Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 011343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON LAND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE UPDATE AS THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 1015 AM. AT THIS TIME NO ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HIGHS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND.

A CONVERGENT AREA WAS ON THE LAKE AND THAT GENERATED A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THE BAND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE REGION BUT WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS EXPECTED. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE
UNDER A MILE. SOME VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE STRATUS
OVERTOOK THE AREA. SO AFTER A CLOUDY START...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT
A 5 TO 8 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE EXPECTED SKY COVER. AIR MASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COOL AND WILL LIKELY END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUN. THEREFORE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE UPPER 60S AND A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS FOR
TODAY. MOISTURE IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DEEP SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY FRIDAY AND BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED/STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. COOL CONDITIONS AND A LINGERING
TROUGH WILL PERPETUATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REGAIN ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. AGAIN
THERE IS A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE WITH GUID TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING THAT MAY LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0C AND -3C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 40S EVEN WITH SOME REMAINING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RECOVER AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT. FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY SO ANY LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
TARGETED UP THE LAKE TOWARD BUFFALO/WESTERN NY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THEY DO SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH FLOW MORE ONSHORE INTO THE
SNOWBELT. SO SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. QUITE
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ANY DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD LOWER THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE UP THE LAKESHORE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ANY
LUCK WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MIX IN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY BUT WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO IT MAY NOT BE
A FACTOR.

TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS WARMER EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +1C AND +6C SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NE OH/NW PA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE BUT THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILING THIS MORNING
AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY. A LITTLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING AND A BREEZE TO KEEP THE FOG TO A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE
LARGER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD COME DOWN ON THE
WESTERN BASIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE LAKE SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED UP
ELSEWHERE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.