Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 151109
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH COLDER AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN TO THE EAST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW THE PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AS DRY-SLOT OVERSPREADS
WESTERN OHIO. AREAS FROM TOL-FDY ARE MOSTLY DONE WITH THE SNOW
WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. STILL GETTING SOME
REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN FROM YOUNGSTOWN TO
MEADVILLE BUT EXPECT A FINAL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH 9AM. THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS IT FALLS ONTO WARM
ROADWAYS. STILL EXPECTING MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES EXCEPT UNDERNEATH HEAVIER BURSTS WHERE A
QUICK COATING OF SLUSHY SNOW MAY START TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
ALSO GETTING REPORTS OF SLICK CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE TOLEDO AREA
AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE ARE SEEING MORE SITES TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL. AS OF 3 AM THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY LIMA TO
MANSFIELD TO LORAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH MOST
SITES SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW BY 8 AM. RADARS TO OUR WEST SHOW
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ENDING WHILE ENHANCEMENT IS
BEING OBSERVED FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SW OHIO. THIS IS
OCCURING WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KNOT
JET STREAK ALOFT IS ENHANCING LIFT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE TOLEDO AREA
WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA OF
ENHANCEMENT WITH ONLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED...WHILE
AREAS IN A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM MARION TO SANDUSKY COULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL THROUGH 7 AM. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO SEE EVEN A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW ON ROADWAYS. THE
GREATER CLEVELAND AND ERIE PA AREAS WILL ALSO BE SEEING THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH AND ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL REALLY JUST DEPEND ON HOW HARD IT IS SNOWING.

WITH TIME WE WILL SEE THE MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH PRECIP RATES STARTING TO DECREASE. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
STRIPS AWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SNOW BELT. HI-RES MODELS ARE EVEN HINTING AT A LAKE HURON CONNECTION
ALTHOUGH NOT SURE IF THERE IS REALLY SUFFICIENT TIME FOR THIS TO SET
UP. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY ACROSS THE SNOW
BELT...WILL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
CANTON.

EASTERN AREAS EXPERIENCING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY THIS
MORNING WHILE WESTERN AREAS MAY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING ANY BREAKS TO FILL IN QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS IN PORIONS OF NW PA AND NE OHIO WHILE AREAS CLOSER
TO LAKE ERIE AND NW OHIO WILL ONLY DIP TO THE LOW 20S. YOUNGSTOWN IS
FORECAST TO DIP TO AROUND 17 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW FOR
APRIL 16TH OF 21 DEGREES FROM 1980. NOT EXPECTING OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE THAT CLOSE TO THE RECORDS.

A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 60
DEGREES AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. HELD ONTO THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND WEAK
RIDGING MOVE IN. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS HINTING AT RAIN
CHANCES AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BUT CONFIDENCE LOW WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES FAIRLY SIZABLE.   TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TURN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IN FACT SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
NWRN OHIO AND AT KTOL. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO MVFR FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING
LIFTING TO VFR AT KTOL 12-15Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SHOULD BE VFR
AT KCLE 20-22Z AND AT KERI BY 00Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO
TONIGHT THROUGH 3AM. FOR TODAY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR SO IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND. THE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT HOWEVER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH
THE HIGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
EAST. THE LOW WILL REACH WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL CROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY WEAKENING AS IT DOES.  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY. AFTER TONIGHT... EXPECT WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WAVES
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







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