Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...SO ADDED CHANCE OF SPRINKLE FOR EVENING FORECAST. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL GET
SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BACKSIDE OF SHORT WAVE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND PORTAGE COUNTY MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY SEE
A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU 18Z FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WILL PROBABLY ACT TO KEEP PATCHY HIGHER
BASED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SE.
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LEFT BEHIND FOR AT LEAST
SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY NOON ON FRI. LIGHT W TO NW WINDS WILL BACK TO
SW TO W INTO TONIGHT THEN VEER BACK TO NW FRI MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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