Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE
EAST TO THE VIRGINIA COAST BY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST OUT OF MAINE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NICELY AND EXPECTED WIND SHIFT HAS TAKEN
PLACE AT ERIE PA AND FAR NE OHIO. WILL MONITOR THE CUMULUS AND SEE
IF A SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BIT OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20 PERCENT
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING WELL...AND WILL HOLD ON TO
MID/UPPER 80S FORECAST WITH AROUND 80 NEAR THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TREND IS FOR THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER IN LATE AUGUST AND A REPRIEVE FROM
WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL LAST WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP FOR THE MOST PART A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
GOING. SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS SOME SMALL BITS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MINIMAL AT BEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING ANY REAL AIR MASS CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.  WILL GO OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP STORMS EACH AND EVERY
AFTERNOON.  SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  LOT`S OF NOISE IN THE MODELS RIGHT
NOW SO HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE.  A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT HIGHS WILL BE
A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IT
APPEARS SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION 90 AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE. DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD IMPACT MFD...CAK...OR YNG BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE
WESTERN TAF SITES OF TOL AND FDY WHERE THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE FOG
NEARBY LAST NIGHT. DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70 AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO DEVELOP AND MVFR FOG TO FORM AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI. PATCHY IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT WEST...
FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE ERIE ALL WEEK.  THE
GRADIENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW OR W.  SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS SO ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT DEVELOPING.  AGAIN
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  NOT ANTICIPATING ON NEEDING
ANY HEADLINES THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KUBINA


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