Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 222100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
High pressure centered over Lake Superior will drift southeast
over the local area on Monday and shift to the Carolinas by
Tuesday morning. The high will become stationary over the
southeast states the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift
north across the area on Wednesday and we will likely remain in a
warm south flow the second half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Made a minor change in the early evening forecast for the far
eastern counties with a better PoP gradient across Mahoning and
Stark Counties (20-30 PoP), the only place where there is any
coverage of showers to speak of. These showers should diminish
quickly early this evening as the atmosphere cools and stabilizes.
Original "Tonight" discussion...
It`s turned out to be a nice day as high pressure and subsidence
appear to be winning out. Just a few showers still in the YNG area
and will leave a 20 pop in to cover that for a few hours. After
that expecting clear to mostly clear skies overnight. The evening
will be very pleasant. Have stayed close to guidance for lows.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A couple days of quiet weather days are in store for the area as
high pressure moves overhead on Monday. This high will slide off
to the southeast by early Tuesday allowing warm air advection to
really get going. Highs on Monday will be near normal and finally
make it above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Have not made any
significant changes to the precip for the middle portion of the
week. Have slowed the start of the precip down a little Tuesday
night but have have spread it into NW PA a little sooner than
previously forecast. It still looks like Wednesday night will be
be the wettest period. By that time surface dewpoints will be in
the lower 60s. Thunder appears likely. Will stay with chance pops
most of the area for now but as time nears suspect that we will
need a period of likely wording. Given the upcoming airmass change
have not strayed too far from guidance for temps.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little has changed from recent model runs for the thu thru sun
period. The upper ridge that tries to build over the area is
continuously hit with a series of weak upper troughs moving ne into
the ridge that the ridge never really gets established.
The only feature of significance for the period is that the models
are better depicting a back door cold front that drops down to the
lakeshore counties by wed evening. The location of this front and
corresponding wind direction could end up having a significant
effect on high temps for thu but will need more model run to run
consistency before adjusting temps down for thu.
Thus with the combination of forcing mechanism`s in place during the
period will keep chc or better pops for shra/tsra each day while
mainly southerly component winds should provide a little above
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
The cu field will dissipate into sunset. The airmass dries out
enough at the lowest levels so not expecting fog to form. More cu
will develop by late mon morning and could increase to locally bkn
coverage by midday.
The lake breeze enhancing winds to 10 to 15 knots near lake erie
will end with sunset then increase again mon afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
The lake breeze enhancement to the winds will diminish with sunset
so waves of 1 to 3 feet will settle down to less than 2 feet
tonight. There will be a little lake breeze enhancement again mon
afternoon then high pressure will cross the lake and winds will turn
out of the s to sw tue thru fri and tend to run 5 to 15 knots. A
possible back door cold front may push across the lake for a while
late wed into thu and result in an east to ne flow. For now will
stay with superblend progs.