Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240918
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY TO
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS
FINALLY ARRIVED. THE STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO WESTERN OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE WINDOW FOR THE
STRONG WINDS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW TIME FRAME FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKE SHORE. SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  THEREFORE...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST HALF AND IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE IN THE NORTHEAST.  A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
REST OF THE EASTERN AREAS.

NEXT PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE GOING TO DEAL WITH.  SOME
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR AND HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. STORM SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND FAST MOVING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT GENERATED THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY VACATE THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ACTUALLY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST THE
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BACK TO THE LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. SOME
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AND IT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING
ANY MAJOR COOL DOWNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING LAST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY MAJOR COLD AIR
OUT BREAK JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEW YEAR TO ARRIVE. SO FAR THIS LOOKS
TO BE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK
AT...THE COLD AIR TAKES A GLANCING BLOW WHILE THE OTHER MODEL SLOWS
THE COLD AIR EXITING OUR AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED IS NOT CLEAR CUT. ON SUNDAY THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ENDING FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE AND WARMER TO START. AT
THIS TIME KEPT THE THREAT JUST SNOW SHOWERS BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS BRING A LOW UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE MODELS KEEP
SHOWING THIS TREND. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOWEST IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING WITH AREAS IF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. WE
SHOULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTH WIND AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
(OR MORE) INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY INTO THURSDAY. NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN
SATURDAY CONTINUING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE LAKE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME
QUESTION ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
START. WILL HAVE THE GALE WARNING START ON THE WEST END AT 22Z AND
ON THE EAST END AT 02Z. WE ALSO COULD HAVE A SQUALL LINE MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGH WINDS. THE LOW
MOVES QUICK SO THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS. SOME
CONCERN WITH THE 925 MB WINDS ON THE LAKE OVER 50 KNOTS...THE COLD
ADVECTION IS SOMEWHAT GRADUAL SO GOING WITH SUSTAINED OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS THE WATER
LEVEL WILL DROP ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING...A
LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. ONCE THE GALE DECREASE LATE
THURSDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END.

A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT IS IN WARM ADVECTION SO WE MAY NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND
WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE IN
THE COLD ADVECTION. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL
BE EAST AND LIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. THE CURRENT RECORDS ARE:

CLEVELAND   65  1964        AKRON-CANTON    63  1964
ERIE        66  1964        MANSFIELD       62  1964
TOLEDO      65  1889        YOUNGSTOWN      63  1982

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ013-014-021>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY
     FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
CLIMATE...MULLEN





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