Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 122250
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND
BRING IN NOTABLY MORE MOIST AIR TO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH TIMING/INSTABILITY
WILL NOT SUPPORT STRONG STORMS...CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AROUND 08Z WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY MORNING...EXPECTED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT...A FEW ON EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS/LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ON HOW THE
DAY WILL PROGRESS WITH MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM
SE MI/TOL AND ACROSS THE LAKE. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FUTURE CONVECTION AS WELL AS WHERE ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RESIDE. AREA IS WITHIN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF SEVERE INGREDIENTS LOOK GOOD ASSUMING WE
ARE AMPLY UNSTABLE. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND PW
APPROACHES 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY HAVE SOME TRAINING. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA HOPEFULLY BY MIDNIGHT AND WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER CLD FRONT...THIS ONE BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...CROSSES ON MONDAY. AGAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE. A WEST BREEZE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN H8 TEMPS THAT WILL FALL BELOW 10C
MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE THE SHOWER THREAT
ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR LOWER BUT NOT ZERO AT
THIS POINT. WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 70 DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TUESDAY.
RIDGING AND DRYING WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IF THEY DO OCCUR IT WILL BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD NUDGE HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

ELSEWHERE AFTERNOON CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET AND INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO
TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION POSSIBLE. WEAK LAKE BREEZE FROM EAST OF KCLE TO KERI
WILL KEEP WINDS ONSHORE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD NW OH AND
LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
THINKING HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW OHIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
ERIE AROUND 05Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE LAKE
SEEING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. THESE WINDS WILL BE DISRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE LAKE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO AFTER
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE LONGER FETCH WILL BUILD WAVES TO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT
BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. THE
LONGER FETCH FROM THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD WAVES ENOUGH
BY TUESDAY MORNING TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE WARMER WATERS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE
LAKE. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR EVEN TOWER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD GENERATE WATERSPOUTS. DID NOT ADD
THIS TO THE GRIDS YET BUT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ADDED AT SOME POINT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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