Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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137
FXUS61 KCLE 280505
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
105 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will ridge northward across Ohio overnight
then move east of the area on Wednesday. Low pressure will
track across the Northern Lakes Thursday dragging another front
across the area. The front will then stall and linger over the
local area into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A couple sprinkles trying to make it across the lake toward
Erie. These look like they will fall apart before they reach
shore. Otherwise the only changes made were to hourly
temperature and cloud cover grids to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
The existing cumulus field will dissipate during the evening
leaving skies mainly clear overnight. Tomorrow will also be a
quiet day with temperatures finally starting to warm back up.
Have stayed to the cool side of guidance for highs especially in
the south where it remains fairly wet. Have made some changes
for the Wednesday night period. The models continue to show
precip remaining north of the area through daybreak Thursday.
This scenario has been consistent from day to day and not sure
why it keeps sneaking back into the forecast. Have gone ahead
and trimmed back chances and only the very northern end of the
area will see chances prior to 12z Thursday. Have used a blend
of guidance temps for Wednesday and Wednesday night. If clouds
are slow to arrive Wednesday night then temps in the southeast
may need to be lowered some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak front will be over the northern third of the area Thursday.
This may cause a few showers or storms to form Thursday morning near
Lake Erie into northwest Ohio. However, the better chance for
thunderstorms will come Thursday afternoon as the combination of
lift from the front, increasing instability from daytime heating,
and an approaching shortwave trigger thunderstorm development.

Severe storms will be possible on Thursday as instability on the
order of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40
knots form a favorable environment. Damaging winds look to be the
primary threat followed by hail and perhaps an isolated tornado
along the frontal boundary. The amount of morning convection/cloud
cover will determine how substantial the severe threat will be. The
more cloud cover/precipitation early in the period, the lesser the
threat for severe storms. Irregardless of the severe threat, storm
motion will be out of the west southwest, which will be nearly
parallel with the boundary. This could lead to some flooding with
training thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty this far out, so stay
tuned for more details.

A chance for storms will continue Thursday night into Friday as a
large trough begins to move in from the west. A cold front will
swing through from the west late Friday into Friday night. Depending
on the exact timing of the cold front and the amount of
precipitation along it, a threat for severe storms could be a
possibility once again during Friday afternoon/evening. The cold
front will be east of the area come Saturday morning with at least a
brief window of drier weather behind it. However, by Saturday
afternoon we may see storms develop once again with daytime heating
and cooler temperatures aloft leading to sufficient instability.
Seasonable temperatures are expected through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period will be characterized with near normal temperatures
with an upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes Sunday, but
the upper pattern remaining fairly zonal over the local area through
the period. Lingering showers are possible Sunday, mainly east, with
the departing Great Lakes trough. After mainly dry conditions Sunday
night, periods of shower/thunderstorm chances return Monday through
Tuesday as a few disturbances move through the upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley. Some clouds over lake
Erie due to weak surface trough will move east of area this
morning. After that cirrus shield from storms to the west will
overspread the area.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will turn southerly Wednesday and remain rather weak.
Winds could increase to around 15 knots in the afternoon across
the Western Basin. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday night
at 15 to 20 knots. While a Small Craft Advisory is possible,
the southerly nature of the winds suggest one is not expected at
this time. Southwest winds may increase a touch more Thursday,
so a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Southwest winds of 10
to 15 knots will then continue through Saturday.

Expect decent chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Mottice



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