Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT INCLUDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE COUNTIES BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE COLD CORE ALOFT(-25C @H500) WILL DESTABALIZE THE AREA
BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD THUNDER WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS...NORTH WIND...AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60F THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST THERE
WILL BE LESS CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEG ABOVE 60F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



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