Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 052015
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY MORNING. THICKER CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO
SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NW OHIO. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO ARRIVE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN OUR SE TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60
DEGREES MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA ON
MONDAY MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE WEST. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING WHILE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR WEST AS AN ARC FROM ABOUT MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER HEATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD. DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
EVENING...MAINLY NW PA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 80S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EAST AND TRAVERSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE
ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST BRINGS LIKELY POPS
INTO NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
NAM WOULD ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK
NORTH. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU MORNING THE MODELS
MORE OR LESS AGREE A LOW WILL FORM SW OF OHIO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
EC DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WASHES OUT
THE LOW OVER NW OHIO. THIS LOW IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC AS
WELL. NONETHELESS THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF ON ANY GIVEN SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WHEN I DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SFC WAVE
FORMATION. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MORE OF CHALLENGE IN THAT IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTIAL
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AGAIN...THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. BY SAT MORNING THE GFS HAS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US THAT NUDGES THE BOUNDARY INTO MI BY SAT
NIGHT. THE EC ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CMC IS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS AND SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SW PA AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 30 HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
CAK...YNG...AND MFD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MON MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE OVER WV. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE
EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AT YNG...BUT VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT CAK AND CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS LE ON MON. MON
NIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATE
SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



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