Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 141705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHES OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SHRINKING BUT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE INVERSION IS
BEING TRAPPED AND STRATIFYING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 30. THINK
WE CAN GET BY WITH "PARTLY SUNNY" ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE FOR
"MOSTLY CLOUDY". TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN THE
NOON READINGS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. STRAOCU WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AFTER SUNSET. CIGS LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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