Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
IOWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS FAIRLY SOLID ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS ACROSS SWRN OHIO AND SRN INDIANA STARTING TO LOOK MORE
CONVECTIVE VS STRATUS AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE MIXED AROUND
THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. THROUGH THE EVENING
BELIEVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW MOISTURE PULLING EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW. ALSO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
ON BALANCE HOWEVER...DO NOT BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR AS RAPIDLY AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SO HAVE BOOSTED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES VS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 12Z SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY ROUGHLY EAST OF A CLE-MFD LINE. WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING WEST OF THAT LINE. AS FOR PRECIP...THE
MODELS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NERN OHIO AND NWRN
PA AT 00Z MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A
RESULT OUR NORTHWEST FETCH WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER WHICH WOULD BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FINE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA HOWEVER WITH LIGHT NORTH FLOW OFF THE LAKE UNDER A EXITING
UPPER TROUGH NOT STILL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AT LEAST ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA TO START. TO THE WEST ENOUGH DRYING AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD GET IN TO BREAK THE CEILINGS SO WILL BEING THERE
WITH "PARTLY CLOUDY". THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOWEVER THE CU RULE
SUGGESTS SUNSHINE WOULD CREATE A THICK FIELD OF CU SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO PARTLY SUNNY AT
BEST FOR SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE. FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR
MIXES IN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS PA. WILL HAVE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW REACHING TO IOWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE INCREASING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
LI`S (GFS) AROUND -4 AND CAPES (NAM)1500-2000J/KG. WILL STILL GO
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY BUT SEEMS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. SYSTEM APPEARS
TO WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A
SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING. TEMPS REBOUNDING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
A LOW 20-40 POP SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE AROUND.
HARD TO PIN DOWN FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR TIMING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE START TO DRY OUT WITH MID-LEVELS
WARMING ALOFT...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S TO START THE WEEK...WARMING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HAS BROUGHT OVERCAST MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE GENERATED SOME LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS
THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE CLE...ERI...CAK...AND YNG TERMINALS. THE
TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE TAFS SITES. FORECAST MODELS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LAKE-EFFECT GENERATED CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIXED BAG
CEILING-WISE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES AND SOME
LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 00Z THAT COULD IMPACT THE
CLE AND ERI TERMINALS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHAT RAIN COULD DIRECTLY
FALL AT THE TERMINALS SO JUST HAVE VCSH MENTION FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT IS TOUGH CALL ON THE EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AS
CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED
AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH SATURATION IN THE MID 50S AND CAN CERTAINLY GIVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG TO FORM...SO GAVE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL INLAND SITES AND TOL. FOG COULD BE MORE LIKELY IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE TOO PERSISTENT AT CLE AND ERI FOR ANY REDUCED VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT ON
THURSDAY WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KEC



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