Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF THE LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW INTO WRN OHIO WITH WINDS AT LIMA
260 WHILE MFD AND MNN ARE FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE TO
ZZV WITH ANOTHER AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NERN
INDIANA ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO MOVE THESE TO AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN
GRAPHICS WITH THE FIRST BAND AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA INTO AFTERNOON WITH CAT POPS. ALSO ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREA
OF RAIN TO ROTATE BACK ACROSS NWRN OHIO AND THE PULL NE. ALSO MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WELL.

ORIGINAL...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
WILL BE EXISTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL RIDE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS OHIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NW
OHIO...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG JET AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NW PA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THERE IS A 8 TO 10
HOUR PERIOD STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW.
MUCH OF THIS COULD BE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NW PA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL LIKELY
BE ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING CHICAGO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR TO
START THE DAY BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERY
LOW IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TOL FOR A WINDOW OF TIME
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
ON WED AND THU IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 25-30 KNOT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KEC





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