Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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764
FXUS61 KCLE 050854
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN
DRIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN... ANY UPWARD
MOTION WHILE THERE IS A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
THE CLEARING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PA TO SEE THE CLEARING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FIRST TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST BY SO WE SHOULD ESCAPE ANY LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION...AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA ON THE RADAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE THE FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...LOWS IN THE 20S.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER OR BLOCK THE SUN BUT THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS FOR SOME BONIFIDE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
TREND... WILL CUT BACK ON THE EXISTING POP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE SNOW BELT AND JUST CALL IT FLURRIES. THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR SNOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CLOSE OFF. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OR NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. IT
COULD BE A SITUATION THAT WHEN THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARDER IT
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AND WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP IT BECOMES RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPS AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESIDE WITHIN A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES.  HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD...EAST COAST TROUGH ALSO
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
AREA SHUNTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN EAST COAST LOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND STREAM IT BACK WEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MEAN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BE AIDED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TURNING COLDER AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE NOW INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NOW BETWEEN TOL
AND MFD. THINK CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AS 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REACH NW PA UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TODAY TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. VARIABLE FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THEN LOW
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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