Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 312220
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. I SUSPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE TOLEDO AREA BUT CANNOT SAY
FOR CERTAIN THAT WILL NOT BE A SHOWER/STORM SO "SLIGHT CHANCE" IS
ALRIGHT FOR THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FROM MORROW COUNTY AND MANSFIELD TO CHARDON EAST. THE CLOUDS
SHIELD APPEARS TO BE EDGING EAST AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS AFTER SUNSET.

EARLIER "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS EVENING
AS CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN ON A DIURNAL LOOK ON SATELLITE. EXPECT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SO HAVE GONE A
TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES REALLY DON`T START TO RAMP UP TILL EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP OR SO FROM MIDDAY ON TO
COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE INTO NW OHIO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL TAKE IT`S
TIME CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND TWO
INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH THINGS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE MID 80S SOME PLACES. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO RETURN. WILL LIKELY SEE MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE OLD 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PUSHES IT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER. WILL KEEP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIMING...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT
PUSH IT TOO FAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT EVEN THOUGH AREA DRIES OUT AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT...CHANCES TOO LOW YET FOR A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND FLOW COMES BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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