453
FXUS61 KCLE 030807
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
407 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low
pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold
front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a
weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from
this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make
slow progress east across the area today with the warm front
lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore.
The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down
high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud
field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat
difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection.
Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts
north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited
this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and
thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in
Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest
Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean
storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not
expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain
will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the
relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a
half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore
to near 80 in the southeastern counties.

A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as
mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability
decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends
to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern
counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop
everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield
to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the
low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of
heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the
1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another
low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to
initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the
afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW
Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period
and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through
the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high
pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low
flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the
cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly
storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency
environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a
relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high
pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday
night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest
POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8
degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night
will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into
early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low
over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the
area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once
again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway
eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of
the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of
temperature expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Thunderstorms will continue to impact TOL through approximately
0630Z and then it seems a break in  is likely for several
hours. A warm front is located from west central Indiana towards
Dayton, OH. This warm front will lift north into the area this
morning bringing a continued chance of showers. Timing of
thunderstorms will be a challenge through the daytime hours as
the area continues to moisten with a slow moving area of low
pressure drifting east across Central Ohio. There will be a
little more time for heating across north central and northeast
Ohio and have included a Tempo for thunderstorms between 17-23Z
in Ohio, and as late as 02Z at ERI. The airmass will be moist so
heavy rain and IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
with any thunderstorms. Outside of showers and thunderstorms,
ceilings will tend to be VFR until after 02Z when a weak cold
front settles south into the area. Expect ceilings to trend
towards MVFR towards the end of the TAF cycle.

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period and
somewhat variable. Broad low pressure will result in easterly
winds ahead of the low, backing to northeasterly near the
lakeshore, and eventually westerly behind the low.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
through this Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for
the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through
early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks  to several
frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore
winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or
less for the bulk of the forecast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...26