Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 241925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
A front north of Lake Erie will move little overnight but will
move back south of the lake on Saturday where it will stall
again. Low pressure over Oklahoma will move to northern Illinois
by early Sunday and then across the central Great Lakes Sunday
night and Monday. A front from this low will move across the
local area late Sunday. Another area of low pressure will pass
just to the southeast of the area on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The shower activity from earlier in the day has ended and much
of the area should be dry overnight. The earlier activity was
likely caused by some mid level warming and moistening.
Overnight precip chances will be confined to mainly NW PA which
will be closest to the front. The front will begin to drift back
south after 06z and it is possible that the NW tip of the area
could see some showers by 12z. Temps will again be tricky as it
has gotten warm today. Guidance numbers are in good agreement
and will be followed.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Precip chances will continue to be a challenge during the
period. It looks like much of the area could remain dry both
Saturday and Saturday night. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the western and northern ends of the area. Have
gone ahead and lowered precip chances most areas for both
periods. No longer expecting all day rains just passing showers
from time to time. The other challenge for Saturday is the
front which will move back south of the lake by midday.
Depending on which guidance you believe the front will be
through CLE between mid and late morning with temps falling
considerably behind this feature. Lows near the lakeshore will
likely occur by mid morning. Further inland it will be another
warm day so by 18z there could be a 20 degree or more
temperature gradient. Precip chances will finally advance to the
southeastern end of the area on Sunday as the surface low
crosses the western lakes. A front from this low will lift
across the area by the end of the day. Will go with high pops
and warm temps all areas. Sunday will also see the best chances
for thunder as surface dewpoints will be in the lower 50s.
Things will try to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night. Cannot rule out a few showers on Monday. It will again
be warm with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precip chances
will begin to increase again Monday night as another low
approaches from the southwest. Lot`s of model differences with
that system and those can be dealt with later.
Have stayed on the warm side of guidance for highs.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rather fast zonal flow with progressive embedded cut off lows will
persist across the eastern half of the US during the period. A weak
system will be exiting the region Tuesday with a few lingering
showers over the eastern half of the CWA mainly in the morning. Weak
seasonably cool high pressure will build by to the north and produce
a cool northerly flow off of still chilly Lake Erie. The next
system will approach the region Thursday with some uncertainty in
timing and phasing of the northern and southern jet streams. The
ECMWF phases both streams into another major storm west of the
region while the GFS is weaker and slower with a more southern
track. In either case moisture will move into the region late
Thursday or Thursday night and last into Friday with showers.
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Strong mixing behind a warm front has produced wind gusts around
25kt across the terminals. This will gradually diminish after
dark and once the mixing and low level jet weaken. Moisture
advection will support some cloudy conditions overnight which
will help prevent fog development despite dew points around 50
degrees. Ceilings will move in around 5k feet, but could drop as
low as 2500 feet closer to the warm front near the lakeshore.
The primary challenge on Saturday will be the location and
timing of the front as it dips back south into the region. The
Erie airport will see the wind shift to the northeast will occur
around 12Z with MVFR and possible IFR conditions thereafter.
For CLE the timing will be difficult as models waver between 14
and 18Z. MVFR will likely transition to IFR during the day as
rain chances increase. The next TAF site to see reduced
conditions will be TOL which will be at the tail end of this TAF
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday and Sunday. Non VFR
possible again Monday night and Tuesday.
Small craft advisories are in place for the nearshore waters through
the evening for the frequent gusts around 25 knots. There will be a
drop in winds and waves overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes
with high pressure over eastern Canada. The frontal boundary over
the northern part of the lake will move south as a backdoor cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will keep rain
and cooler conditions over the lake. Northeast winds will strengthen
on Saturday afternoon as the low over Missouri deepens and moves
towards the Ohio Valley. Small craft conditions will likely develop
especially given the favorable fetch in northeast flow. Southeast
winds will develop on Sunday as the low lifts north of the region.
Conditions will continue to improve into Monday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ145>149.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for