Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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188
FXUS61 KCLE 090108
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
808 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure near James Bay will drift east to northern
Quebec. A trough of low pressure will extend southwest across the
central Great Lakes. The trough will drop southeast and cross Lake
Erie tonight. Saturday high pressure will build into the region
from the central plains. Sunday another low will move through the
western Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The heavy west to east oriented lake effect snow bands that were
ongoing this afternoon have lost their connection from Lake
Michigan and have started to shift onshore. Moderate to heavy
snow is still falling across the snowbelt of northeast Ohio into
Pennsylvania but we will be in a transition period overnight as
the flow shifts to the northwest. Expect the snow to continue
along the I-90 corridor for several more hours then push more inland
with northwest flow bands developing in favored areas. Temperatures
at 700mb will cool a couple more degrees overnight which will
strengthen the instability over the lake. Can not rule out
isolated thunderstorms but will wait to see another intense band
develop before adding to the forecast. Snowfall totals from
Lake/northern Geauga County to northwest Pennsylvania range from
roughly 4 to 7 inches. Some locations have reported an ice pellet
type of snow.

Previous discussion...Upgraded Cuyahoga county to an advisory.
This will continue to be monitored for a potential upgrade. Also
have upgraded Lake county and the Ashtabula county lakeshore to a
warning. Lake effect bands developed quickly late this morning and
have since moved onshore across northeast Ohio and NWRN PA with
the heaviest in Ashtabula and Erie counties. This will transition
through the evening hours to a more west-northwest fetch and will
begin to affect eastern Cuyahoga Geauga and inland Ashtabula
counties more. Snow and squalls will continue across NWRN PA. This
WNW fetch will persist through the remainder of the night.
Forecast shear on Bufkit continues to show shear in the Cleveland
area through the night but with moderate instability...dendritic
growth and deep moisture believe it will have only a small effect
although it could help to keep a large single band from
developing. For now will go with 4 to 6 inches inland Erie county
and closer to 4 inches Geauga and Ashtabula. Cuyahoga should see
highest totals east. Went with 1 to 3.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds continue from the northwest through the first half of the
day. Given fetch eastern Cuyahoga southern Lake and Geauga
counties are favored as well as NWRN PA. Winds back to more of a
westerly direction during the afternoon. Winds then continue from
a more westerly direction through friday night before backing to
southwest through the day Saturday. Instability to the lake
continues moderate to briefly extreme through the period so expect
lake effect snow and squally will continue Friday into Saturday.
By Saturday afternoon expect 1 to 1.5 feet of snow in Geauga and 1
to 2 feet NWRN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in good agreement with large area of high pressure moving
across the Lower Lakes Saturday night.  The last few lingering snow
showers hugging the Eastern Erie shore will finally come to an end
Saturday evening as the 850mb ridge moves through.  Unfortunately
the high pressure moves quickly east of the area allowing an
Oklahoma low to move into the Mid Mississippi Valley.  With the gulf
wide open this will set up an overrunning situation.  Expect
widespread light synoptic snow to spread across the entire area late
Saturday night and continue through Sunday.   Track of the low still
in doubt.   The ECMWF tracks the low across the Lower Great Lakes on
Monday...while the GFS tracks the low over DTW and then the Central
Lakes.   Depending upon the track of the low...snow could change to
a mix Monday afternoon.   For the forecast used the superblend temps
for Monday.   Precip ends from the West Monday night as the low
tracks East.

Next arctic air mass will push southeast through the Great Lakes
Tuesday through Wednesday. ECMWF brings the arctic front through
Tuesday night with no precip, while the GFS/GEM brings light snow
across the area. Will keep chance/slight chance pops in the forecast
for Tuesday through Wednesday. Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes
with arctic high pushing east across the Ohio Valley will allow
temperatures to plummet with highs in the teens to 20s Wednesday
and Thursday, with single digit lows Wednesday night. Kept chance
pops in for the snow belt given favorable fetch for lake effect
Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow bands will affect the
area between CLE and ERI over the next 24 hours. Outside of this
area mainly flurries with a few isolated moderate snow showers
mixed in. Any holes of VFR will be short-lived as MVFR ceilings
will be predominate outside of snow showers. TOL has the
opportunity to be impacted by bands off of Lake
Michigan...difficult to give definitive timing to it. CLE will be
on the verge of snow bands especially overnight and Friday
morning. CLE will likely get impacted by a few heavier snow
showers. ERI has improved and for the next several hours expect
the heaviest snow to be to the south of the field. Overall driving
west flow will shift more northwest tonight bringing snow showers
to a broader area from north-central OH to nw PA with intermittent
drops to IFR. Late Friday this flow is expected to back more west
and then west- southwest Saturday which will take snow showers
back up the lakeshore toward PA. Occasional gusts to 25 knots will
continue overnight.

OUTLOOK...Mainly mvfr cigs thru monday with areas of ifr in lake
effect snow showers into saturday then widespread snow sunday into
monday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds to 30 knots will turn to the northwest overnight and
diminish to 15 to 25 knots as a trough swings across the lake. Small
craft ends on the Western portion of the Lake tomorrow as winds
diminish to 10 to 20 knots.   Small craft will continue on the rest
of the lake into Saturday with a west to northwest flow of 15 to 20
knots.   Get a break Sunday as high pressure moves across the lower
lakes and the winds shift to the south.  Break will be short lived
however.  Small craft advisory likely again on Monday as another
storm system moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for
     OHZ012>014-089.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ011.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...DJB



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