Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181706
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
106 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front over Indiana will move east over the local area
and become stationary by this evening. The front will push to
the south Tuesday as high pressure begins to build back over the
region from the north. The high will then dominate the weather
the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers continue across the western County Warning
Area. Cant completely rule out a thunderstorms so kept the
mention in the forecast. Otherwise filtered sunshine for most
locations with highs int he 80s east, around 80 west.

Previous discussion...
Lot`s of questions today about when and where any precip will
develop today. Regional radar currently shows a few showers over
lower MI and far western OH. This activity has been dissipating
and making little eastward progress overnight. The front
responsible for this activity remains over IN and is expected to
reach the area later today. The lower atmosphere will continue
to moisten in advance of the front. Some showers are expected to
develop with coverage of no more than 20 or 30 percent. Best
chances will be over the west end of the area. The models
continue to show some precip forming at the opposite end of the
area as well. This is most likely in response to a lake boundary
expected to develop later today. Will need small chances for
this activity as well. The central portion of the area should
remain dry today. Clouds will overspread the area this morning
and this should keep temps a tad cooler than they were on
Sunday. With the loss of daytime heating any remaining showers
should dissipate after 00z leaving the evening mainly dry. More
showers are expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday as
high pressure begins to push the stalled front off to the south.
This time the entire area will see small precip chances.
Again...no more than 20 to 30 percent coverage is expected with
best chances again at the southwest end of the area. As far as
thunder goes...it appears best chances will be this afternoon in
the west. Lack of strong forcing and upper support should keep
the thunder from being more than isolated.

Persistence appears the way to go for temps. See no reason why
we won`t again make 80 degrees again most areas on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Strong upper level ridge builds over the area as Jose meanders
up East coast. Instability during the afternoon hours but area
will be well capped with 700 mb temps hovering around 10c.
Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Upper level ridge
holds fast. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A few showers have persisted across the west but are struggling
to move eastward. There was some patchy IFR ceilings in the
vicinity of the showers across NW Ohio. This may remain possible
but think most locations that see rain will briefly see some
MVFR ceilings. Will keep any vicinity showers across the western
half of the northern Ohio and will monitor the lake breeze
boundary for development.

Th weakening frontal boundary will likely be bridged by high
pressure with light north to northeast winds developing by
evening at most locations. Winds should become light and
variable shortly after sunset.

Morning fog is possible but the increase in cloud cover should
limit the coverage. So at this point we will not mention any fog
in the TAF`s.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Wednesday through Friday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak southerly flow will turn to the Northeast later today as a weak
cold front moves across the lake.   Winds will remain below small
craft advisory conditions through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.