Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 201942
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Low pressure will track across southern and eastern Ohio this
evening along a frontal boundary. The low will reach central
pennsylvania to central New York State tonight. As the low passes
it will pull a strong cold front eastward with it. Much cooler
air will spill across Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania
Friday into Saturday which will cause lake effect showers across
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Will continue with the flash flood watch as is. Current
indications are that from 1 to locally 3 inches of rain will fall
overnight and into Friday morning. Main concern is where the
heaviest rain has already fallen from Trumbull County (3.5 inches)
WSW into Portage and Southern Summit (around 2 inches). Other
locations in the watch have had between 1 and 2 inches but also
have some terrain as well as lowered flash flood guidance values.
Radar shows another swath of showers with embedded thunder moving
northeast across central OH associated with the warm sector while
to the west rain continues from southern Indiana across NWRN OH in
the cold sector. Models show the precip continuing without much
movement east at least through the first half of the night as the
upper trough sharpens to our west. The second half of the night
the low and front shift east eventually taking the threat of
convection with it. Also towards morning drier air will begin
moving in from the northwest. Will have categorical pops through
the evening across the entire area dropping to chance after
midnight west. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Friday the upper trough axis will be over the area. Drier air will
shift in from the west during the day with 850mb temps continuing
to drop to between +1 and -1 east to west by evening. Will of
course end the rain west for the day but will need to begin with
categorical pops east dropping to chance and likely by evening.
Forcing does move east but with the colder air now over the lake
am concerned about lake enhancement starting. In fact Bufkit
forecast soundings show the lake-850mb temp difference reaches the
moderate category Friday evening and continues moderate into
saturday night. Through Friday night the fetch remains short with
winds NNW however moisture is fairly deep with CAPE to 20kft. Saturday
morning winds back to NW increasing the fetch although...moisture
will be less favorable. Basically will hold onto likely to
categorical pops Friday night through Saturday in the favored ares
of the snowbelt. Sunday conditions will improve with building
upper heights and a surface high which build into the area from
the south. Sunday night however will need to watch the path of a
short wave dropping southeast across the lakes. Temps below normal
Friday and Saturday and near normal Sunday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions still look marginal for lingering lake effect shra for a
good part of the day on monday then high pressure moves across the
region to provide dry wx into tue. The models show another weak cold
front trying to drop south into the area tue into wed with a band of
moisture with the front. Will add slight chc pops to cover this. A
band of warm advection moisture and possible rain looks reasonable
for wed. A better threat for shra will be wed night thru thu as the
low and cold front with the upper system should be moving across
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread rain on the north side of a low will likely keep a mix of
mvfr and ifr conditions over most of the area thru 18z friday. There
is a risk for some tsra mainly se of a line from eri to mfd. North
winds will increase to 12 to 20 knots this afternoon and tonight
turning more toward the nw on friday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lifting across the west Friday afternoon.
Northeast OH/northwest PA will have Non VFR possible through Sunday
morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.
The low moving from the upper oh valley into new england and high
pressure to the west will combine to produce sca conditions for most
or all of the lake into sunday. A reinforcing cold front with a low
along the front is expected to cross the area later sun/sun night
which could again kick up enough of a nw wind for sca conditions for
a while. Finally, high pressure will spread east over the lake
monday night into tue to diminish the winds.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ021-031-038-
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ022-023-032-
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149.