Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OTHER THAN TWEAKING THE SKY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF HOLMES AND KNOX COUNTIES. THIS LINE WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS STARK
COUNTY EARLIER...AND MORE RECENTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN ABOUT AN HOUR. AN AERIAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KNOX. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO RAPID RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...IN ADDITION TO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
POCKETS OF CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTH...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET BUT WARM AND HUMID. 850
MB TEMPS WILL RETURN TO PLUS 20 ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S SEEM REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND
MANY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SUMMER. THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS TRENDING
SLOWER AND SHOULD NOT ARRIVE NOW TILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP WITH ONLY ABOUT THE NW 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE
AREA SEE PRECIP CHANCES BY EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT`S LOOKING LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE GONE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A LOW POP ON THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 80S WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO KICK OFF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL ONLY CARRY A
LOW CHANCE POP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG AT AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN WHERE THE
SHOWERS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN
AT CLEVELAND AND ERIE. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH LAND AND LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC


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