Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 012333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
733 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WAS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LINE OF
CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR SANDUSKY TO JUST SOUTH OF CLE TO YOUNGSTOWN.
I SUPPOSE A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
BUT ANY COVERAGE WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. A DECENT PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. UPDATED THE HOURLY
SKY FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL LOOK AT THE HIGH CLOUD ISSUE FOR THE
NEXT UPDATE WITH RESPECT AS TO WHETHER IT MAY HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. MY FIRST HUNCH IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME FOG
REGARDLESS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
A SFC TROF TRAILING A LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW OCCLUDES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN FROM THE NW.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH GLIMPSES OF CLEAR
SKY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LL MOISTURE TAKES A RUN AT
FILLING BACK IN AS MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER MICHIGAN BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUDDING SFC HIGH. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT S
AND E INTO OHIO. HOW MUCH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE VERY DRY AND THIS LL MOISTURE MAY SCOUR OUT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES OHIO. NONETHELESS EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
LOWER/COOLER VALLEYS. A STRATUS BANK WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE
LAKE AND SPREAD INLAND DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. WIND WILL INCREASE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 50`S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
AND LIGHT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SPREADS SE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF COOL ON THU DUE TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW 70`S ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND MID 70`S
INLAND. THIS HIGH WILL BE MORE OR LESS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEFLECTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH ACROSS TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY THURSDAY MORNING...GIVING
NORTHERN OHIO A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. LATE FRI THE LOW STALLS OUT
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND BEGINS TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE WINDWARD SIDE LOW NEARER TO OHIO
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN THE FORM OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
TILL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  REALLY THINK MONDAY WILL BE DRY
SO HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.  THE WARM FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TILL MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TILL AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRY THE AREA OUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY INTERFERE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF BR/FOG OR STRATUS THAT CAN DEVELOP. IF TIMING IS
JUST RIGHT AND THESE HIGHER CLOUDS EXIT RIGHT BEFORE DAWN...MAY
VERY WELL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR. OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED THE MVFR
MENTION. THINK STRATUS WOULD BE PREDOMINATE FOR TOL/FDY AND BR/FOG
FOR CAK/YNG. OTHERS COULD GO EITHER WAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND WILL BE PREDOMINATE FOR THURSDAY. ANY MORNING NON VFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME NORTH AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST.  SUSTAINED WINDS RIGHT
NOW ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE OPEN WATERS WITH BUOY WAVE REPORTS NO
MORE THAN TWO FEET.  WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
HAVE NO CONCERN ABOUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINTAINING
A NE TO E FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE.  SPEEDS TOMORROW ON THE WEST END COULD
AGAIN GET CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BUT AFTER THAT MAINLY LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND CREATING A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.  CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA



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