Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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127
FXUS61 KCLE 291730
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across Ohio and western
Pennsylvania through Sunday morning. Weak waves of low pressure
will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast
across the area Sunday afternoon pushing the front and the low
pressure system away from the region. The high pressure center
will move southeast by mid week allowing for a return back to
warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Better coverage of cumulus today and a few showers/storms
beginning to pop up. Will leave the forecast largely as is.
Frontal boundary is right across northern OH. Heavy rainfall
will be the primary threat as storm motions are very slow/nearly
stationary. Overall severe threat low. Highs in the lower/mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move slowly east and out of the area
by Sunday. This will allow surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes area to build east southeast with time by the latter half
of the weekend.

Due to the close proximity to the stationary front and a series of
low pressure systems, the potential exists for the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms through the early portions of the
forecast period. Expecting the front to begin to make a push
southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the high
pressure center. No severe thunderstorms are expected through the
forecast period. Only a general risk for thunderstorm development
is expected.

The high pressure will build across the local area through the
early part of next week. As the high begins to move east of the
area, a return back to warm southerly flow is expected.
Temperatures will begin to creep back well into the 80s to lower
90s at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridge axis will build overhead through the middle of
next week. Models have been hinting that energy will spill around
the building ridge on Tuesday and kick off an area of showers and
thunderstorms to our west. With high pressure and a dry airmass in
place, better chances for convection will remain west of the
forecast area but did include a low 20 percent pop in the western
counties on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise dry conditions
expected during the mid-week period with temperatures warming back
up. Did slow down the warming trend a little bit on Tuesday but
highs should be solidly in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Main concern for initial periods of the TAF are the locations of
the hit/miss thunderstorms that are developing in this unorganized
environment. The lake shadow area was expected to hold storms away
from CLE yet the boundary has stalled just over the airport. We
be going with the more pessimistic forecast for CLE given the
lack of that stronger lake breeze. ERI however should remain VRF.
The rest of the TAF sites will see the potential for thunder, but
isolated chances. Have tempos for TOL/FDY/MFD for later this
afternoon when an area of low pressure moves in from the west and
adds support for convection. Any thunderstorms that develop today
will be slow moving and could produce heavy rainfall. Storm
coverage should lessen overnight with the reduced instability.
Have no mention at this time of rain overnight. The moist airmass
will linger so expect mvfr visibilities.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Areas of morning fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak front will settle south of Lake Erie today with northeasterly
winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. High pressure will expand north
of the lakes and remain in place through the weekend, maintaining
winds out of the east/northeast. Winds are expected to peak on
Saturday afternoon in the 10-20 knot range as an area of low
pressure moves across Ohio. Waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria but will likely increase to 2-4 feet with
the onshore flow. High pressure will set up over Lake Erie from
Monday into Wednesday with light wind and wave conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/Jamison
MARINE...KEC



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