Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes tonight and Sunday. The high will move east of the
area on Monday. The next low will move northeast across the
Great Lakes Tuesday and take a cold front across the local area
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Will begin the evening with likely pops southeast with the
storms. Drier air moves into the area overnight as high
pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue for
Sunday and sunday night with fair weather expected. Lows tonight
and Sunday night seasonal. Highs on Sunday a few degrees above
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered along the mid Atlantic coast on
Monday, with southerly/return flow regime over the Great Lakes/Ohio
valley. Kept Monday dry for the moment. However the environment will
become a bit unstable with dewpoints on the rise with upper 60s
expected, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s. Some models indicate
a convectively induced disturbance/MCV propagating through the
region on Monday which would be enough to spark some convection, but
will wait until some more model consistency to add pops during this
time.

Precip chances will increase late Monday night through Tuesday as a
phasing upper trough digs southeast from central Canada into the
Great Lakes region, bringing a surface low northeast through the
lakes and a cold front east through the region. Went with cat pops
across most of the area Tuesday afternoon as models are in good
agreement with timing/coverage of precip. Much cooler air will build
in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with highs on
Wednesday only reaching the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Could see a few lingering showers in the extreme east Wednesday
night into Thursday as much colder air moves over the Lake. But
a large area of high pressure builds SE over the Great Lakes
Thursday and remains entrenched through the end of the forecast
period. As a result it will be cooler and drier across the
forecast area through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The precip is gone and the clouds are about gone. Still seeing
some mid level clouds over the eastern end of the area but these
should exit the area shortly. With the exception of some patchy
MVFR fog inland areas later tonight...VFR weather with just a
few high clouds is expected during the TAF period. Winds will
become light and variable shortly with light south to southwest
flow on Sunday. Winds will become onshore at KERI during the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/tstms on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build east across the lakes tonight through
Sunday night as a trough pushes south of Lake Erie this afternoon.
Winds will primarily remain west to briefly northwest tonight, 5-10
kts, before the surface high center slides south near the Ohio
valley Sunday as winds become more southwesterly, generally 5-15
kts. Southwest flow will slowly increase Sunday night through
Tuesday as high pressure slides east of the region and low pressure
develops over the Plains and deepens into the Great Lakes. Winds
will become 15-20 kts out of the southwest Tuesday before a cold
front pushes east across the lakes, with winds veer northwesterly.
Small craft advisories may be needed northeast of Cleveland Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, before north winds subside to 10 kts
or less Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Greenawalt


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