Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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498
FXUS61 KCLE 280825
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW ACROSS IOWA THIS MORNING WILL OPEN...WEAKEN AND SLIDE
RIGHT INTO THE MEAN FLOW...MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT IT CAN RAIN WILL BE SQUEEZED BY THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME FIRST...AND THEN ON THE
OTHER END BY THE BETTER MOISTURE EXITING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LESS COVERAGE. THUNDER CHANCES
ARE SMALL TODAY. CANNOT RULE IT OUT FOR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP KEEP IT COOL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
CLOSE TO THE LAKE TO THE LOW 60 SOUTH NEAR MOUNT VERNON. WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY...MAJORITY OF THE WARM UP WILL HAVE TO
TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE THE CHANCE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ONLY MAKES IT TO THE PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. H8 FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
UNTIL FINALLY PRESSING SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST BIT OF
UPPER ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD BE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH A 50/50 CHANCE. ANOTHER COOL DAY
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY AIRMASS CHANGE.

WE GET A SMALL REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NUDGES ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN OH/NW PA. IT WILL
BE DRY...BUT CONTINUED COOL.

BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
NORTHWARD AND WITH IT...OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
STILL NOT HIGH WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME SEPARATION AMONGST THE MODELS...CONSENSUS IT
TO KEEP THE TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO CROSS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES STILL KEPT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE EAST DURING THE MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL HAVE ENDED WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES.

A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF RAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT 06Z WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. MOST SITES WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR
ALTHOUGH TOL/ERI MAY REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER WITH WINDS OFF THE
LAKE GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE OHIO WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OFF OF ERIE PA FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...PARALLEL TO THE
SHORELINE...TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAINTAIN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE LAKE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AS WAVES BUILD WITH ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL DECREASE LATE MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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