Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 020722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BASED ON HRRR TIMING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE EXPANDS JUST TO
OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND BY 00Z BEGINS TO ENCROACH
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EAST EARLY AND CHANCE POPS WEST...THEN
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL FORCE RAIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AT THIS TIME AND THAT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE TODAY AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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