Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY
EAST. ALSO ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE GRIDS...HOWEVER TREND
REMAINS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SO ZONES
WILL STILL REFLECT THAT.

ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL EXPAND MORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NON VFR THIS MORNING. ALSO PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KTOL FIRST THING THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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