Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 220711
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
311 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move southeast
across the region tonight. The high will move off the east coast
Thursday night allowing a warm front to move north across Ohio
on Friday before stalling to our north. The front will sag back
into the area Saturday as a cold front.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
An arctic cold front swipes at the area early this morning but
while there is strong cold advection over the area, really, the
arctic air misses us and is more over new england. That said
850mb temps do drop to -10c to -12c this morning before
recovering a couple degrees by evening. Lake erie already
generating clouds across the eastern half of the CWA and snow
showers have developed off Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie.
KCLE radar also shows enhanced return in the Ohio snowbelt but
so far nothing showing up in the obs. For the morning, will have
a low chance/slight chance pop in for KCLE east through the
snowbelt. Otherwise for the day, high pressure and increasingly
dry air will build in from the northwest so any snow showers
should dry up and clouds should break northeast by mid day.
Elsewhere will have a sunny/partly cloudy forecast. Guidance
high temps look fine...mainly in the mid 30s will a few upper
20s in NWRN PA.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight the surface high will be across the region and winds
should drop to next to nothing during the night. With clear
skies and dry air aloft low temps should radiate into the teens
if not lower in places. MAV/MET guidance providing good numbers
vs the blended forecast so will through out the blend for the
lower MAV/MET numbers. Thursday warm advection occurs through
the day as the surface high moves east and winds aloft increase
out of the south. Moisture will also be increase although
believe much of the area will see sunny/partly cloudy conditions
much of the day. Western counties however will likely be mostly
cloudy before sundown. Guidance still in good agreement about
any precip holding off until after 00Z Friday west. Have left
Thursday night through Saturday largely unchanged although did
up pops on Saturday. The warm front will move north through the
area Friday and stall to our north before dropping back south
into the area Saturday. Friday dont think we will see too much
precip with the area largely in the warm sector. Did leave
chance pops in for the northeast given the proximity of the best
moisture. Saturday the GFS has deep moisture moving into the
area as the surface front drops south into the area and should
likely be the focus for showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of lows remain on track to move ne across the region Sun
thru Tue providing for good chances for rain while temps generally
run a little above normal. There are some model differences by late
Tue as to whether some drier air could be pulled east into the area.
The biggest issue may be whether repeated rains could eventually
start to produce a flood threat.
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Lake effect stratocu will hang around the snowbelt until Wed
afternoon then dissipate. Expect cigs from the stratocu to mostly be
3500 ft or higher with local areas 2500 to 3500 ft. Some sct
flurries of brief light snow showers may occur.
North winds will be gusty especially near Lake Erie. NNE winds will
diminish Wed afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr developing late Thu night into Fri
morning, returning late Sat then shifting into the east by Sun night.
The moderately tight pressure gradient feeding the arctic air south
across Lake Erie will lessen by this afternoon which should allow
sca conditions to end. The center of the high will drop se across
the lake tonight to produce light and changeable winds that turn se
on Thu before veering to sw for Fri and increasing to about 15 to 20
A cold front will drift south across the lake Sat morning turning
winds to the north then ne which then increase enough to possible
produce marginal sca conditions Sat night into Sun as a low
approaches the lake from the sw.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for