Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260240
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1040 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over indiana will move across the area tonight then
high pressure will push east across the great lakes friday through
saturday. A dissipating cold front will push east into lake erie
sunday before high pressure builds back over lake erie for much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
With the front yet to go through...will hold on to a 20 percent
chance through the rest of the night.

Previous discussion...Storms popped across northeast
Ohio/northwest PA with very few looking to pose much threat. We
had been fairly capped and mid level lapse rates are weak. Cold
front just now lying near the MI/OH border. This front will push
the super muggy out of the area...but not until late tonight. Most
of the support ends here this evening...pushing east. This in
conjunction with the loss of daytime heating...will stick with the
forecast that brings precip chances down overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highs on friday will run in the low to mid 80s.

The stretch of dry wx should continue thru sat night as high
pressure remains in control. There is a dissipating cold front that
tries to move into the area on sun which could provide focus for
some tsra development but the situation is marginal so will keep the
pops relatively low. Temps will be warmer on the weekend with highs
mostly in the mid to upper 80s although some of the far ne could
stay in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models consistent moving the cold front south of the forecast area
during the day on Monday...so could see some lingering showers
Monday morning...but surface high pressure pushes south over the
forecast area.   Weak upper level short wave moves across the Great
Lakes Tuesday afternoon so left low chance pops going then.  After
that models diverge.   GFS basically keeps high pressure over the
forecast area through the period with temps a few degrees above
normal.   The ECMWF on the other hand has tropical system moving NE
across the Florida panhandle and the SERN states on Wednesday.
Either way it should be should be basically dry although isolated
afternoon TSRA not totally out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Storms are mostly confined to extreme northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania along the lake breeze and prefrontal trough. The
storms should move east of the area early tonight. Cannot rule
out an isolated storm especially across extreme northeast OH and
northwest PA overnight as the cold front sags across the area.
MVFR and local IFR fog possible inland northeast OH and inland
northwest PA early Friday morning where the dew points do not drop
off quickly enough. Drier air should mix down on Friday with fair
weather cumulus and patchy cirrus and VFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday
morning with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front across SE lower Michigan will push across the lake
tonight. Expect scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front this
evening. Potential for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to
severe as SPC had area under slight risk of severe. Choppy
conditions behind the front as the winds turn to the West to
Northwest at 10 to 15 knots. Winds of 10 to 20 knots with the
front not totally out of the question...especially in the east.
High pressure quickly builds in tomorrow and will last into early
Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB


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