Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231950
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered along the mid Atlantic coast will move
off the coast tonight. Low pressure will slowly move from the
Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure will briefly build over the region late
Friday. A warm front is expected to develop over the Ohio
Valley by Saturday. The next cold front should arrive by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Kind of a busy weather map. The main trough/upper low was over Iowa
diving south. A weak short wave over the midwest will lift
north and the precipitation over the midwest should stay west
and north of the forecast area early tonight. A short wave over
the southern Appalachians was moving NNE. Many of the models
have been persistent in posting small amounts of QPF over NE OH
and W PA later tonight and despite the dry SE downslope flow in
the boundary layer, I could see a few showers coming out of the
mid level clouds later tonight into early Wednesday across NE OH
and NW PA. Condensation pressure deficits take until 09-12Z on
the NAM to become nearly saturated so it may be a challenge to
overcome the dry boundary layer. Have included a small pop
(15-30) after midnight for NE OH and NW PA.

Dew points are low and winds will be rather light but clouds will
increase tonight. Lows should be some 5-10 degrees warmer than
last night. Forecast lows will be near guidance which is
bunched mostly in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Not sure how the precipitation will evolve on Wednesday. There
could be a few morning showers NE OH/NW PA but the main event
will be the approach of the upper low and associated surface low
by Wednesday afternoon. The models continue with a variety of
solutions as far as the surface low. Some solutions develop a
relatively deep surface low, almost looking as though from
convective feedback. The forecast will just gradually increase
the pop from southwest to northeast on Wednesday with the
majority of the rain from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. Highs Wednesday are tricky. Temperatures could warm into
the lower 70s perhaps even mid 70s where the rain is slow to
arrive. Temperatures cold hold in the 60s if it is cloudy and
rain arrives quickly. The forecast will split the difference.

There remains some suggestion of a dry slot Wednesday night which
may be reasonable but did not try to get very specific with the
forecast just yet.

Likely or categorical pop on Thursday for showers under the upper
trough/low. If there is a dry slot, it may take a while for the
showers to fill in.

The GFS is faster lifting out the upper low on Friday. Not sure I
buy it just yet. Will keep a small chance for showers mainly over
NE OH/NW PA. High temperatures will recover toward normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Starting Sat, the upper pattern may have some weak ridging but a
surface frontal boundary should be near the area to provide a focus
for shra and tsra. Sun thru Tue the next s/w rotates se into the
upper trough to re-amplify the trough over the lakes. This will lead
to unsettled weather with chances for shra and maybe possible tsra
while near normal temps trend back below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR expected to continue until late tonight or Wed morning then shra
and possible tsra will spread north across the area causing areas of
non vfr to develop. The tsra threat appears too low to mention thru
15z and then only as VCTS after 15z. Light winds from mainly the
east will continue thru the period.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR late Wed thru Thu in showers and
possible tsra and again for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop over the IL/IN area tonight but remain
nearly stationary until slowly moving ne across Lake Erie early Thu
night and off the New England coast by late Fri. This will lead to
increasing ne winds of about 10 to 20 knots for Wed that should
become more east to se for Wed night then mainly sw then west Thu
into Thu night. As colder air pushes across the lake Thu night and
Fri there could be a period of near SCA conditions before winds
diminish to 10 knots or less by Fri evening and start to back to
south then east ahead of the next low that should move near the lake
Sat night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams/Oudeman



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