Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231652
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO BUT WITH ANY LUCK WE CAN
HAVE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...RAIN FREE AND MILD AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY VFR. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR WOULD BE
NEAR TOL AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CURRENT MVFR SHIELD OF
CLOUDS THAT SPANS MICHIGAN. LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH TONIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ESE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUSTS WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST TONIGHT...BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE WARM
FRONT...WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE...HIGHER ALONG THE ERIE PA
LAKESHORE FROM DOWN SLOPE FLOW. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER THAT WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING...STRONGER WITH THE FRONT/WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWN SLOPE
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>145-162>165.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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