Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300445
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLDER AIR FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING A
GOOD 6 TO 8 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AT 850 MB. THIS
WILL HELP THE SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES. HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ALREADY AND COULD SEE A FEW MORE BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW WEST OF I-71 TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY CLEARING BUT TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE TEENS ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT
WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. WILL USE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT PIVOTS BACK
INTO CANADA. SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 850 TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20C...FILTERS IN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY EXIT OUT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS TO MAINTAIN
THEIR CURRENT SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT THE TIME
OF THIS ISSUANCE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT WINDS FROM
SW TO WNW FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. THE COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLUSTERY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AND
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT. FOR SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH
ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
     023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON






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