Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 260202
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
A stalled frontal boundary located just south of Lake Erie will lift
north as a warm front on Sunday ahead of low pressure approaching
the Central Great Lakes. The low will slowly move northeast into
Canada on Monday. Another area of low pressure will track out of the
Plains through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday pulling the cold front
back south across the area behind it.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Have gone ahead and lowered temps north of the surface front.
Temps near the lake have fallen to close to the surface water
temperatures. Inland have also made minor adjustments to temps
based on current readings. Starting to see some precip to the
west. This activity could cross the I-75 corridor later tonight
so have left precip chances alone.
Previous...Northeasterly flow on Lake Erie will increase this
evening as the gradient increases ahead of low pressure moving
north from Missouri. The stronger flow off Lake Erie is expected
to push the front and cooler air southward across northwest
Ohio while remaining fairly stationary to the east. Most of
northwest Ohio will bottom out around 40 degrees tonight while
southerly flow a few counties to the southeast will maintain
mild conditions with lows only dropping into the upper 50s.
Satellite imagery shows numerous breaks in the clouds late this
afternoon which is a good indicator of the relatively dry low level
air in place. A dry night is expected for most areas with the ridge
aloft and an overall lack of forcing. We do bring a chance of
showers into western areas late tonight as the upper level closed
low to the west curls northeast towards the area.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Plume of deeper moisture will lift northeast across the area on
Sunday ahead of the closed upper low curling towards Michigan. This
will bring showers with scattered thunderstorms to northwest Ohio
during the morning, expanding eastward during the afternoon. Surface
warm front will lift back north with all areas warming into the 60s.
By late Sunday into Sunday evening, the mean flow is expected to set
up parallel to the storm motion across eastern Ohio and NW PA which
could result in some heavier areas of rain. More likely that
this will set up south of our area across eastern Ohio but
locations from Canton to Meadville could see a half inch to an
inch of rain on Sunday evening.
A break in the rain is expected late Sunday night into Monday as
the low lifts northeast into Canada, taking the deeper moisture
with it. Some degree of weak ridging expected aloft until
another area of low pressure moving out of the Plains slides
east across the Ohio Valley. Monday will be mild again with
temperatures starting to fall late Tuesday as this system
departs to the east and northerly flow increases. Another round
of showers possible Monday night and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building se from Canada should bring dry but cool
conditions for Wed...especially near Lake Erie where onshore winds
off of the lake look likely.
Things should change for Thu thru Sat as a slow moving upper trough
over TX makes its usual springtime track toward Ohio. Increasing
chances for shra look in order for Thu into Thu night with Fri also
looking wet. Sat more in question as model differences bring into
question whether the rain threat will be able to move off to the
east or not.
Temps look to generally be near normal.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions continue across most locations this evening. Some
MVFR and IFR will mix in later this evening into tonight as a
warm front lifts back north of the area. A few showers are
possible overnight near KTOL and KFDY. Other locations should
stay dry, though can`t rule out some drizzle. Could see some fog
develop tonight as well, but confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs for now. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop after 18-21Z Sunday most areas. Likely won`t reach
KERI until after 00Z. Expect IFR and possibly LIFR conditions
under the heavier showers and storms.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Sunday into Tue
then again by Thu.
Ne winds expected to produce marginal SCA conditions until Sun
morning before the flow veers to se. A downslope flow for Sun
Evening could be near SCA levels along the NW PA shoreline but then
winds settle down some by daybreak Mon and turn sw.
A cold front will drop se into Lake Erie by early Mon night then a
wave of low pressure will move along the front and in its wake will
create north winds that look to run about 10 to 20 knots Tue night
thru Wed that turn ne for Thu.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149.