Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 262342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
642 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS...THE SNOW FROM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OVER NW PA AND THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER NE OH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH BUT THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS COLD A .01 OR SO COULD CAUSE HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO NW OH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN
QUESTION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW
SEEMS TO MOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM RIGHT BASED ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR COMBINED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO PART OF NW OH. TALKED
ABOUT THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO NY STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.   WHICH MEANS SHOULD BE LINGERING SNOW IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C.   AT THE UPPER
LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER NERN US ALLOWING ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR.  LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HRS...AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT
HAVE SCATTERED OUT...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
EXACT ARRIVAL IS UNCERTAIN. SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. MFD/CAK/ERI ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLURRIES. ONLY
TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN TO
THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW OVER AS SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS
ABSORBED BY COASTAL LOW.  WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB



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