Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221730
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front over the northern great Lakes will sag south
across the area late tonight or early Saturday. A stronger cold
front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Short wave will be southeast of the area this afternoon with
lessening chances of thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be warming
through the layer so capping will increase. The weak front will
remain to the north although the surface trough associated with
the morning shortwave may hang up across the area. We should end
up with a hot and mainly dry afternoon unless new activity can
develop along the surface trough. highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s with heat index 100 or higher mainly west of I-77. The heat
advisory will remain in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory continues Saturday. The weak cold front drops south
across the area overnight and early Saturday. Will continue the
chance pops across the south on Saturday. Forecast is dry for
Saturday night/early Sunday. Convection out ahead of the
approaching cold front on Sunday results in chance pops across the
western sections during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Morning timing of passage of weak cold front mon morning for much of
the cwa may mean a dry frontal passage so will keep best pops in the
se. Pocket of drier air with high pressure looks to stay over the
area thru wed then some moisture starts to return for thu to allow
for small chc pops by then.

Temps should run above normal mon, moderating back to around to
slightly above normal for tue thru thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
trough south of the lakeshore counties...so possible for a few
tsra to pop up across the southern portion of the forecast area
this afternoon. Convection should die down quickly toward sunset.
Models continue to move a weak front through overnight. Nam and
GFS relatively dry with front so for now will remove mention of
showers overnight. Widespread mvfr br with patchy ifr overnight
but should burn off quickly saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr from isold shra/tsra Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW winds running 15 to 20 knots for a good part of the day will
probably produce 3 to 5 foot waves from ashtabula east today so will
run a small craft advisory with the associated beach hazard into
early tonight. A weak cold front crosses the lake early tonight and
winds start to veer to the nw while diminishing west to east.

Light and changeable winds set up out of the sw by sun night and
increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of the next weak cold front due to
cross the lake on mon that veers winds to the west then nw late mon
and mon night. Winds diminish on tue as highs pressure spreads into
the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>031-036>038-047.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Adams



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