Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 170729
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today. A
cold front will move southeast into central ohio wednesday and stall
through thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves along the
front. The front will proceed off to the southeast thursday night
then high pressure will push up the ohio valley friday into saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
The trough crossing the area should push off to the east today
leaving a warm front just north of lake erie by this evening. As the
cwa breaks into the warm sector...the threat for shra/tsra will
decrease from sw to ne while unseasonally warm air spreads over the
area. Clouds should decrease this afternoon but will slow down this
decrease some more. Highs should end up from the mid to upper 70s in
the east to the low to maybe mid 80s in the west which will be
around the record high of 83 in toledo.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A band of decent moisture around 850 mb moves ese into the area by
the end of tonight in association with an increasing low level jet.
A few sprinkles could occur from this but not expecting measurable
A cold front will move into the area late tue/tue night then tend to
stall somewhere near the se part of the cwa as the upper level
trough digs west of the area. A wave of low pressure is expected to
develop and move along the front near or over the cwa. Thus the
threat for rain should stay present wed thru thu.
Near record high temps tue will cool some for wed due to the clouds
and rain and more so for thu.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Given the cold advection and the trough aloft, would rather be
pessimistic on Friday and keep a chance of rain with the highest
pops 50-60 percent across northeast OH and northwest PA, at least in
the morning. Another short wave is progged to drop through the
trough on Saturday and will keep at least a small chance of showers
in the forecast area with the best chance in the snowbelt. Cannot
rule out showers in the snowbelt even into Sunday as one last short
wave is possible along with 850 mb temperatures around 4C or lower.
Forecast temperatures will be at or below most of the guidance given
the trough aloft and the likelihood of clouds and the chance of
showers. Highs in the 50s each day with lows generally in the lower
and mid 40s.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The majority of showers will move east of the area by daybreak.
Cannot rule out a lingering shower at KERI through the morning
hours but there is a lessening chance as the short wave moves
east. Patchy MVFR fog/mist likely early this morning but the
increasing south wind should minimize the chance for any
significant fog before daybreak. A gusty south wind will develop
during the day Monday as we break back into the warm
sector. MVFR ceilings likely in some areas of extreme NE OH/NW PA
during the morning but ceilings will rise and clear from
southwest to northeast today as subsidence increases.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wed morning. Non-VFR
likely Thursday into Friday.
Winds on Lake Erie are in a lull this morning but the south flow
will pick back up today and especially tonight into Tuesday ahead of
an approaching cold front. A small craft advisory may be needed by
Tuesday morning. Winds will likely decrease steadily during the
afternoon and evening Tuesday as the wind begins to veer more from
the north. Lighter winds will prevail until the northeast flow picks
up on Thursday. A small craft advisory may be needed later Thursday
into Friday as a cold northerly flow develops.