Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180533
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AROUND AND WITH A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION THE CLOUDS
DECREASED BUT ARE NOW INCREASING AGAIN. THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR...NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART PASSING UN-NOTICEABLY. WILL HAVE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
DRY. STILL LEFT A LITTLE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA...IT IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AND ONTARIO CANADA WILL JUST MAINTAIN OUR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL JUST
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WAS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL WAKE UP TO LOWS AGAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
BEFORE OUR BRIEF WARM-UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
HAVE HALF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES. AGAIN PRECIP FREE.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES COULD TOP 80
ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH ALL OTHERS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY A CHANCE AT MOST WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO OUR WEST.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH A PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND BUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. AN EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP A GOOD
PART OF THE DAY DRY...MAINLY IN THE TOLEDO AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS "CHANCE" RATHER THAN "LIKELY" UNTIL WE GET MORE
CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
DICTATE THE TEMPERATURE SINCE THE AIR MASS DOES NOT COOL OFF TOO
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
NORTHWEST  PENNSYLVANIA TO THE MID 70S NORTHWEST OHIO.

THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD DIG ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SINCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WOULD SEEM INEVITABLE AS THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT 2C OR 3C.

THE 12Z ECMWF BEGINS TO PULL THE TROUGH OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT THE
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER INTO MID WEEK. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT A FEW OF THE MORE LIKELY TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF IFR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH YNG IS MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ON THURSDAY WITH SCT AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BKN
CLOUDS IN THE 4-5K RANGE.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.
VFR RETURNS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP QUIETLY ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THURSDAY AND
THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH WIND
AND WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT THE LAKE WILL GET
CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY. THE SOUTH FLOW WILL PICK
UP NOTICEABLY BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE LARGER WAVES
WILL BE ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY BUT THE LAKE
WILL EVENTUALLY GET STIRRED UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND
THE HIGHER WAVES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS COLDER...
CANADIAN AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK






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