000
FXUS61 KCLE 150552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930PM...WARM FRONT EXTENDED INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH CONVECTION
UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN WI AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. A FEW SPRINKLES ON
THE RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD
BARELY WET THE GROUND...IF AT ALL. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
QUIET INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD 8AM FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OH AND NW
PA. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO LOWER MI...BUT UNSURE HOW
FAR IT WILL GET INTO OUR AREA. DID INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND AND STARTED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 6
AM. TEMPS WILL BE THEIR LOWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY. WILL GET A QUICK RISE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY...BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. AREA WELL CAPPED IN THE MORNING...BUT CAP ERODES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. FRONT IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT...AND TAKE THE DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR WITH
IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TOP THE RIDGE AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. WE MIGHT HANG ON TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY...AT
LEAST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. THE GFS IS OFTEN OVER DONE WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
BEGIN WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW OHIO ON
SATURDAY. WILL FORECAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
RAINY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IN FACT WE COULD GET BY WITH VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNLESS WE GET HUNG UP WITH A
OUTFLOW/MESO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND GET BACK TO 80 OR BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS
TRYING TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA WHERE IT IS
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES TO GO BELOW VFR. A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR TO TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WINDS
JUST ABOVE 2000 FEET ARE AT 55 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
FORTUNATELY THE WARMER AIR WILL CREATE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIMIT
THE 30-40 KNOTS AT 925MB FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE ABOUT A SIX HOUR WINDOW WHERE WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND UPSTREAM WINDS TO
DETERMINE IF A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATER
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL COMBINE FOR A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC