Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301747
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING HAS
INITIATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FDY AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NWPA AND NEOH...WITH CONDITIONS
STILL FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
HAS STAYED OFFSHORE...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE WATER. A WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...SO THE LOGIC REMAINS THEY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

BY MID-AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS..IN CONCERT WITH THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K FEET AGL...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
HAVE NICKEL HAIL OR LARGER. ALL IN ALL POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY LATER TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR EXCEPT OVER LAKE
ERIE WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT KERI. DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






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