Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 232119
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
419 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south into the area this evening
and stall for several hours before turning back north as a warm
front by morning. Low pressure over the central Mississippi
Valley will track into western lower Michigan by Friday evening.
A trailing strong cold front will sweep east across the area
Friday night. Much colder high pressure will build over the Ohio
Valley over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

The weak cold front just to the north of the area will settle
south into the area this evening and stall. Some instability is
present with about 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE present with little
inhibition over the southern half of the CWA. Cloudiness is
increasing from the west and the radar mosaic shows rain
spreading east into Indiana with a few light returns aloft over
nw Ohio. Expect this activity to continue to spread east across
the area tonight. Some elevated CAPE is expected to persist
overnight so we will mention the chance of thunder.

The frontal boundary will lift northward toward morning
lessoning the chance of rain so we can expect a decrease in
pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A big swing in the weather is expected during this period as we
change from very warm conditions to more seasonal weather with
dramatic cooling along with the chance of severe weather.

By Friday morning the warm front will have lifted north of the
region taking much of the shower activity with it. That will
leave the region in the warm sector with unseasonably warm and
humid air flowing north across the region. Expect most of the
day to be dry and springlike with readings soaring well into
the 70s. A capping inversion will be present during much of
Friday which should limit convection.

By around 23 UTC we expect convection to develop/move into the
western counties from near FDY to TOL. The environment is
favorable for severe weather with CAPE near 1000 J/KG with
strong deep layer and low level wind shear along with LCL
heights below 1000M. Damaging winds will be the main threat but
we cannot rule out a few tornadoes in the TOL to FDY to the Lake
Erie islands region shortly after dark. The threat for severe
weather will gradually diminish as the activity progresses east
during the evening. Colder air will sweep into the region after
the frontal passage.

For Saturday we can expect windy and sharply colder conditions.
Temperatures will be slowly falling with gradually decreasing
chances of rain. We can expect early morning high temperatures
from about 40 to 50.

Cold advection will continue into the overnight with a more
typical low in the 20s. We can expect scattered lake effect snow
showers but the activity will be limited with the inversion
quickly lowering to below 5000 ft.

Improving conditions are expected Sunday as high pressure builds
into the region.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures will be in the mid 40s on Monday as a low
approaching from the west brings southerly winds to the region.
There are significant differences between the GFS and ECMWF,
however. The ECMWF is nearly 24 hours slower than the GFS with
bringing an upper- level shortwave trough and its associated
weak surface low across the Ohio Valley. The GFS also has a
stronger shortwave compared to the ECMWF, so it therefore has
more QPF. The ECMWF has been consistently winning these battles
this winter, so continued to only go with a chance of
precipitation for this time frame as the slower solution is more
favored at the moment.

Due in part to the timing differences, the GFS is much cooler on
Tuesday compared to the ECMWF. Have once again sided with the warmer
ECMWF, which would bring temps up into the lower 50s Tuesday
afternoon with a chance of showers.

Both models bring a stronger cold front across the region sometime
on Wednesday, though they vary considerably with the placement of
the low. Both models do have a broad upper level trough moving
across the Midwest during this time frame. It looks like there will
at least be a chance of showers and perhaps some storms ahead of the
front, with colder air arriving behind the cold front. We could see
a few snow showers Wednesday night as temperatures drop below
freezing and some wrap around moisture works its way into the area.
Confidence in the long range forecast is quite low at this time, so
expect changes to the forecast in the coming days as our confidence
grows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front is pushing south toward the lake shore and there is
the possibility that this is about where it could stall before
lifting back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Some lower
ceilings and visibilities will be a problem overnight with some
light drizzle and shower activity. As front lifts north of the
area, clouds will scatter out at around 2500 feet for the rest
of the day tomorrow ahead of the next strong cold front. Not
expecting any thunderstorms through this forecast period but
should arrive during the late afternoon evening Friday. Winds
will flip around to a northeast component near the lake but
remain primarily southwest overnight away from the lake. The
winds will then increase to 15 to 25 knots during the day Friday
ahead of the cold front from the southwest.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns Friday evening/overnight then mainly just
snowbelt by later Saturday into Sunday. Areas on non-vfr
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front currently along northern portions of Lake Erie will
continue to slowly drop across the lake this evening, veering winds
from SW to N then NE for tonight. Winds will continue to veer around
to the south by Friday afternoon as the front lifts back north
across the lake as a warm front. A deep low will move NE across the
central Great Lakes Friday night, forcing a strong cold front across
Lake Erie overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will increase to 20
to 30 knots out of the west on Saturday then gradually diminish late
Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
for Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mottice



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