Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250543
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southwest Ohio will move slowly northeast into New
England by Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area
Friday night then shift east to allow low pressure to move northeast
into the area by Sunday that will then hang around into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...No big changes.

Original...Low pressure over sw Oh will drift slowly ne tonight
which should help a band of shra and possible tsra to spread ne
across the cwa followed by a decrease in activity over all but
the far ne by the end of the night. A few areas could see
locally heavy rain where some of the stronger convection occurs,
but in general rainfall amounts should range from a quarter to
three quarters of an inch.

After highs today mainly in the 60s, low should only fall into the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The slow moving low will continue to produce fairly widespread shra
and possible tsra Thu into Thu night that should finally shift into
mainly the east half for Fri as the low shifts into New England.
Even though more sunshine is expected for Fri, cooler air will be
brought se into the area so temps both Thu and Fri will be below
normal, especially in the ne on Fri.

Weak high pressure will work across the area late Fri which should
provide a brief period of dry wx. However, moisture and possible
rain from the next system will likely start to push into the area
Fri night and continue on and off thru Sat night. However, models
keep making adjustments so confidence in timing of precip low for
the Fri night thru Sat night period but fairly high confidence that
rain will occur at some point.

As rains continue to occur, the threat for flooding will likely
increase Thu thru the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much confidence on the timing of the cold front on Sunday. With
the trough aloft well to the west, we could see a prefrontal trough
or multiple troughs until the front clears the area (which could
take until Sunday night). Will have somewhat higher pops across the
eastern half of the forecast area, generally from about I-71 east.
Will include a mention of thunder. The air mass is warm and will
stick close to guidance. If it were to be rainy, then temperatures
could be suppressed but if there are sunny breaks, temps should warm
well into the 70s, perhaps even around 80.

A decent trough is progged to linger the first half of next week and
several short waves are forecast to move through the trough. The
first on Monday is stronger on the GFS versus the ECMWF. The CMC
maintains more of a closed low over the Great Lakes. Given the
differences in the models and the troughy pattern, will forecast a
generic chance of showers with temps a bit cooler on Monday and the
same for Tuesday. By Tuesday, temperatures should be below normal.

The GFS drops another wave through the trough on Wednesday while the
ECMWF begins to flatten the trough with rising heights. The forecast
will continue with a small chance of showers and temperatures below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Slow moving system spiraling across Ohio will reach western NY
by 06Z FRI. For the remainder of the overnight expect variable
ceilings...with the most predominate category MVFR. There will
be some holes of VFR, but they will be relatively short
lived...with the exception of the the east lakeshore. IFR seems
to be pushing northwest out of the area, but TOL still on the
fringes. Some indication that MFD will have a period of IFR
return before morning. Otherwise showers will continue off and
on. Daytime Thursday expect some improvement going into midday,
but as the low gets east of the area and the winds come around
expect IFR ceilings to become more widespread for Thursday
evening. Winds to start off east and northeast shifting to the
west-northwest by 06Z Fri.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lingering across northeast OH/nw PA into
Friday morning. Areas of non-VFR possible at times over the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure developing in the lower Ohio Valley will be responsible
for an increasing east northeast fetch/gradient on Lake Erie through
the first half of tonight. Current thinking is that the wind and
waves may stay just below small craft advisory criteria on the west
half of the lake this evening but it will certainly get choppy. High
lake levels will also lead to high water levels on the western basin
but we will probably stay just below the Lakeshore Flood Warning
criteria.

Some uncertainty on where the surface low will be tracking on
Thursday. Most of the computer guidance would suggest the surface
low will end of near Lake Erie, perhaps near Sandusky or Cleveland,
but with the uncertainty, the wind direction forecast should be used
with caution on Thursday. Winds speeds should be light by Thursday
morning in the vicinity of the low and for most of Lake Erie though.

The low should move east of the lake Thursday night and the flow
will come around from the west and then northwest. The WNW flow will
likely back to southwest by the weekend. The next cold front is
likely on Sunday. South winds ahead of the front will become
westerly behind the front by Sunday night. Thunderstorms may
accompany the front on Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/TK
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik


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