Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
253
FXUS61 KCLE 172254
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will move into the area tonight into
Monday, becoming stationary by Monday night. High pressure will
build back across the region Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows cu field continuing to dissipate across
the area this evening. Meanwhile scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing upstream across Indiana and Michigan
along the approaching cold front. Storm motion is more to the
northeast than the east and a weakening trend is expected with
the loss of diurnal heating. The airmass ahead of the front is
also less conducive to showers/thunderstorms with considerable
dry air to overcome. Delayed the chance of any precipitation in
our western counties until after midnight.

Previous discussion...Weakening cold front will move toward the
region tonight and will impact the weather on Monday. Plenty of
uncertainty with the coverage of the showers/thunderstorms this
evening through Monday evening. For now will keep the best
chances across NW Ohio on Monday. Will also have to monitor the
lake breeze boundary across NE Ohio into NW PA but confidence in
thunder development is low.

Some patchy fog will develop again tonight but with a few more
clouds around the coverage should be less than the last few nights.
Warmer tonight and MOnday night with the higher moisture levels.
Lows should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs Monday in the
lower 80s. However mid to upper 70s will occur near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Working only with a weak shortwave and marginal moisture,
little extra certainty can be added to the forecast for Tuesday.
Will still roll with 20 to 30 percent chances across the area.
Otherwise no significant weather to note. High pressure will be
in control for mid week. Temperatures will run above normal.
Lower/mid 80s for highs and lows around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft should remain in place
Thu night thru Sun to keep conditions dry. Temps will run above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue into the evening. A few more
clouds across the region overnight will likely limit the fog
when compared to the last few mornings. May mention some brief
MVFR fog across eastern TAF sites where the cloud cover has the
best chance of being scattered.

We will also need to monitor some showers or dissipating
thunder that may drift into NW Ohio through the night. There
may be enough outflow to produce a few pockets of MVFR ceilings.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog and/or stratus Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will dominate the weather across the lake for several
days with only a weak cold front trying to interfere with that
tomorrow. So there could be a shower/thunderstorm late tonight
through Monday, primarily across the western basin. Nearshore winds
will be 10 knots or less the entire week varying from south during
the night and onshore during the afternoons.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Oudeman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.