Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 211830
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
230 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017
High pressure centered over the Northern Plains will slowly
drift south through early next week. At the same time...an area
of low pressure will pass to the south of the area on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lot`s of strato cumulus floating across the area with high
clouds moving overhead from the southwest. Although the lower
clouds may diminish some overnight the high clouds associated
with the low off to the southwest will continue to stream into
the area. Southern areas will end up at least mostly cloudy
tonight with periods of partly cloudy in the north...especially
out near TOL. Precip associated with the previously mentioned
low should remain to the south. Given the amount of clouds
expected...have stayed to the warm side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Am going to try for a dry short term period and have removed all
mention of precip through early Tuesday. The guidance coming in
has been trending south with the precip associated with the low
passing to the south. Most of this precip should remain south of
the I-70 corridor. The closest the local area could get to
rain will be on Saturday but still confident even Knox County
will remain dry. It will be a cool weekend with highs Saturday 5
to 10 degrees below normal. Readings will return to near normal
Sunday and then climb above normal on Monday. Some places could
see lows dip into the 30s...especially Saturday night. Will let
later shifts take a closer look at the frost potential.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy in the south on Saturday but by
Sunday and Monday skies will be mostly sunny.
Have used a blend of guidance
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still some disagreement on the timing and strength of the features
for the middle and latter portion of next week as the models
struggle to eject the closed low along the east coast with a fast
flow aloft over the western and middle of the country. Many of the
models continue to drive a weakening front over the ridge across the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. I suspect that the ridge may be tougher
than given credit for but given 6 days out it is certainly
reasonable to mention a low pop chance for showers.
We should be building the ridge aloft Thursday into Friday with
a panhandle hook developing ahead of the next southwestern
short wave. Some of the guidance posts QPF in our area, perhaps
from warm advection or another weakening cold front from the
west (from the CMC and ECMWF) or perhaps the old frontal is
still strung out in the area. In any case, will keep a small pop
in the forecast as suggested by guidance until we can get a
better trend but the real story will likely be the warming
temps. Highs by the end of the week seemingly will warm well
into the 70s.
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Stratocumulus should prevail over the area thru tonight. Mix of
MVFR/VFR cigs should lower to just MVFR tonight then drier air
spreading south into the NW part of the area should help cigs to
start to break up around TOL starting later Sat morning. WNW winds
10 to 20 knots will settle down this evening and veer around to ne
for Sat and increase a little by late Sat morning.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible much of Saturday.
The marginal SCA conditions for the east half of the lake should be
ending as winds veer more toward the north this evening and decrease
some in speed. Winds should stay just light enough Sat to keep waves
under 4 foot and become ne where they should continue thru Mon until
veering to SE to S Mon night and Tue. A cold front may drift SE
across the lake by Wed night but there are model differences.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for