Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010626
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
226 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. REMAINING LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE AT THIS TIME. ANY PRECIPITATION IN THAT
AREA SHOULD BE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
LOWER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH
AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE THE CLEVELAND/AKRON AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS EAST OF CLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON. WILL TRIM THE FLOOD WATCH TO
AREAS WHERE RAIN AND CONVECTION MIGHT STILL BE ONGOING...EASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO SUMMIT COUNTY AND EASTWARD. THE REMAINING
SHOWERS WILL PULL OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS AND A BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY
BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MID LEVELS AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST
PA. STILL COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CUMULUS
IS EXPECTED SO WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SUNSHINE RETURN. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY JUMP UP AROUND 70 EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH A
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW.

THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAST OR HOW FAR THE UPPER LOW MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY WITH ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS BACK
UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST
THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. ONE OF THE MODELS
DOESN`T MOVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR/IFR AND VISBILIIES WILL
BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES WITH BR AND -DZ. BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR MAY BE
OBSERVED AT WESTERN TERMINALS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.
ISOLATED NON VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TONIGHT. IS IT DOES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 30 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS TO DECREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY THEY SHOULD DECREASE
BUT MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME LARGER WAVES INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS GOING IN THEIR CURRENT
CONFIGURATION.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 15 KNOTS. WINDS LOOK AS IF THEY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MULLEN



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