Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301914
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WE BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. OTHERWISE...AS COOL AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE EAST A BIT WARMER
IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH ON THE LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL HANG AROUND IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER THREAT ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT BEST. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL. THREAT FOR MORE
ACTIVITY ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AS REINFORCING MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NO STRONG WARM OR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND
LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY. SEE NO REASON TO START FLIP FLOPPING THE FORECAST WITH SO
MUCH DOUBT. SO WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE EAST WITH
WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET.  SMALL CRAFT
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AGAIN AS A TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE LAKES.  IN FACT PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE ALMOST LIKE A FALL PATTERN ON LAKE ERIE WITH...LARGE LOW OVER
JAMES BAY AND A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
THE LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB


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