Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280755
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move quickly east of the region
today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley
tonight. This warm from should be north of the area by Sunday
morning. Another strong low pressure system will develop over
the Mississippi Valley on Sunday and push a cold front across
the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will move quickly east of the region today. So
expect to have a dry day but cloud cover will be on the
increase as the next storm system develops well to the
southwest of the region.

It will be cooler today but temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages. Most locations will be within a couple
degrees of 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather is expected across the region as several
pieces of low pressure move toward the region. Each area of low
pressure helping to move a warm front gradually further
northward. The warm front should be north of the region on
Sunday with the warm sector returning. We will then await a
strong area of low pressure that will move through the central
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will help to push a
cold front across the region at some point on Monday. There
will be a chance of stronger thunderstorms on Monday but we have
plenty of time to monitor this. Until then several waves of
heavier rainfall will cross the region. The heaviest rainfall
will likely be closer to the track of the areas of low pressure.
So NW Ohio should see the higher amounts of rain. At this point
any flooding problems will all hinge on how persistent the
periods of thunder can be.

It will be cooler on Saturday with increased cloud cover and
periods of rain. Highs will range from around 60 north to the
lower 70s south. Warmer on Sunday with highs into the 70s to
lower 80s. Mondays temperatures will be tough to call with the
timing of the cold front uncertain. In any event there should be
a decent east to west temperature gradient with highs ranging
from the upper 60s west to the upper 70s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cooler, more active long term period in store as long term begins
Tuesday with a large upper low over the Great Lakes region.
Maintained chance pops during the day Tuesday, but backed off to
slight chance north Tuesday night as the low pulls away to the
northeast. Another trough will dig across the central CONUS
Wednesday and Wednesday night with a surface low developing and
tracking south of the area. Models are still quite different with
the handling of the upper/surface lows and resulting pops. Current
thinking is that there will be a fairly dry period between systems
Tuesday night and Wednesday, but will maintain slight chance pops
for forecast continuity. Best precip chances will remain south and
east of the region Wednesday night through Friday, and have cut back
pops quite a bit to mid chance eastward during this period. No major
changes to temps which will be at or slight below normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals for the first half of
the period, as a ridge of high pressure slides northeast across
the region. Some VFR to high end MVFR stratus will slide
northeast across northwest Ohio and may clip KTOL and KFDY, with
scattered stratocu possible through 12Z at other terminals.
Winds may be light and variable at times but will pick back up
towards the end of the period. SHRA and lower ceilings possible
towards the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat through
Mon then just showers Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build across Lake Erie today as a
washed out surface boundary lifts north of the lake. Winds will
generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range out of the south today and
tonight. The front will settle back south of the lake late tonight
into Saturday morning, with winds increasing a bit out of the north
through the day on Saturday, mainly in the 5 to 15 knot range. Winds
will become northeasterly and increase quite a bit late Saturday
night through Sunday and low pressure tracks northeast towards the
lake. Winds may increase to 15 to 25 knots Sunday but should remain
under gale force. Winds will again increase out of the south as the
low tracks north through the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front
through the region Sunday night and Monday, then veering southwest
as a cold front moves across the lake Monday and Monday night.
Southwest winds will approach 30 knots on Tuesday with low pressure
north of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt


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