Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220540
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east and drag a
cold front across the local area this evening. High pressure
will take control of the region on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current forecast remains on track. Just made a few minor
adjustments to PoPs to match what we are seeing on radar. A bit
of snow is mixing in on the back edge of the precipitation
shield, but no accumulating snow is expected as the main band
moves across.

Previous discussion...
Cold front is now just west of the area and will move east
across the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. Expecting
light rain to move in from the west with and behind the front
with an eventual change to snow before ending outside of any
lake effect region. Not expecting much accum as most of the
precip should occur as rain or a mix. For the snow belt, BUFKIT
shows a fairly low inversion with this system and no good
sustained period of time when dendrites are favored so not
expecting much lake effect snow as well although given the cold
air over the lake would expect some post front enhancement. Will
have chance pops west and south and likely to categorical
across the snowbelt. Cold air moves in quickly as does the dry
air so am expecting most of the precip to be done by morning.
Will carry a chance pop in the morning and taper to a slight
chance for the afternoon. Will likely hold onto clouds much of
the day through however outside of the lake influence should be
more sun. Will continue dry and partly cloudy for Wednesday
night as high pressure weakens slightly over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The passage of an upper trough early Thursday will have enough
moisture with it to bring a decent amount of mid and high clouds
across the area. If it can generate precip it may brush the
lake and possibly northwest PA, but it looks unlikely. So,
Thanksgiving will largely be benign with southwest winds and
temperatures reaching into the upper 30s/lower 40s. High
pressure builds across the Ohio Valley for Friday clearing the
clouds during the day time. The next system is timed for the
weekend. A decent push of warm air on Friday will boost
temperatures into the upper 40s/a few 50s and it remain dry
until evening. Cold frontal timing looks to be between late
Friday night or early Saturday. Precipitation coverage is still
in question and have continued with a similar forecast focusing
the best chances across the lake and into northeast OH/nw PA
going into and through Saturday morning. Precip type through mid
afternoon Saturday will be rain. Temperatures will struggle
Saturday with the cold air advection underway.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure pushing up the Ohio valley Sat night into Sun
night will cause lake effect snow showers to gradually taper off
from west to east so expect only some lingering flurries in NW
PA by Mon morning. Dry conditions should prevail for a brief
period then another approaching cold front will produce
increasing clouds Tue with a small chc for shra in the west by
the end of the day.

Temps will be below normal thru Mon then moderate closer to normal
by Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A band of showers, mixed with some snow at times, continues to
move over the east half of the area. A change to all snow is
expected for a brief time across far eastern Ohio into northwest
PA. Downwind of the lake some light snow showers could continue
into the morning hours. Clouds will break across western areas
in the morning, central areas in the afternoon, and far eastern
areas late evening into Wednesday night. SW flow will become W
right behind the front and then NW a couple hours after that.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come
Saturday as another cold front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Current small craft advisory will hold as is. Western basin is
now set to expire at 4am. Otherwise the rest of the lake goes
until Wednesday afternoon. A cold front crossing the lake will
bring winds around to the northwest. High pressure builds over
the lake Wednesday. A weak front crosses Thursday night, but
with just enough wind, waves may reach 4 feet across the east
half of the nearshore waters. For the weekend a cold front is
expected to cross the lake sometime late Friday night or
Saturday with increasing southwest flow ahead of it and a shift
to west-southwest behind it. Another trough Saturday night will
bring the winds around to the northwest with cold air advection.
Small craft advisories will likely be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Adams/Oudeman


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