Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290600
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WINDS STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NW DO
NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE NEARLY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER AND HELD IT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST. WILL COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CLOUDS LOOKING
MORE DIURNAL ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS WELL. THROUGH THE EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME
BREAKUP CENTRAL AND WEST ALTHOUGH SE OF THE LAKE ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA CLOUDS COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BREAK. GUIDANCE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S EAST INLAND. BOTH THE
MAV ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL REMAIN CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING WEST BY 1 TO 2 HUNDRED KILOMETERS OR SO
(IN QUEBEC) TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
COOL...FAIRLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL FORCING AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH SHORT
WAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. TAPERED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CAMPED OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT
THEN THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIFT A
LITTLE NNE FOR SUN AND MON TO LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA SOME.
TEMPS WILL CONSISTENTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE POCKET OF COOL
AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO WILL
GENERALLY RUN BELOW GFS MOS HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO NW PA OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS NW OHIO ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION SO ONLY ADDED SHRA TO TOL...WITH JUST VCSH AT THE OTHER
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH 10Z...BACKING TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THRU TUE MORNING. A TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE LAKE SHOULD BACK THE FLOW TO WSW TUE THEN TURN
BACK WEST OR WNW WED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER OHIO LATE WED THRU THU AND TEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
SAT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS






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