Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192216
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MID AND
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DROPS TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN AND THE UPWARD MOTION INCREASES BUT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
AND WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED ON THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF THIS EVENING THEN LEVEL
OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. FORECAST LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S WITH SOME MID 40S NEAR LAKE ERIE.


ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO
FINALLY BEGIN BREAKING UP. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD ENJOY SUNSHINE
THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A TAD LATER THAT EARLIER THOUGHT. AS A
RESULT...MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
THE KTOL AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT REALISTICALLY THINK IT WILL BE
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE ANY PRECIP ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW TRACK IS NOW EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z TUESDAY. SEE NO REASON WHY IT WON`T RAIN
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE GONE LIKELY OR HIGHER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES THE ENTIRE AREA. THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE AND MORE SHOWERS.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ONLY THE EASTERN END
OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPS WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY TO MID NOVEMBER
THAN LATE OCTOBER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THEN THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS AT TRYING TO WRAP
MOISTURE WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW. THE GOING FORECAST HAD HIGHER
CLOUDS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NE OHIO WITH A LOW POP ON THURSDAY.
THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AND BUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
PRETTY LOW GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM THE
OHIO COUNTIES WITH JUST A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE REMAINING IN PA WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THURSDAY...DRY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE TOWARDS
SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER PER THE ECMWF...THEN IT COULD
PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE WEAKER
SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS SUGGESTS THE COLDER AIR PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAN TOWARDS JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BKN CLOUD DECK NEAR 3500 FEET WILL LINGER AT ERI FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BECOME BREEZY
AFTER 16Z MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL REMAIN VFR
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES IN NE
OHIO/NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO LAKE
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND WAVES MAY STAY UP LONGER
THEN EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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