Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181022
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. DID DRAW THESE INTO THE GRIDS BUT NOT QUITE FAST
ENOUGH AS THEY HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS EAST THIS MORNING IN THE UPDATE. BELIEVE SOME OF THIS IS
STILL THIN SO EXPECT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MOST
GROUPS EAST HAVE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE MORNING WITH THE TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BEFORE.  NO OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...  WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MICHIGAN INTO NWRN OHIO AND
INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WERE REACHING THE
GROUND AT SBN AND HAI. LIMITED FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE SYSTEM
AND AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE POPS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN ONTARIO...NOSING SOUTH INTO OHIO. STILL...THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0
TO -1C NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NERN LAKESHORE TO REMAIN HELD TO THE UPPER 40 OR NEAR
50 WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE FULL SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN FRIDAY HIGHS. WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS +8 TO +10C. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKESHORE AREAS TO MODERATE AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY TO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL
ALSO BRING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST TWO THIRDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
LI`S BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT DROP AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH GOOD
UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH MODELS HINT AT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT THE TREND FOR BOTH IS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO MINUS 3 TO
5C DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS TREND IS FOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FASTER WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND USE THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.   WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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