Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 200942
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
542 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
High pressure over the area will move off to the east today. A cold
front will move southeast through the region tonight and be followed
by an arctic cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure will drop southeast from the Canadian Plains moving across
the area Thursday then a low will move northeast into Ohio on the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A band of mostly rain will push se across most of the cwa this
morning. There may be pockets of graupel with the rain. Also...there
may be a few spots where temps don`t rise quick enough as the precip
starts so that there could try and be a brief period of fzra.
However...temps aloft are relatively warm for this type of situation
so the warm raindrops will likely prevent ice formation upon contact
with the surface.
The morning batch of precip south mostly push sse out of the cwa by
the end of the morning. An upper level s/w moving toward the area
will induce a surface wave to develop along the cold front drifting
se into the area. Fairly widespread shra and some tsra will develop
west to east across the area this afternoon into evening then get
pushed off to the se tonight as the wave and front move off in that
direction due to the nwly upper flow. QPF should range from a few
tenths in the far ne to around a half an inch in the west although
some locally heavier convective cells could produce an inch in a few
Highs today should end up mostly in a 45 to 50 range then drop into
mostly a 32 to 36 range by daybreak Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another lobe of the polar vortex will drop se into Maine Tue thru
Wed pushing arctic air south into the area Tue night and Wed.
Moisture Tue into early Tue night may be just high enough for a few
shra to occur as the frontal boundary pushes south across the
region. As the cold air moves in by late Tue night and Wed a few
snow showers could develop in the snowbelt but this is not expected
to amount to much since the airmass is fairly dry and high pressure
starts to quickly build in from the nw.
Highs on Wed should only range from about 25 far ne to 35 sw. Wed
night will be a cold night with lows from 10 to 15 inland ne to the
lower 20s sw.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure over the area on Thursday will shift to the Mid-
Atlantic on Friday. After a cool start to the day, periods of sun
accompanied by increasing mid and high cloud should allow for
temperatures to recover to near normal highs. A warm front
accompanied by scattered showers will lift north across the area
Thursday night. Models have been focusing best chances of
precipitation across northern portions of the area before departing
to the northeast on Friday as the ridge builds aloft. Good mixing in
the warm sector on Friday afternoon will support highs ranging from
the mid 50s(east) to low 60s(west).
Forecast confidence decreases into next weekend as we watch how
models handle a closed upper level low approaching from the Plains.
Long range models exhibiting a fair amount of spread with the
surface and upper low track which will impact timing/coverage of
precipitation along with temperatures. The 00Z Canadian model seems
to offer a reasonable compromise at this time and have leaned the
forecast in that direction. All models indicate Periods of rain can
be expected over the weekend with temperatures trending cooler late
Saturday into Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary over Lake Erie is
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Stratocu deck is making good progress eroding from west to east
and have tried to time into the eastern terminals. More gradual
clearing is also occurring from the northeast and low clouds
could clear out of ERI at any time. High clouds will continue to
thicken as low clouds clear which should prevent visibilities
from dropping off too much, but did include a brief window of
MVFR conditions at MFD/CAK/YNG prior to 12Z. We are also
watching an area of convection that has developed across
southwest Michigan. This is expected to take a southeast
trajectory towards the better moisture advection and could
reach TOL/FDY as early as 10Z. Expect thunder to tend to
decrease in coverage overnight as it encounters the drier air so
only brought showers in with this first round. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west
with a warm front after 18Z with best chances for thunder at
FDY/MFD before shifting southward. Have include a 3-6 hour
window of rain at all terminals with ceilings dropping from VFR
at the onset to IFR as a cold front sinks back south. Light
southerly winds will shift to the east and eventually
north/northeast as a weak wave slides across Ohio into Monday
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns Monday night then again on Tuesday
night into Wednesday across NE Ohio/NW PA.
Fairly light wind and wave conditions will continue on Lake Erie
through Tuesday. Southerly winds today will back to the east this
evening and north tonight as a wave of low pressure slides across
the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push south across the lake
Tuesday night ahead of strong high pressure building southeast out
of Canada. Northerly winds will increase to near 20 knots for a
window of time behind the front and a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed given the onshore flow. Conditions will quickly
improve on Wednesday and remain good on Thursday.