Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST SATELLITE DOES SHOW LOW VFR
CIGS FILLING IN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AM CONCERNED THAT WE GET BKN CIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS DIURNAL AND IF IT DOES
GET IN...BELIEVE NWRN OHIO DOES CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
EAST FROM KCLE UP THE LAKESHORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
IN CIGS AND FOG ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TOWARD THE
MVFR RANGE. KCLE CURRENTLY LIFR AND AFTERNOON IS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON HOW MOISTURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE BUT AM THINKING THAT THE
CLEARING DOES SNEAK INTO KCLE AFTER 20Z SO HEDGED TAF TO VFR TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AND MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE. FOR
ALL OF NERN OHIO AND KERI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK/CONTINUE
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ACROSS NRN LWR MI WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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