Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261909
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  CURRENTLY MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS CAPPED.  THE CAP WAS BROKEN OVER INDIANA AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA.  THE CAP WAS BROKEN BY A
COMBINATION OF POOLING DEWPOINTS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD
FRONT. THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WORKING INTO
THE CAP OVER OHIO.  WITH THAT SAID...THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE 850 MB THERMAL PACKING IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS IS THE DEW POINT GRADIENT.  DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE BIG QUESTION IS THE
CAP AND TO WHAT EXTENT WILL IT BE BROKEN.  THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IS PRODUCING HIGHER POPS
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC.  I AM NOT SURE WE ARE GOING TO SEE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN
INDIANA BUT BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE FRONT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET.  I AM GOING TO SPLIT THE GFS AND NAM
POPS KEEPING HIGH CHC OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.  MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.  THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR SHOULDN`T MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.  I WILL BUMP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z.  THE EXTENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUESTIONABLE ON WEDNESDAY.  I THINK THE
MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT A LITTLE FAST AND WE MAY HOLD ON TO
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  I AM LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
MODEL ON WED AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY.  WHILE MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON A DRY FORECAST...I WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.  I WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MY HUNCH IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT BRINGING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WITH GULF MOISTURE NORTH ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. RAISED THE POP TO
"LIKELY" FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THE AIR MASS MAY
REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WARM SATURDAY... PROBABLY WELL IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS COMING
UP. SOMEWHAT COOLER SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS (BUT STILL
HUMID) THEN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR LABOR DAY...UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY CREEP BACK UP ON TUESDAY AS
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA WILL
FIGHT SOME STABLE AIR AS THEY COME EAST BUT I AM GUESSING THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE DEW POINT POOLING TO
GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM GOING AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL USE A TEMPO FORECAST FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SEVERAL HOURS
LATER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER DEVELOP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THAT WOULD BE JUST SPECULATION AT THIS POINT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE FORECAST. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT TYPICALLY WE SEE STRATUS DEVELOP DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN
THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA AND WILL INDICATE SUCH IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
PERHAPS MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAKENING
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE
LAKE LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE
THE LAKE RATHER CHOPPY...MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
GRADIENT AND WIND FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG THOUGH AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH WIND BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND NOT ENOUGH WIND/WAVES FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY THEN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BACK BY THE
WEEKEND AND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE COULD GET CHOPPY BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







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