000
FXUS61 KCLE 142304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. AS OF 7PM WARM
FRONT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO DAYTON. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO EXTREME NE OH BY DAYBREAK. WITH 55
DEW POINTS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT FROST TONIGHT. IN FACT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP AND IN NW PA...WILL LIKELY RISE SOME BEFORE
MORNING OR AT LEAST HOLD STEADY. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DO HAVE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING. WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW PA. PRECIP AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. MORE QUESTION THOUGH WITH
WHAT WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE FRONT NEARING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA...BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE IF WE
MAY NEED HIGHER CHANCES AND IF THE AREA NEEDS TO BE A LITTLE
LARGER. PRECIP AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN THE MODELS
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY...BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. AREA WELL CAPPED IN THE MORNING...BUT CAP ERODES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. FRONT IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT...AND TAKE THE DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR WITH
IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TOP THE RIDGE AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY. WE MIGHT HANG ON TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY...AT
LEAST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. THE GFS IS OFTEN OVER DONE WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
BEGIN WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW OHIO ON
SATURDAY. WILL FORECAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
RAINY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IN FACT WE COULD GET BY WITH VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNLESS WE GET HUNG UP WITH A
OUTFLOW/MESO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND GET BACK TO 80 OR BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS ALREADY SHIFTING NORTH OF KFDY AND
KTOL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...CAUSING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER...MAINLY AT KERI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
A BIT TONIGHT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN WED MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...SHORT LIVED NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
FORTUNATELY THE WARMER AIR WILL CREATE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIMIT
THE 30-40 KNOTS AT 925MB FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE ABOUT A SIX HOUR WINDOW WHERE WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND UPSTREAM WINDS TO
DETERMINE IF A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATER
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL COMBINE FOR A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC