Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME FLEETING RADAR RETURNS...RELATIVELY FAST MOVING... AND
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW SPOTS WHERE SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AS THE FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE AND SEE
IF THERE IS A REASON TO GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POP ANYWHERE.

THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 0C EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH TRUE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-12K FEET RANGE AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN A
FEW OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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