Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 280544
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
High pressure will tend to dominate the area through early next
week. There will be a weak cold front that drifts south across the
area thursday through saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...Forecast on track. No changes.
Original...A weak cold front will drift south across lake erie by
daybreak but general high pressure remains the dominate influence
across the area. This means moisture and dynamics are limited so
think tonight will remain dry. There could be some patchy fog late
tonight although some increase in clouds may be just enough to
prevent the fog.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper trough dropping se into the area will provide some
additional weak upper forcing to help the weak cold front drifting
south thru the cwa try and trigger some sct shra/tsra thu thru sat
night. The better moisture will be in the south along with the front
most of the time...so should see the better chc for precip there.
Winds off of lake erie will also provide a dampening effect for
convection developing near the lake from daytime heating.
Above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s thu should get moderated
back around normal for fri and sat.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will remain over the central Great Lakes
for Sunday and Monday. Will need to keep some slight chance/chance
pops for portions of the County Warning Area (CWA) with this
feature. At this point it looks like an afternoon/evening
thunderstorm chance. High pressure will attempt to take control of
the region Monday with dry conditions anticipated. The high looks to
slide east of the area by Tuesday with an increase in low level
moisture. This combined with warmer temperatures may allow for a few
Temperatures in the long term will be very close to seasonal
averages on Sunday and Monday. Warmer on Tuesday with highs ranging
from the mid 80s to around 90.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds spreading
northeast into the area. Conditions are VFR although could see
visibilities near TOL drop off briefly later tonight where less
cloud cover is expected. Otherwise the main forecast challenge will
be if or where showers or storms may develop this afternoon into
this evening as a weak cold front pushes south across Lake Erie.
High cloud will limit instability so did not include any
thunderstorms in the terminals. With that said, scattered showers
may develop with a chance of thunderstorm after 18Z and did
include VCSH at MFD/CAK/YNG where chances are highest. Winds will
be light through the TAF cycle, becoming northerly with the
frontal passage during the afternoon/evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday evening
through Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.
High pressure will remain the dominant feature over the central
Great Lakes through tonight. A weak cold front will move southward
across Lake Erie on Thursday. As high pressure builds in over the
lake in the wake of the front winds will become northeast. the
northeasterly winds will continue into the weekend as the area of
high pressure persists over southern Ontario. Waves will likely be
the largest on Thursday night into Friday with 1 to 3 feet possible.