Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 271146
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will move east through the Ohio
Valley today while high pressure remains to the north over lower
Ontario. Low pressure over the central plains will then move
northeast extending a warm front over the area Saturday night
before moving over the area on Sunday. This low will depart the
area by Monday morning dragging a cold front behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only change to the forecast was to remove the mention of
thunder as the remaining showers exit the area through mid
morning.

Previous Discussion...
Decaying convection will continue to push east across the area
this morning before dissipating by this afternoon. Some of the
heaviest rainfall will be along and south of the US 30 corridor
where KMNN has picked up about a half inch of rain overnight.
This area also still has some embedded thunder within it so when
with the showers with isolated thunder wording for the forecast
this morning as a couple spots could still see some thunder as
this rain progresses east with the surface low. However, once
the rain passes, the forecast will be dry with high pressure
creeping in from the north and likely giving the area some
sunshine for this afternoon/evening.

The challenge with today`s forecast is with the temperatures.
The weak surface low remains to the south below the convection
with the southerly winds reaching no further north of the I-70
corridor. Meanwhile...a surface high lies over lower Ontario
pressing northerly winds across much of the CWA. These northerly
winds should continue throughout the daytime hours and will
keep the temperatures in check. If the southerly winds and the
warm front creep north at all, some of the southern counties in
the CWA could certainly creep closer to 80. So, in short, it is
a possibility that there could be a 10 degree spread from
Cleveland to Mount Vernon, but for now believe that the front
will wait until after peak heating hours to enter the CWA,
keeping temperatures close to average throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low over the central plains will trek northeast and
will allow for the warm front to move north allowing for the
next round of precipitation on Sunday. The timing of the warm
front and surface low have slowed a bit so precipitation will
likely not begin in the area until after daybreak on Sunday.
Taking a good look at some of the hi-res models, it seems that
the area will get two round of precipitation with the first
being another round of decaying convection this time from
Saturday`s severe weather over the middle Mississippi river
valley. Once the first round clears, the second round will be
with the surface low and the subsequent cold front. It there is
sufficient time for the atmosphere to recover, there is the
potential for some more robust storms, but there are still
plenty of ifs at this point in time. Temperatures for Sunday
look seasonable with convection counteracting any warm air
entering the region.

The surface low that impacts the area for Sunday will be out of
the area for Monday so a dry forecast seems reasonable at this
time for the holiday. However, this low begins to stall and
deepen over Ontario and is progged to extend a wave of energy
through the area on Tuesday, giving the region another chance
for some rain. Tuesday doesn`t seem like a washout at this point
but some of this rain may linger into the long term forecast
period as well. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday also look to
be around normal in the 70s with largely neutral advection over
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term brings us into the first part of June. Temperatures
will still fall short of normals, but not by too much, with an
upper trough that we cannot shake across the Great Lakes and
northwest flow aloft across the local area. A trough moves
across the lower lakes for Wednesday with another possible
brushing far NE OH/NW PA Thursday. So, low precip chances remain
for Wednesday, but the remainder of the work week appears to be
dry for now. By Friday surface high should be more centered
over the Ohio Valley with the low and troughiness beginning to
pull out across eastern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Outside of where it rained overnight, conditions are VFR. MVFR
and a thin strip of IFR exists where the heaviest rain occurred.
Improvement will take place this morning as the front settles
south of the area. Most will improve to VFR by 16Z-18Z, but MFD
will likely be the last to improve and may take until mid
afternoon to get to VFR. Light east winds overall, but backed to
the northeast for ERI/CLE this afternoon. Late tonight/early
Sunday morning expect MVFR ceilings and possible fog to redevelop
for MFD/CAK/YNG at a minimum. Clouds may be thin in spots and
winds are expected to be light/variable to calm by then allowing
for the fog and/or stratus to develop. Showers and thunderstorms
enter the picture for the extended portion of the CLE TAF before
18Z SUN.

OUTLOOK...Some non-VFR possible across eastern OH/inland NW PA
Sunday morning. Areas non- VFR conditions Sunday/Sunday night
with showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
While a weak low crosses central Ohio today, high pressure will
reside across the lake with fair conditions after this mornings
showers pass. This will continue to be the case into Sunday morning.
On Sunday, though, low pressure will track across IL/IN and toward
the western basin of the lake by evening.  East-northeast winds will
come around to the south and then shift to the west Sunday night.
Winds are not overly strong, but do pick up Sunday night in the wake
of the cold front. The lake will remain fairly stable limiting the
winds Monday and Tuesday, but the possibility exists for small craft
advisory conditions with the west-southwest flow across the far east
end. A trough is expected to cross the lake for Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Mullen/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.