Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130439
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. ADJUSTED THE LOWS BASED ON SOME RAIN COOLED AIR MOVING
INTO NW OH BY DAYBREAK. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN THOUGH
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OVER NE
OH AND NW PA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BRING IN NOTABLY MORE MOIST AIR TO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH TIMING/INSTABILITY
WILL NOT SUPPORT STRONG STORMS...CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 08Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MOVES
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD MIX DOWN GIVEN ANY
NOTABLE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE WARM NOSE JUST OFF THE DECK WILL
PREVENT MUCH MIXING TO THE SURFACE KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. ALSO A CONCERN WITH CONVECTION WILL BE THE INCREASED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL JUMP TO AROUND 2"
WHICH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING AS STORM
MOTIONS WILL KEEP THE STORMS FROM CONTINUALLY DUMPING OVER A
SINGLE AREA. IF TRAINING DEVELOPS OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAN RAPID RUNOFF IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
A HEIGHTENED FLOOD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY MORNING...EXPECTED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT...A FEW ON EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS/LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ON HOW THE
DAY WILL PROGRESS WITH MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM
SE MI/TOL AND ACROSS THE LAKE. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FUTURE CONVECTION AS WELL AS WHERE ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RESIDE. AREA IS WITHIN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF SEVERE INGREDIENTS LOOK GOOD ASSUMING WE
ARE AMPLY UNSTABLE. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND PW
APPROACHES 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY HAVE SOME TRAINING. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA HOPEFULLY BY MIDNIGHT AND WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLD FRONT...THIS ONE BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...CROSSES ON MONDAY. AGAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE. A WEST BREEZE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN H8 TEMPS THAT WILL FALL BELOW 10C
MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE THE SHOWER THREAT
ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR LOWER BUT NOT ZERO AT
THIS POINT. WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 70 DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TUESDAY.
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IF THEY DO OCCUR IT WILL BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD NUDGE HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THIS
EVENING. A FEW PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE TOLEDO AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 01-02Z WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT.

THE WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. KERI WILL BE EVEN WINDIER DUE TO
THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM RUN SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE THUNDER
INTO THE TOLEDO AREA AN HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING...BUT MORE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

REGARDLESS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE LAKE
SEEING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. THESE WINDS WILL BE DISRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE LAKE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO AFTER
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE LONGER FETCH WILL BUILD WAVES TO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT
BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. THE
LONGER FETCH FROM THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD WAVES ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY MORNING TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE WARMER WATERS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE
LAKE. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR EVEN TOWER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD GENERATE WATERSPOUTS. DID NOT ADD
THIS TO THE GRIDS YET BUT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ADDED AT SOME POINT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MULLEN







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