Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 301300
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
900 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
High pressure over the mississippi valley will move over the area
today then shift off to the northeast by wednesday. A cold front
will push east through the region thursday then high pressure will
spread in from the west friday before a series of cold front moves
across the lakes on the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Adjusted near term cloud and temp grids but no major
changes for the afternoon.
Original...For the most part...the threat for shra appears to be
over as drier air has pushed into the area. An upper trough
working east across the cwa should help to generate a decent cu
field as daytime heating occurs. There still could be an isolated
pop-up shra today with daytime heating but the overall threat for
any given area is too low to require a pop high enough to be
Temps will be cooler today...especially along the lakeshore where
winds will turn off of lake erie. Highs should range from the upper
70s along the ne lakeshore to 80 to 84 in the sw half.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the area tonight providing mostly clear
skies and light winds so temps will be able to fall into the mid to
upper 50s for most of the cwa.
The high should continue to provide dry wx on tue and tue night with
near seasonal temps. The high shifts east on wed and winds turn more
to the south. Warmer and more humid air starts to return but most of
the rain should stay west of the cwa until wed night.
A slowing cold front remains on track to push east across the area
thu. A band of shra/tsra is expected to occur with the front so will
keep pops of 50% or better. The earlier timing of the front should
help to limit the strength of the storms. An upper trough moving
thru the lakes thu night will act to slow the exit of the shra in
the east thu night.
The leading edge of cooler air that will dominate the area for most
of the next 7 days will arrive for thu night with lows expected to
drop into the 50s for the better part of the cwa.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front should be well east of the area on Friday but the
weakening trough will be overhead. A decent looking short wave is
progged to cross the eastern Great Lakes and cannot rule out a
shower across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA.
The models are trending toward more of a trough aloft and northwest
flow over the weekend into early next week. We may sneak by on
Saturday with dry and seasonable weather ahead of the next cold
front. The next front may sag across the area on Sunday although
trying to time fronts a week ahead of time in a troughy pattern is
problematic. Will have a small chance of showers by Sunday.
Temperatures by Sunday may try to hang on near normal or perhaps
slip a couple of degrees below normal.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cumulus likely to develop by late morning with ceilings in some
sections of northeast OH and northwest PA. The cloud deck should
lift to VFR this afternoon as the mixing increases. Ceilings
should dissipate by early evening. VFR tonight. Local fog/mist
about daybreak Tuesday will be limited so it will not be
mentioned in any of the TAF forecasts at this time.
Outlook...Non-VFR Thursday with shra and possible tsra.
A weak cold front will move east of Lake Erie this morning. The west
to southwest flow behind the front will be somewhat stronger than
recent days but as high pressure builds in this afternoon the winds
will begin to diminish.
Winds will veer more from the northwest and then northeast as the
surface high tracks across eastern Canada the next couple of days.
The northeast wind could make the west half of the lake a bit choppy
by late Tuesday night and Wednesday but winds and waves should stay
below small craft criteria.
The next cold front is due on Thursday. Winds will continue to veer
ahead of the front and the south wind will pick up late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning ahead of the front. Winds will shift to
west southwest as the front crosses the lake on Thursday but the
gradient should remain relatively light through the end of the week.