Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 241945
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016
High pressure will strengthen over the eastern Great Lakes tonight
then move off the east coast Monday. Meanwhile an upper level low
will move into the Great Lakes region with a cold front sweeping
east across the area on Monday. Low pressure will linger over the
Great Lakes Region through mid-week before shifting east.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Clouds will continue to scatter out through the early evening with
the greatest concentration focused downwind of Lake Erie in
northwest Ohio. As the flow becomes more easterly overnight, may see
a lake effect cloud band re-organize off the west end of the lake
with scattered clouds streaming towards Toledo before shifting north
into Michigan. Otherwise can expect a few patches of high cloud but
these will not last long enough in any particular area to have an
impact on temperatures. Given the light winds and mostly clear
skies, temperatures will drop off quickly this evening. Lows will be
10+ degrees cooler than last night ranging from the low to mid
40s in northwest Pennsylvania to near 50 in northwest Ohio.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
After a cool start, temperatures on Sunday will recover to near or
slightly above normal with a ridge building aloft and mostly sunny
skies. We remain under the influence of easterly flow with the
surface high over the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be
cooler in the east, with highs struggling to reach 70 in
Pennsylvania, increasing to upper 70s in western/central Ohio.
The upper low over the Rockies is forecast to lift north and get
absorbed by the trough over western Canada. The trough will deepen
across the upper midwest with another closed low setting up over the
Great Lakes Region for the first half of the week. A fairly strong
cold front will move across the area on Monday with showers
developing along the cold front. The front is forecast to clear even
the eastern counties by mid-afternoon. Given the cool start to the
morning and arrival of clouds and showers, lowered highs a couple
degrees. A dry slot is forecast to wrap in quickly behind the
front bringing an end to precipitation from west to east.
After a long stretch of above normal temperatures, this cold front
will usher in the coolest air so far this fall. Some models
suggest 850mb temps may drop below 4C but these cool airmasses are often
modified slightly as they move across the Great Lakes. Highs on
Tuesday will only reach the lower to mid 60s. Scattered to broken
lake effect clouds are expected with a few showers possible along
the northeast lakeshore.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper low across the Rockies today will top the central U.S. ridge
and then carve itself a deep trough across the northeastern U.S. for
next week. In the big picture...models show a similar set up...with
the deterministic ECMWF holding the cut off upper low across the
Ohio Valley the outlier. Clouds and instability and lake effect
showers will rotate in Wednesday as the upper low moves across Great
Lakes. Will continue with the precipitation chances across northeast
OH/nw PA Wednesday into Wednesday night. Will remain hopeful that
the upper low does begin to open and exit by Thursday...allowing
high pressure to build in from the west. Temperatures will be
coolest Wednesday/Thursday and slowly modify going into the weekend.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Stratocu deck across northwest Ohio will continue to slowly erode
from northeast to southwest this afternoon. Clouds are mostly VFR
but patches of MVFR clouds remain and may impact TOL/FDY through
20Z. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the
TAF cycle. The only exception would be if lake effect clouds reach
TOL overnight, but mainly expecting just scattered coverage.
Northeast winds of 7-12 knots today except some gusts to near 20
at ERI. Winds will drop off closer to 5 knots tonight and shift
around to easterly. Lake breezes expected again after 16Z Sunday
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday in showers. Occasional non-VFR
at CLE/ERI with lake effect clouds or showers on Tuesday and
Winds have peaked and will settle at 10 to 15 knots by late evening.
Waves still running 3 to 6 feet so SCA will be extended until 9 pm
when conditions should be safely below sca criteria.
Winds remain from the east-northeast through Sunday before veering
to the southeast and then south Sunday night. A strong cold front
will cross the lake on Monday. Southerly flow will pick up ahead of
the front rather quickly on Monday...and shift to the west late
afternoon/evening. A small craft advisory will be needed with and
behind the front. A secondary trough crosses the lakes on Tuesday
with funneling west-southwest winds down the length of the
lake...perpetuating the need for continuing the SCA. Wind/waves will
subside Tuesday night as the decaying parent low rotates across the
eastern Great Lakes mid week. As high pressure builds west of the
lake the flow will become northerly for Thursday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for