Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RAIN HAS FILLED IN TO OUR WEST AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE CWA.
POINTS EAST OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S WITH DEWOINTS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15. THIS MAY IMPEDE RAIN AT FIRST
DUE TO EVAPORATION BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MAKE IT DOWN AND THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW OR COOL TEMPS BACK TO
FREEZING.

ORIGINAL...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING BUT
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
10...AM THINKING WE GET MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST
AND MAY RISE ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. DID BRING IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
ZR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WELL AND MAY HAVE TO HOIST ADVISORIES THERE
AS WELL BUT FOR NOW PREFER A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE. ZR ASIDE...WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST TODAY AS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
IN A MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LUL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT THEN
DROPPING FAST TO AROUND 1500-2000FT. 2000FT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A
FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND
10Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-16Z AT KCAK/KMFD/ AND KYNG (AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECT -FZDZ AT CLE OR ERI). EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR ERI
WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND WINDS ALOFT NOT AS
STRONG LATER IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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