Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261542
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM
CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO ERIE COUNTY PA. WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE THESE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER INLAND AS THE NEXT TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES LATE IN THE DAY WE MAY
ONCE AGAIN SEE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OFF OF THE
LAKE.

IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FURTHER INLAND WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE TYPICAL LAKE
EFFECT LOCATIONS THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS
WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA SO HAVE ONLY PLACED
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA
THAT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH GOOD UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE FOR TUE. THE ONGOING FORECAST OF CHC POPS ON SUN..TAPERING
TO SLGT CHC FOR MON AND LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE STILL SEEMS
IN LINE. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON SUN WARMING EACH DAY
TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHRA
WILL BE SCT AROUND THE SNOWBELT WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS AT TIMES
EARLY THIS MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING ON...THE SHRA SHOULD BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA
DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THRU NOON WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING...CIGS HAVE
A CHANCE OF SCATTERING OUT AT FDY AND TOL AROUND SUNSET BUT LATEST
DATA TRENDING TO KEEP CIGS IN PLACE. MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE CIGS ALSO LIKELY TO LOWER TO
MVFR.

W TO NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME
BECOMING EVEN LIGHTER WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THE WEEKEND IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE NORTH. WAVES EAST OF
CLEVELAND MAY MARGINALLY INCREASE INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A
WHILE TODAY.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WINDS INTO FRI.
A DISSIPATING LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO INDIANA ON SUN WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW FOR SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS


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