Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230836
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the Central Great Lakes this morning
dragging a cold front across the forecast area.   This will usher in
more seasonal conditions and kick off some Lake effect snow showers
in the snowbelt tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure centered over Lake Huron with the leading edge of the
cold front just east of Erie PA.   Showers over extreme NE OH and NW
PA will move east of the area by the morning rush.   Models in good
agreement tracking the low into SE Quebec by this evening, which is
in line with current ht falls centered over SW Quebec.   First wave
of precip will be east by the morning rush hour, but the second wave
of showers will move into NW OH by mid morning and move across the
rest of the forecast area during the day.   High temps for the day
will be this morning with slowly falling temps during the afternoon.
Most precip should fall as rain, but by late afternoon into early
evening precip,  will transition to snow.   Do not expect much in
the way of accumulations however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow showers will develop across the snowbelt tonight.
Can pick up a few inches overnight but should come to an end quickly
Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.

The short term begins Wednesday night with models showing an upper
disturbance over the region with a surface trough across the lake.
System is not strong nor the airmass particularly moist but will
need to continue the threat of snow showers far northeast OH and
nwrn PA with 850mb temps around -14C and flow off the lake. Thursday
there could be a few lingering snow showers but high pressure will
be building in so will continue a dry forecast for now. High
pressure will continue to keep the area dry through Friday with a
warming trend intact for Friday as the high drifts to our east. The
next system continues to be problematic with the GFS and ECMWF
significantly different on timing of moisture/precip.  For now will
side closer to the slower ECMWF and have high chance to likely pops
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Picking up from the
short term discussion, will continue with high chance to likely pops
Saturday night and Sunday with slow moving system moving through the
area.  Will have chance pops linger Sunday night and Monday in the
northeast with the potential for a little snow off the lake.  Monday
night and Tuesday look dry with high pressure building in from the
south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cold front will move east of the forecast area by daybreak
taking the rain and tsra with it. Second wave of showers expect
later today. Transition to snow toward evening with little or no
accumulations expected today.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR as lake effect snow showers develop in the
snow belt tonight and linger into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will track northeast across the central lakes today and
reach southern Quebec and New England be evening. Winds will
increase out of the southwest on the lake reaching near 30 knots
this evening before turning northwest and decreasing slowly
overnight.  Light northwest flow will turn southwest thursday
increasing out of the south Friday at around 15 knots. Look for
southwest flow 15 to 20 knots Saturday

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK/Riley


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