Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201957
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN NE GEAUGA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED INLAND AND INTERACTED WITH THE
BETTER CU FIELD SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAKE BREEZE APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING AND EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE IN MAHONING AND
CRAWFORD PA. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION ALL SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR INCREASING ABOVE 650MB. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS
CREEPING UP TOWARDS 1000 J/KG BUT PARCELS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURPASS
THAT LEVEL SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL SUPPORT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKER ON
THE EXTREME EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 60 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TO NE OHIO WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD LESS TIME TO MIX OUT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP LOWERING TO NEAR 800MB ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP US DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SO
WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BENEATH A SCT CU
FIELD. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF
YET ON MONDAY BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SUN AND
A MODERATING AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S. WARM
ADVECTION DOES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARDS THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90(WEST). WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S IN NW OHIO ON TUESDAY.

ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL APPROACH NW OHIO TOWARDS 12Z WED THEN PUSH SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PUSHES DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECTING AT LEAST
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH MOIST AIRMASS...SO RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY MOST AREAS. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED GIVEN
THE FASTER TREND WITH THE FRONT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIR
SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH TO REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL MOVE EAST
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY TO START THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH
SOME QUESTION KEPT THE MENTION IN THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TRENDS GET BETTER ESTABLISHED THE POPS WILL
BE ABLE TO BE ADJUSTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LAKE
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND A LITTLE
UNSTABLE. AN UPPER TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP. MAINLY FROM CLE EAST. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD NOT
MENTIONING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE AT ERI AND YNG. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR AND
THEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE AIRMASS IS NOT
MIXING OUT ALOT...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS DENSE
AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL PLENTY OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD NOT DEVELOP AS QUICKLY AS IT DID
EARLY THIS AM. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM AND
IT COULD GO BROKEN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE AREA THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE LAKE AND ONSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT
THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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