Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 231758
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front
will move southeast across the region monday then high pressure
rebuilds over ohio for tuesday into thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current forecast is on track so only slight changes were made to
cloud cover. Temperatures have already warmed to 85-90 degree
mark with further warming expected except perhaps near the lake
east of Mentor where an onshore breeze is hold back the
only slight changes made for the morning update as the current
forecast is on track with hot and humid conditions expected to
continue. 12Z soundings this morning show 850 mb temperatures
from 19-20c which will support the current forecast max
temperature range from 88 to 94. with the ground being rather dry
more of the solar heating will go into warming the air instead of
evaporation and allow for a super adiabatic boundary layer and
hotter afternoon. the only moderating affect may be a light
northerly component to the the wind off of Lake Erie from Cle east
to ERI which may keep the immediate lakeshore cooler.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The heat and humidity will continue thru sun then some moderating of
temps back closer to normal will occur starting mon. Highs by mon
should just be in the 80s.
The short term drought affecting most of the cwa will get a little
worse as most of the area will not see significant rainfall from the
next front affecting the area late sun into mon. Luckily, the
pattern does show some change toward the latter part of next week
that should bring a better chance for rain.
There appears enough instability and shear for some strong storms
with the system late sun into mon morning with an isolated
severe storm also possible but mainly for the nw part of the cwa.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast begins on Tuesday on the back side of an
upper level trough. Strong AVA behind this trough will create
zonal flow aloft through Thursday and support high pressure at the
surface over the Great Lakes. Like much of this summer,
temperatures will be on the rise with this stable air mass and
above average temperatures should be expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Given long term models` trend in forecast towards
climatology, forecast only reflects mid to upper 80s at this time,
but if models continue to keep high pressure in place can see 90s
being adding in the near future.
For Thursday and beyond, the long term models differ just a bit.
Both models show high pressure moving out as a low moves to the
south of the CWA. The GFS has a weaker but faster low that reaches
southern Ohio early Thursday morning with another disturbance moving
through the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has a stronger but slower low
pressure system reach SW Ohio Friday afternoon but has a more
defined warm front ahead of it that can bring precipitation on
Thursday. Then the models keep the area somewhat active and wet
through Saturday. Cannot say that I am all that confident in either
solution as this summer has been very dry with many areas attaining
moderate drought status. But with the long term model solutions have
a slight chance to chance pop mention for early Thursday morning
through the rest of the long term but not too excited about needed
rainfall yet. Temperatures for this second half of the long term
will be around climatology in the low 80s, could be a touch cooler
if the period is really wet and active.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure sliding by to the north. A very weak front was
dropping south of KMFD and KCAK. A thunderstorm not out of the
question this evening but it should be south of the TAF sites.
Cumulus will dissipate this evening. MVFR fog/haze will develop
toward daybreak Sunday although lower dew points will keep the
fog to a minimum across much of extreme northeast OH and
northwest PA. High and mid clouds will spread across the Great
Lakes later tonight and Sunday morning with a cold front reaching
the western Great Lakes.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday into Monday with showers
A weak and shallow cold front located across central lower Michigan
into lower Ontario will make its way across Lake Erie this morning.
Winds will shift from the SW/WSW to NW/WNW for Saturday. Winds
should be fairly light with 10 knots or less expected. For Sunday,
high pressure builds in and winds will be southerly and 10 knots or
less but will increase late and shift to more westerly ahead of
another but much stronger cold front. There could be a chance for a
small craft advisory behind this cold front as waves will be on the
increase with the stronger westerly winds but still looks like 2 to
4 feet will be the maximum as of now. High pressure then moves in
late Monday and winds will be light and variable 10 knots or less
with waves 2 feet or less.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-