Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 272337
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the
holiday weekend. Hot and humid conditions will support a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Sunday. A
upper low will pass by the region Sunday Night with drier
conditions early next week. Temperatures will cool off a few
degrees with a drop in the humidity.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus field is already starting to decrease in coverage this
evening. Since there has not been a good low level focus for
thunderstorms to develop on it has remained dry. Not even the lake
breeze convergence has been enough to generate anything under the
upper level ridging that is in place across the region. So at
this point plan on keeping the dry forecast for tonight. Fewer
clouds than last night and light winds should allow temperatures
to dip a degree or 2 cooler than last night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will once again start off in the mid to upper 60s
on Saturday. With no notable change in the thermal profiles we can
expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Models indicate a
moistening of the mid and lower levels sufficient to support
scattered convection. Diurnal heating will quickly destabilize the
environment and trigger pulse thunderstorms. The wind profiles do
not show enough shear for organized convection so not anticipating
severe storms. The scattered nature of the thunderstorms will mean
a number of areas will receive little to no rain, while areas that
are impacted could see moderate to briefly heavy rain.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early in this period the models are in good agreement with weak
ridging aloft over region with fair weather expected. Forecast
confidence decreases toward the end of the week as the gfs builds a
blocking ridge along the east coast and develops a slowly digging
trough over the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile the ECMWF has a
different solution with a more progressive active northern jet
stream along the northern tier of states that moves a cold front
across the region towards the end of the week. will use the blended
guidance with minor adjusts.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Saturday will have somewhat better chances at getting a
shower/thunderstorm to pop up...but still chances are too low yet
to mention in the TAFs. Some early morning BR possible for
CAK/YNG. Otherwise VFR conditions. Lake breeze to reverse this
evening...with all terminals having a light southerly flow. Lake
breeze expected again Saturday for ERI, but possibly not at CLE.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered Non-VFR possible in mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Brief
MVFR possible in early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday from
MFD to CAK and YNG.
Tranquil conditions will prevail on lake erie as the region
remains on the western edge of high pressure centered off the mid
Atlantic coast. Weak southerly winds less than 10 knots can be
expect though the weekend except during the saturday afternoon
when a weak lake breeze may develop. A weak cold front will
approach and cross the lake sunday night and monday with veering
winds to westerly monday with generally 5-15 knots speeds. Weak
high pressure will build over the lake tuesday and east of the
lake wednesday. Winds will continue to veer to north and then
easterly on wednesday. No small craft advisories are expected.