Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 210838
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
438 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017
Canadian high pressure will build SE across the Great Lakes today
and remain in place through the weekend. A low pressure system
will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday. A cold front will
sag into the Central Lakes Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front is near a Mt Vernon to Ashtabula line with a few
lingering showers just ahead of the front. Both the front and the
showers will be SE of the forecast area by daybreak. After that a
large area of Canadian high pressure...now centered over The
Northern Plains...will push SE over the lakes ushering in much
cooler conditions. Temps will have a hard time rising above the
50s today. In fact dew points have already dropped in the 30s
across Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Will see some sun today
but not alot as lake effect clouds shroud most of the Great Lakes.
By this evening the 850mb temps will plunge to -2c over the
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. Models continue to track
a low pressure system across the Ohio valley Saturday. Track of the
low continues to be south of the Ohio river. In fact todays track
again a little further south than YDY. So lowered the pops across
the southern counties once again. The temps on Saturday night
could well dip into the upper 30s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still some disagreement on the timing and strength of the features
for the middle and latter portion of next week as the models
struggle to eject the closed low along the east coast with a fast
flow aloft over the western and middle of the country. Many of the
models continue to drive a weakening front over the ridge across the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. I suspect that the ridge may be tougher
than given credit for but given 6 days out it is certainly
reasonable to mention a low pop chance for showers.
We should be building the ridge aloft Thursday into Friday with
a panhandle hook developing ahead of the next southwestern
short wave. Some of the guidance posts QPF in our area, perhaps
from warm advection or another weakening cold front from the
west (from the CMC and ECMWF) or perhaps the old frontal is
still strung out in the area. In any case, will keep a small pop
in the forecast as suggested by guidance until we can get a
better trend but the real story will likely be the warming
temps. Highs by the end of the week seemingly will warm well
into the 70s.
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A few more showers with MVFR vsby and ceilings will likely
continue to develop along the cold front early this morning but
should be east of the forecast area by 09Z. Cannot rule out
thunder but the odds at any site are low and will leave it out
of the forecast. There is a swath of clearing behind the front
but it will rapidly close as stratocumulus spreads in from the
west. Ceilings will lower to MVFR this morning and prevail into
the afternoon. Given the time of day and the slightly drier air,
we should be able to improve the ceilings to VFR (BKN035) this
afternoon. West winds will become gusty (022-025 kts) today,
then diminish this evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday.
The cold front will be east of lake Erie this morning and the west
wind will pick up today, probably just enough for 4 foot waves on
the east half of the lake. Will issue a small craft advisory from
mid morning through early evening.
A weak secondary cold front seems to drop across the lake this
evening. This should veer the winds more from the north tonight into
the weekend. Seems as though wind speeds and waves should stay just
below small craft criteria but the lake will probably remain choppy
through the weekend and early next week, especially the western
half of the lake.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
evening for LEZ147>149.