Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 111710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE ERIE. GOOD INSULATION
WILL SUPPORT SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS
WARMING ABOUT 2C FROM YESTERDAY. WENT WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH ARE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WEST COAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A FAIRLY COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CHURNS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LARGER
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WORKING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. SLOWED DOWN CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY EVEN IN NW OHIO TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP IN NW OHIO AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES
BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT ON FUTURE
FORECASTS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THIS DOES STILL RESULT IN A
GOOD PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WARRANTS 40-60 PERCENT POPS...WITH BETTER CHANCES AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT SLOWLY STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ON SUNDAY
WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERHEAD GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE
WHOLE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL DEPEND UPON EVOLUTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S GIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR A LATER START TO
CONVECTION COULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED BACK
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT RESIDES AT THIS POINT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO.
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE. HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BE
STARTING TO DROP BACK OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW DESCENDING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AND ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AT 12Z TUESDAY.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WILL THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT.  HARD FOR ME TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE WON`T BE AT LEAST A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF TO THE NORTH.  WILL TRY FOR
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO RECONSIDER IF THE UPPER LOW LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND JUST A TAD WARMER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4000-5000 FOOT CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXCEPT NEAR THE
LAKESHORE WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

AFTER LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO NW OHIO ON SATURDAY IS
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE AND NOT ANTICIPATING NEEDING
ANY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD.  NE TO E FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGES SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON MONDAY.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  A STRONGER FRONT WILL
FOLLOW EARLY TUESDAY.  THE WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  SPEEDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15
KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA






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