Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240012
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
812 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast will move off the coast
tonight. A warm front over the midwest will lift north of the
area Friday morning. Weakening low pressure will track across
the Great Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dew points away from Lake Erie continue to be quite low. Really
impressive push of warm advection pivoting across the western
Great Lakes and moving east tonight. The low level jet is
progged to increase and approach 50 knots near NW OH by
daybreak. The zone of most impressive isentropic ascent will
move quickly across the forecast area later tonight and early
Friday morning. There are scattered showers throughout this zone
crossing Illinois into Indiana but the coverage is not
impressive. This will likely continue to be the case as the
showers have to overcome the dry boundary layer but some of the
bigger drops will survive the fall from mid levels. Better
chance for measurable showers north where the condensation
pressure deficits are less. Cannot rule out a lightning flash or
two NW OH but not a great chance this far east out ahead of the
low level jet and will leave it out of the overnight forecast.
Temperatures aloft will warm as fast or faster than at the
surface so no real risk of frozen precip. Low temperatures will
likely be realized the first half of the night then temps will
rise with the south wind and increasing clouds. Made minor
temperature and dew point adjustments tonight based on current
trends and slight adjustments to speed up the arrival and
departure of the showers but none of the changes are
significant.

Original "Tonight" discussion...
As expected clouds have really struggled to make it over the
area this afternoon. Mid level clouds approaching the I-75
corridor continue to fall apart. However...the clouds should
start to make some progress tonight as the surface high moves
off the east coast. By daybreak skies should be mostly cloudy
all areas. The models continue to have differing ideas about how
much if any precip occurs overnight. The last SREF and NAM
remain the driest and confine precip chances to mainly NW PA
toward 09z. The other guidance including the GFS and ECMWF
continue to show more precip with much higher chances overnight.
Given how dry it as the surface will trend toward the drier
solutions. Surface dewpoints remain in the single digits some
areas so this seems reasonable. This thinking also matches up
with earlier forecasts. Will have chance pops about as far south
as the U.S. 30 corridor but really think only the northern tier
of OH counties plus NW PA have a realistic shot for measurable
precip.

Temps are also a challenge tonight. Readings currently vary
considerably with a lake breeze already thru BKL and heading
toward CLE. We already know temps are going to warm overnight
but the challenge is figuring out how much of a drop off there
will be after sunset. For now will allow a 5 to 10 degree drop
before the warm front arrives and readings start to rebound.
This would put most areas on the high side of guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Spring like weather will return to the area. The next 36 hours
or so should be dry as the surface baroclinic zones moves off
well to the north. Will begin to bring in precip chances on
Saturday but even then the southeast end of the area could
remain dry well into Saturday night. Will eventually need high
precip chances late Saturday night through Sunday. By that time
surface dewpoints will be well into the 50s. There could be some
thunder on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Already
had a mention in the forecast and that seems reasonable. It
should start to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night but the evening hours should be wet...especially in the
east.

Temps will be tricky during the period and depend quite a bit on
how much precip develops on Saturday. Readings could make a run
toward the upper 60s in the east...especially if there are a few
peaks on sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern with a period of above normal temperatures
expected in the long term period. Low pressure is expected to be
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning, exiting the
region. A few lingering showers are possible, especially across the
eastern part of the forecast area, with slight chance/chance pops
reflected in the forecast. Another phasing low will track into the
Great Lakes/Ohio valley region Monday night through Tuesday with
another shot of rain by Monday night, reflected in the grids with
high chance/likely pops. High pressure will settle southeast across
the Great Lakes by Tuesday night, with generally dry conditions
expected as the associated cold front from the Mon. night/Tue. low
get shunted south along the Ohio River. This is expected to bring
dry conditions to the region from Wednesday through Thursday. Precip
chances will increase again just beyond the forecast period as low
pressure moves out of the Plains into the region by next
Friday/Saturday. Above normal temps in the upper 50s/low 60s
expected Monday and Tuesday, with a slight cool down to near
normal temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure slides east tonight and allows a warm front to
push northeast across the terminals. Debate on how many showers
will be with the front seeing how dry of a start we have. Have
a VCSH mentioned for a few hours with the better chances across
far NE OH/NW PA and lower ceilings to the lower half of VFR.
Low level wind shear a concern later tonight as low level jet
accompanies the warm front. Surface gusts pick up by late
morning though. Will begin to see some MVFR ceiling develop and
move up across western OH. Some guidance brings a wealth of low
level moisture across the terminals, but if warm front gets
north of the area, the MVFR would possibly be temporary. SREF
guidance suggests this more optimistic route and have trended
that way with the exception of TOL/FDY through 00Z Sat.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Friday night and Saturday, more
widespread Sunday. Non-VFr possible again Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Thursday night and
then begin to increase in intensity from the south to southwest
through Friday. Flow suggests winds will keep highest waves away
from the nearshore waters to avoid small craft advisories at this
time. Winds diminish to light southerly over the weekend but begin
to increase slightly again Saturday night as a backdoor cold front
begins to push south across the lake. Cold front will stall over the
lake and lift north as a warm front Sunday but winds remain light
through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Greenawalt


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