000
FXUS61 KCLE 230813
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ITSELF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM YET TO CROSS THE AREA. AS OF 3 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST
ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THE BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS FURTHER
UPSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR
THUNDER TODAY...MAINLY I-71 EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS
COLDER AIR REACHES THE REGION ALOFT. WHAT WE WILL GET ARE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MORE SO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TODAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS DISTINCTLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWS WITH UPPER LOWS ANCHORED
ACROSS BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
DRY WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES.

THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT THOSE WILL BE PULLING EAST. MODELS SHOWING REALLY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER 60S WEST. MORE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND
ZERO C...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CU BUT NOT MUCH WITH OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST. BY
THIS TIME WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOPING FOR MORE ISOLATED
FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHANCE IS THERE TOO.

PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE AGAIN FOR THE HOLIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO INCH
OUR WAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND STILL REMAINING DRY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY..HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REGION. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK.  FEATURES SIMILAR AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/OK AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.  DIFFERENCE IS IN THE RH
FIELD WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY VS THE ECMWF. FOLLOWED THE DRIER ECMWF WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOSTLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY BUT REACH INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND APPROACH 80
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO
IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY FIRST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH
RAIN...MIST/FOG AND LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. BEHIND IT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NNW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WAVES UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK