Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211603
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LORAIN
AND MEDINA COUNTY. THE LAST GASP OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FLOW BECOMES WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF
THIS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SNOW BELT. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT...WITH FEWER
AND FEWER PERSISTENT BANDS. HAVE CANCELED THE HEADLINES FOR LORAIN
AND CUYAHOGA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS IS HERE. NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AT CLE WHILE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
YNG/ERI. THESE WILL END BY ABOUT 15Z AT YNG AND 18Z AT ERI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS AT ERI THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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