Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220539
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will attempt to lift
north as a warm front overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to track along this boundary on Saturday, eventually
pushing it south of the area Saturday night. A compact upper
level trough will move across the Great Lakes region on Sunday
with high pressure arriving for the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Convection to the west over IL and IN has remained near the
same intensity as it moves eastward. Cloud top temperatures are
holding steady and some storms over IL exhibited rotation which
is consistent with rather high 0-1km shear near 30 knots. More
stable and much less sheared conditions are in place over the
CWA with CAPE aob 1000 J/kg. Earlier timing of the arrival of
convection into the region still seems reasonable. Convection
will likely be sub-severe in intensity given lack of diurnal
heating. Have made just minor changes to POPS and cloud cover
for overnight.

The most likely scenario on Saturday is for the MCS with
widespread rainfall to move through in the morning with this
limiting destabilization for part of the afternoon. If lesser
amounts of rain are received in the morning then potential for
severe thunderstorms in the afternoon along the warm front are
higher. The whole forecast area is included in a Slight Risk of
both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall. If robust
convection does re-develop Saturday afternoon/evening then
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be a possibility. Given
the proximity to the warm front, there could also be a tornado
threat but seems like the less likely scenario.

Whatever convection re-develops along remnant outflow
boundaries or the warm front will tend to favor a
south/southeast movement towards the greater instability
reservoir into Saturday night. Thunderstorms will continue to be
efficient rainfall producers until this boundary finally pushes
south of the area late Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering showers especially in the East on Sunday with
low pressure over Eastern Lake Erie. At this time models not in
good agreement on the exact track and timing of the low so will
only go with chance pops for Sunday. Secondary trough rotates
across the Eastern Lakes Sunday night kicking off a few more
showers. True cold front finally pushes across the forecast area
late monday ushering cooler and drier conditions. Temperatures
for the early part of the work week will actually be a couple of
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday as large area of high
pressure moves over the area. High pressure should dominate
enough to keep conditions mainly dry thru Wed. Warmer temps and
moisture return for Wed night into Thu while a weak cold front
drifts SE toward the area which could combine to start
triggering a few shra/tsra. The threat for shra/tsra will
continue for Fri but right now the better chc appears to be for
the SW half of the cwa as the cold front is expected to be into
central Oh by then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Still carefully watching the evolution of complex of
thunderstorms upstream across northern IL/IN. Latest thinking is
the bulk of the heaviest storms/aviation restrictions will be
across FDY/MFD and points south. North of there light/moderate
SHRA with some embedded thunder. This will be going on during
the morning hours with a brief lull in its wake. Possible re-
development of scattered convection later in the afternoon from
FDY to CAK to YNG, but still low chances in it actually
affecting a terminal. Wind will vary in the vicinity of the
convection, but overall flow will be light south except up
toward ERI where they will likely get a flow off of the lake for
a period of time today.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in early
morning fog/mist or scattered TS. Non- VFR in early morning
fog/mist may continue during the first half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front across SW Ohio will lift NE over the lake overnight.
Thunderstorms complex expected to move along the boundary across the
lake late tonight.  Choppy conditions will develop on the Lake
Saturday as a low pressure system tracks across the lower lakes. The
exact track of the low still in doubt, so a marginal small craft
advisory is not out of the question.  Winds turn back to the West
late Sunday as the low tracks east of the Lake.   High pressure
finally builds over the lake Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Adams/DJB
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...DJB



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