000
FXUS61 KCLE 141749
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY AND THE REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT IN THE WEST SO BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR THE DAY THERE. JUST
LEFT CHANCE POPS EXTREME EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC LIFT/CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPEST HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA.
THINKING WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUN SO WILL GO
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS THERE. FURTHER EAST THINKING CLOUDS HANG
ON AND WILL SHAVE GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUMMER TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL
BE SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TORN ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A CAPPING INVERSION
ACROSS THE AREA BUT ABOVE THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES 1500-2000J/KG. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHORT WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST THEME OF CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH LIKELY SOUTHEAST
BUT THINKING POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE CAP HOLDING MOST PLACES AT
LEAST IN THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WAVER NORTH AND
SOUTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL CLOSE.
FRIDAY WILL DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT DROPS TO SOUTHERN
OHIO AS A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD PUSHING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TOWARD WARMER
TEMPERATURES...MORE MOISTURE...AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY BUT
STALLS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THE WARMER AIR RETURNS AND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND STATIONARY FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT I DONT THINK IT
WILL BE AN ALL DAY RAIN OR NIGHT RAIN EVENT EACH DAY.  THERE COULD
BE SOME LARGE BREAKS WHERE THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET.

WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL COME WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT STICKS AROUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS ALREADY SHIFTING NORTH OF KFDY AND
KTOL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...CAUSING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER...MAINLY AT KERI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
A BIT TONIGHT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN WED MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...SHORT LIVED NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FLYING.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE
AREAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE
FLOW. WINDS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LAKE
TO CALM DOWN ONCE AGAIN. LAKE SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY