Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
759 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO OHIO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP NEAR LAKE ERIE AND STAYS
IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OHIO.
WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD BE
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SO EXPECT THUNDER TO OCCUR THERE. THE
FAR SE COULD EVEN HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND HEATING OCCUR. THE DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME THUNDER IN OTHER AREAS. SINCE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE SE HALF WOULD EXPECT THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL TO BE THERE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING IN THE NORTH AND THATS WHERE
THE MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIER RAIN. HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL SO FAR
STRETCHES FROM FDY/MNN AREA NE THRU SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF CLE INTO
CRAWFORD CO PA. BASED ON QPE AND QPF WILL GO FOR FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
BUT FAR SOUTH AND SE CO`S AND HOPE CONVECTION IN THE SE IS LIGHT
ENOUGH AND DOESN`T SET UP A TRAINING PATTERN.

TEMPS TODAY TO SHOW A GOOD RANGE WITH HIGHS STUCK FROM 55 TO 60 NEAR
THE LAKESHORE AS THE NORTH WINDS COMES IN OFF THE COOLER LAKE TO THE
MID TO MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH WON`T SEE THE
NORTH WIND UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW
TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE THRU THE
DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHRA TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THRU 06Z MON THEN LIGHT
SCT SHRA WILL LINGER ON MON IN THE EAST BUT SHOULD BE DONE BY LATE
MON EVE. NOT SURE WHY THE NAM MOS POPS INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT AT
ERI UNLESS THE MODEL THINKS SOME DZ MAY DEVELOP LATE. DUE TO THE
HANGING BACK OF THE MOISTURE EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS STARTING IN THE WEST LATER ON MON. JUST NOT SURE HOW
FAR EAST THE BREAKING UP OF THE CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS MON NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN THE EAST DUE TO THE NE WINDS.

THINK ENOUGH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA FOR TUE AND WED TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE SE HALF STARTING OUT ON TUE SO NOT
SURE ABOUT THE CLOUDS SO WILL GENERALLY GO FOR PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
SE HALF WITH MORE CLEARING FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON MON WILL MODERATE BACK AROUND NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM PATTERN WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BUT A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND BACK TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ALLOW
FOR A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MODELS TRY TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THINK
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LIMITED ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL HAVE A LOW 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS DEWPOINTS SNEAK UP ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED SO THE LOW POP SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT. BY SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROP TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT STALLS BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL FILL BACK IN AS THE
LOW APPROACHES WITH STEADY RAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW AT
CAK/YNG...MAINLY 16-19Z BUT ALSO POSSIBLE ANY TIME BEFORE THAT.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES WITH A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT CAK/YNG THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THAT
ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEASTLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TODAY WITH
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAVE
EXTENDED IT UNTIL 4AM...EXPECTING THE WAVES TO REMAIN UP FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AT THE LAKE ERIE BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON THE WESTERN
BASIN WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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