Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
704 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

MONITORING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF DETROIT. MODELS
SHOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING S INTO THE TOL AREA
AROUND 03Z...THEN WEAKENING. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...THEN CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONLY
CONVECTION FIRING RIGHT NOW IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACROSS
FORECAST AREA CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. WHILE ON THE OTHER
HAND 700MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 10C SO WELL CAPED AND ALSO A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE AT 300MB. WEAK LAKE BREEZE EAST OF CLE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE CAPE THIS EVENING. FOR THE FORECAST CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND THE ERIE LAKESHORE WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF THE REST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
GOING THERE IN THE MORNING.   FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRY FORECAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS SUMMER MOST CERTAINLY HAS ARRIVED.  TEMPS GRADUALLY
RISE INTO THE UPPER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BUSIEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.  STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SO
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.  IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE
JUST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER AND
DOMINATE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE LEFT A
SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KERI LATER THIS EVENING BUT
EVEN AT THOSE SPOTS THE THREAT IS MINIMAL. STARTING TO SEE SOME
CUMULUS POP AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. WILL SEE CIGS
MOST AREAS BY 00Z. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT FLIPPING THE WIND TO THE N OR NW FROM THE SW. AS
THIS HAPPENS WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. IF THE CIGS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SKIES FINALLY CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FLIP THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH.
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS SO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE START OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE FLOW LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.  THE WINDS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WITH IT.  WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA



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