Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINA`S ON
MONDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY AND
THEN MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SNOWFALL EVENT ONGOING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. EVENING REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES COMMON.
COULD VERY WELL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES STILL ON TARGET. NO STRONG EVIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD 6 INCHES...AND THEREFORE NO UPGRADE. LIMITED
VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SCOOTS EAST...HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO LITTLE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CLE METRO AREA AND
EVEN LESS FOR TOLEDO AND NW PA. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TOO WITH
NEAR 20 WHERE IT SNOWS TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A TROF WILL
EXTEND FROM THE INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SOME
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA INTO TUESDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE THAT HIGH. A TROF/FRONT WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD NW OH ON TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS A
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AWAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE A
THREAT FOR SOME SNOW. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER ALBERTA.  THIS LOW WILL TAKE AN UNORTHODOX PATH AND TRACK SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...INTENSIFY...AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN OHIO BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BRING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COULD
POSSIBLY START OUT AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY AND
THEN RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND IN ITS WAKE
WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT DURING THE DAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN.  SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD IFR STILL ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE STILL VFR AT KTOL AND KERI. LOW WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY EAST REACHING WV BY 12Z. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GET PULLED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS STILL SUGGESTING HOWEVER THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE INTO NWRN PA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN NWRN PA.
NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD CONTINUE CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY VFR AT KTOL AND IMPROVING FROM IFR TO VFR IN KFDY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NO STRONG WINDS TO
PRODUCE GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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