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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUR FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST NEAR THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
FEW SHOWERS COMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OHIO THAT
COULD SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM AROUND MARION TO MOUNT VERNON EARLY
THIS MORNING.

EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE...MOSTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE OVER RUNNING SYNOPTIC CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES CLIPPING EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND AREAS EAST OF
PAINESVILLE. TO THE SOUTH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR
COLUMBUS.

THE ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SPRINKLES
NEAR ERIE WILL THIN AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OLD UPPER
LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NOT SURE HOW ACTIVE THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. WILL
FORECAST RELATIVELY LOW POP...GENERALLY 10-35 PERCENT WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY (POP LESS THAN 15 PERCENT)
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
SHOULD KEEP THINGS STABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER AT INLAND LOCATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND IS NOT OFF
THE WATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE WEEK
WE WILL SEE INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S. WITH ENOUGH SUN AND LACK OF SHOWERS COULD EVEN SEE UPPER 80S IN
A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY AS
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW OUT. AT THIS TIME CONTINUING A GENERALLY DRY TREND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT KEPT 30 POPS OVER NW PA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN IMPULSE ALOFT WAS CAUSE SOME VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW PA
AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS AM...THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY
DAYBREAK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STILL WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO. AT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD IS FAIRLY
HIGH AND WITH SOME MID CLOUDS NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG AS LAST
NIGHT. SOME 3SM IS POSSIBLE AT FAVORED LOCATIONS...WITH QUICK DISSIPATION.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS MOIST AT MID LEVELS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TODAY AND THAT WILL HELP
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE
LAKESHORE...WILL KEEP TOL, CLE AND ERI DRY. SOME QUESTION AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE HRRR HAS SOME
SHOWERS AT 14Z NEAR FDY...THIS SEEMS TOO HIGH. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND DARK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TRICKY LAKE FORECAST WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EARLY
THIS MORNING THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE WEST END FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE LAKE
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA