Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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565
FXUS61 KCLE 251141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Ohio and Indiana border will shift to the
New England coast tonight. Weak high pressure will build over
the area Friday and Friday night then shift east over the
weekend. This will allow and area of low pressure to move
northeast into the area by Sunday. This system will then linger
over the region into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most of the area remains dry early today but that should
change. Low pressure remains along the Ohio and Indiana border.
Unlike yesterday when the models all took this low north of Lake
Erie...they are now taking it south of the area and shifting it
to the East Coast tonight. This means instead of being on the
warm side of the system most of today...we will actually end up
being on the cool side. So have had to lower high temps today
with most locations struggling to get out of the lower 60s. This
also means the area of showers over Indiana will slide across
the area as the low pulls east. Not expecting an all day rain
but most locations should see several hours of rain at some
point. Looking at forecast soundings and the track of the low
see no need for thunder today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models continue to change from run to run so confidence in
the timing and coverage of any precip during the period is low.
Unlike a couple days ago...it now looks like we may be able to
squeeze out some dry periods the next few days. Expect the
showers to end from west to east overnight as the surface low
shifts to the East Coast. On Friday ridging will occur from the
south which will even end the precip threat in NW PA. Lot`s of
differences after that with some of the guidance taking a
weak disturbance across the area Friday night into Saturday.
Think this may be a tad overdone and have lowered precip
chances both periods. Best chances for a few hundredths of rain
will be at the southern end of the area. Expect most locations
to be dry on Saturday. Up next will be an area of low pressure
heading out of the Plains and likely affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Todays model runs are much weaker with this
system. The previous forecast package already had likely or
better chances those periods and that seems reasonable for now.
Not expecting Sunday to be a complete wash out but there will
likely be a couple periods of rain. Will try to dry things out
from west to east on Sunday night.

Friday will be a tad cool but seasonable readings are expected
both Saturday and Sunday. May have to bump temps up those days
if the models continue to weaken the next system which would
allow for more dry weather and sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday we will have yet another upper
low meandering eastward across the region, although this one appears
to stay north across the central Lakes and Ontario. Again the
weather will remain unsettled and still have showers mentioned.
There is reasonable agreement too on the broad upper pattern amongst
the models. Smaller features/short waves a ways off from being
resolved and will along with diurnal swings modulate the better
chances for precip. There may be a few opportunities for some
thunder, but will leave out that for now with lower confidence.
Memorial day temperatures will be seasonable in the 70s, but as the
cool upper low gets nearby and a cold front crosses Monday night,
temperatures fall back to 60s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A variety of conditions today primarily revolving around
ceilings. Slow moving system spiraling across Ohio, reaching
western NY by late this evening. Periods of showers will
accompany the low. Ceilings to start span the spectrum with a
few slots of VFR to areas of IFR across the western and southern
sides of the low across west-central Ohio. By midday expecting
ceiling improvement a most of the terminals with some vsby
restrictions in heavier showers. Winds will shift from the
east- northeast today to the west-northwest this evening with
the track of the low across northern OH. As we get on the
backside of this low expect more widespread IFR ceilings to
overspread the area for tonight into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lingering across northeast OH/nw PA into
Friday morning. Areas of non-VFR possible at times over the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Pre-dawn low pressure was located across west central OH. It will
likely track close to the lake shore today. Winds will remain east-
northeast across the lake for a good part of today until the low
shifts across eastern OH. Winds will be strongest first thing this
morning and then pick up again toward Friday morning. Likely not
enough to generate small craft advisory conditions. High pressure
will be over the lake Friday bringing winds around to the south and
southeast by Saturday morning. The pattern will remain active. The
next low is expected to track across northern OH on Sunday. An
approach of a trough for Monday night will bring southwest winds
across the lake Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik/Oudeman



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