN NEW CONVECTION TOWARD MORNING...ITS EXACT
POSITION STILL UP IN THE AIR. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS FOR OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 4 AM. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST RAIN AND WILL HAVE A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MID 60S FOR LOWS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR RIGHT NOW WHICH AREA WILL
NEED IT. IT SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF A TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD TO
YOUNGSTOWN LINE. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING A DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ANY POP UP
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW REALLY
DIFFICULT TO PICK UP ON ANYTHING CONCRETE SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOWER OTHERWISE. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY CENTRAL
AND WEST. NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME AREAS OF FOG AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP
VISIBILITIES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THIS AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE A AREA TO WATCH
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SO WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AT THIS POINT.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM KCLE EASTWARD
ACROSS KCAK INTO THE KYNG AREA. TRIED TO TIME THIS INTO THESE
SITES. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
THURSDAY AND ONTO THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT.  WAVES AS A RESULT SHOULD CONTINUE AT 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK






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