Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200750
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE TEMPS
WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL NOT BE AS FAST BRINGING
RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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