Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211933
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO
CANADA HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. UPSTREAM A SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH WAS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL CROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL ALOFT
GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA THIS
EVENING. WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE IS MOST EXPANSIVE NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LAKE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE FOR
OUR AREA...SPECIFICALLY THE SNOWBELT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW 5C. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING EITHER.
TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ANY THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING GOING
INTO THIS EVENING AND RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NE OH/NW PA. LINGER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.
LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS SUCH AS TOL/FDY/MNN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH 60.

PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BECOMES BLOCKED AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING CLOUD TREND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH 40...IF NOT UPPER UPPER 30S IF SKIES CLEAR WELL. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT THE CLOUD COVER DOES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOW TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH A DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INITIAL WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AS OF
1730Z. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE THREAT OF THUNDER AWAY FROM THE REGION
FOR NOW. WE WILL THEN AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES A STRONGER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. AS THIS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES
WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS WITH UNDER
2000 FEET LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL COVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE ON MONDAY. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
AND LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND THIS LOOKS
GOOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SMALL
CRAFT TO END ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE LONGER FETCH EVEN WITH
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES UP ENOUGH TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOTERS GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGER WAVES THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
THE RIP RISK.

VARIABLES AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CALM LAKE WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN




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