Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201621
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1221 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain over the Great Lakes through
tonight, as a cold front settles south into the area by Friday
morning. High pressure will build east across the area Wedneday
and Wednesday night, with the front lifting back north through
the area by Thursday. The front will again push south Friday into
the Ohio valley by Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not too many changes with this forecast update. A nice diurnal
cumulus field has developed over northeast Ohio and northwest
PA. A couple spotty showers appeared with some of the more
robust cumulus clouds but has remained almost entirely east of
our NW PA counties. Thinking that the area will stay dry until
the early evening hours when the system upstream will begin to
impact the area, so have removed any precipitation mention for
this afternoon. Otherwise, made minor adjustments to cloud cover
based on satellite trends.

Previous discussion...
Fairly substantial changes to pops and weather through the day
today vs. previous forecast. Model trends have been downplaying
precip chances across the area through the daytime, slowing
down the arrival of the surface front and splitting the forcing
between a more potent northern stream wave remaining north of
the area and a weaker disturbance moving into the area after
00Z. Kept some slight chance/low chance pops across NW PA
through the morning, but most of the area remains dry through at
least 21Z. Kept pops in the low chance/slight chance range for
tonight, with a much slower pops trend than previously forecast.
Kept temps close to previous forecast for today and tonight,
with mid/upper 70s expected for highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will linger over the region Wednesday, with a
remnant cold front washing out through the day. A large area of
high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes/Ohio valley
through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Kept some low chance
AM/slight chance PM pops south along the dissipating boundary,
otherwise most areas will see fairly dry conditions. Dry
conditions will persist into Wednesday night as the ridge axis
shifts east. A warm front will lift north through the area
Thursday, with temperatures returning to the mid/upper 80s for
highs. Precip chances will increase during the day Thursday and
into Thursday night, but the greatest chances will be north of
the area. The boundary will return south as a cold front Friday
and Friday night, with increased return flow and decent moisture
flux into the Ohio valley aided by potential tropical storm
remnants. Decent forcing/deformation along the front warrants
continued likely pops Friday, dropping to chance Friday night.
Temperatures will return to near normal by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will have pushed south of the area on Saturday with
temperatures near normal. Precipitation is generally expected to be
south of the area as a low pressure system slides northeast along
boundary across the Ohio Valley but will hold onto a slight
chance(20 pop) of thunderstorms. Saturday night should be dry
between systems with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning
on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and deepening trough aloft.
Temperatures will dip below normal into the lower 70s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A brief window of MVFR clouds possible at ERI through 14Z before
scattering out today. Otherwise VFR conditions expected all
sites through at least this afternoon with a low chance of a
shower ahead of a cold front this evening. A brief reduction to
visibility possible with any showers that develop. Included a
couple hour window of showers in the vicinity for NW Ohio sites but
given low probabilities did not include at terminals farther
east. Sct-bkn clouds near 5-7K are expected along the front.
Southwest winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to 20
knots.

OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Wednesday and Thursday in
showers/thunderstorms. Increasing chances of non-VFR on Friday
as coverage of thunderstorms increases ahead of a front.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds are starting off the day near 20 knots on the central
portion of Lake Erie. This peak area of winds near 20 knots will
shift east across the lake today with waves building to 3 to 5 feet
in the nearshore waters. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory and a
Beach Hazards Statement for a high risk of rip currents through 4 pm
this afternoon. Will need to monitor conditions in the Pennsylvania
waters this afternoon and could possibly have to extend a couple
more hours if winds do not start to drop off by 4 PM. Winds become a
little more southwesterly by late afternoon ahead of an approaching
trough which should push the higher waves out into the open waters.

High pressure will build over the lake on Wednesday with improving
marine conditions. The high shifts to the east coast on Thursday and
we see winds develop out of the southwest ahead of a cold front that
will push south across the lake Friday evening. The flow shifts to
the northwest behind the front but at this time it appears winds
will peak in the 10 to 15 knot range so not expecting to need a
Small Craft Advisory heading into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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