Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 171440
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
940 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Hudson Bay will slide southeast into Quebec by
tonight. Meanwhile high pressure over the Ohio Valley will sink
south towards the Gulf Coast. A prolonged period of southwest flow
along with an upper level ridge building across the eastern United
States will lead to a gradual warming trend into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
.Update...minor changes to clear clouds slightly this
afternoon. Otherwise...the forecast looks right on track.

.Previous discussion...Temperatures have been warming from the
southwest and as expected, wind chills have improved at most
locations. Despite this, conditions remain cold and wind chills
will be below zero for most of the morning hours. Only change to
the forecast with the early morning update was minor
adjustments to clouds and added a chance of flurries across most
of NE Ohio this morning.

Previous discussion...
Several sites saw wind chill values dip below -10 overnight but
these conditions have been variable based on cloud cover,
temperatures, and wind speed. Winds are generally light (3-8 mph)
with high pressure over the Ohio Valley and winds may drop off
a little more as we head towards dawn. Wind chills will improve
into the -5 to -10 degree range towards dawn and will just
highlight the cold conditions with an SPS instead of any
advisories.

Light snow/flurries are possible this morning along the
northeast lakeshore as a weak surface trough slides across the
eastern half of the lake. Little more than a dusting possible in
NW PA drier air seen on satellite imagery across SE Michigan
overspreads the lake and snow showers come to an end. Mostly
cloudy skies this morning will experience variable cloud
conditions later today as moisture off Lake Michigan shifts east
this afternoon. After a cool start to the day, went with a
blend of MAV/MET guidance for highs today, generally in the
lower 20s west to upper teens east. Fortunately southwest winds
will increase this evening and lows will only drop back into the
lower teens. Lots of sun and increasing warm advection on
Thursday will push temperatures towards the 30 degree mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The multi-day stretch of fair weather will continue through the end
of the week. Expansive high pressure will be centered over the Gulf
Coast states Thursday shifting east through Saturday. One shortwave
dives southeast across the lakes Thursday brushing the area. For
several runs now this has passed dry. A significant shortwave moves
ashore on the west coast Friday and traverses the country over the
weekend. This will take low pressure from the southern Plains and
direct it toward the central Great Lakes. Warmth and moisture will
increase a little each day. Isentropic lift increases enough that a
few sprinkles/light rain may break out as early as Saturday night.
Have continued the chance mention of rain for the second half of the
weekend. By Sunday high temperatures will be in the mid/upper 40s,
possibly flirting with 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus will be around the low that will track across the central
lakes for the first part of the week. It is progged to take a cold
front across the area on Monday. Have continued the likely precip
mention, not going higher just yet with the ECMWF running a bit
slower. Have kept temperatures in the 40s/near 50 Monday, but will
depend on frontal timing. Closer to normal for Tuesday. With
complete snow melt occurring again and rain, we may face additional
ice jam issues depending on the amount of rain Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
IFR ceilings with patchy MVFR visibilities have expanded across
most of northern Ohio. Flurries/light snow showers remain
possible across NE Ohio/NW PA but no accumulation expected. Low
clouds will gradually clear from west to east through midday,
with a VFR deck off Lake Michigan arriving late morning through
the early afternoon. Low clouds should clear out of all areas by
tonight. Winds will be out of the southwest near 10 knots with
gusts to 20+ knots at ERI.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will generally remain at or below 10 kts
through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon surface high
pressure will strengthen over AR with deep surface low pressure
north into Canada resulting in an increase in southwest winds. Winds
will remain between 15 and just over 20 kts through at least
Saturday morning as surface pressure gradient remain tight across
the region. Winds will begin to subside Saturday morning and become
more southerly by Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Riley/KEC
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Oudeman


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