Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A ridge of high pressure will move slowly east across the area to
the New England coast by Wednesday night. Low pressure will move
east to northern Ohio by Wednesday night forcing a warm front to
lift north across the area. The low pressure system will move
northeast to Lake Ontario by Thursday evening forcing a cold front
across the area Wednesday. High pressure will build east across
the area Friday.


Cannot rule out a light shower or sprinkle across the far east
snowbelt so have continued that slight chance. Will monitor
temperatures for today...but so far all is on track and there are
not significant changes with this mid morning update.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure will gradually build east today. The flow
around the high will support a north to northwest flow from the
northern Great Lakes into northwest Pennsylvania this morning. A
few showers and sprinkles were being reported over eastern
Crawford and eastern Erie counties in Pennsylvania. Otherwise,
sunshine will be the rule this morning across much of the area
except the northeast. Some cloud cover will develop during the day
in advance of the next storm system approaching from the west.
Latest satellite imagery shows this cloud deck pushing east across
Iowa at this time. 850 MB temperatures drop down into the 0 to -4
C range from Cleveland East while they begin to warm to between 0
and 4 degrees in the west today. Cold air advection taking place
on the east side of the surface high pressure ridge will keep
temperatures in the 50s across the area again today.


Kind of messy upper level pattern taking shape at this time with
broad sweeping trough over the northeastern portions of the United
States while a broad upper level ridge persists over the western
two thirds of the country. Some weak shortwave troughs will push
east in the upper level ridge toward the forecast area Wednesday
and Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to amplify with time
during this period as a deep digging trough plows into the west
coast. This in turn will help deepen a trough axis across the
middle Mississippi valley region. The trough will then slide east
through this forecast period to the eastern seaboard by Thursday.

The digging upper level trough will spawn cyclogenesis over the
lee of the Rockies today and deepen the low as it tracks east
toward the forecast area. The surface low will reach the forecast
area Wednesday and then move east northeast Thursday into Friday.
A warm front extending east from the low will bring some warm air
advection to the local area in advance of the low pressure system
Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm air advection is not expected
to be all that strong due to the compact nature of the low
pressure system. Cold front sweeps east as well with the low.

The storm system is expected to pack a bit of moisture with it and
a fairly widespread rain event will develop Wednesday into
Thursday across the area. The moisture with the low will push east
of the area by Thursday evening.

Temperatures through the period will start out on the chilly side
during the overnight hours as good radiational cooling takes place
under the influence of the ridge. Some gradual warming will shape
up in advance of the low as warm air advection begins to develop.


Have not made many changes to the long term this morning.  The ECMWF
and GFS continue to have timing differences during the period with
the GFS faster with the main features.  Both take a low to the north
of the area over the weekend but the GFS pushes the low and
associated cold front across the area faster.  The slower ECMWF has
a deeper low further south than the GFS.  These differences should
have little impact on the practical weather as rain remains likely
Saturday and possible on Sunday.  Both of these models show good
warming on Saturday and have bumped temps up some from the earlier
forecast.  By Monday high pressure should be back in control and
will try for a dry day.


.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The TAF period looks to remain VFR and mostly dry for northern
Ohio and NW PA. Lake-effect clouds off of Lakes Huron and Erie are
allowing for 5000ft ceilings at KERI and KYNG with some scattered
cumulus making it into KCLE and KCAK. As the winds shift around
from the north to the northeast ahead of a warm front, these
lake-effect clouds should diminish this evening and high clouds
from the west will build in for Wednesday. For Wednesday, winds
will be out of the east and ceilings will lower as the warm front
approaches. Thinking that rain stays out of the area until late
Wednesday, but have a vicinity shower mention at KTOL and KFDY as
some rain may appear to the west in the afternoon hours.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday and again on


Winds and waves continue to come down and the buoys are all showing
3 feet or less.  Will go ahead and cancel the remainder of the small
craft as winds are expected to slowly diminish.  Northerly winds
will continue today but are expected to become easterly overnight.
Speeds may increase enough that a small craft may be need in the
western basin on Wednesday.  The flow will become southerly
Wednesday night in advance of an approaching low.  The low will move
up the lake on Thursday with the flow behind becoming northwest to
north and increasing.  More small craft headlines are expected at
that time.  High pressure will move over the lake on Friday with
another strong low moving across the northern Lakes on Saturday.
South to southwest winds will increase on Saturday in response to
this system.




NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.