Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201435
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring like conditions will continue through the end of the work
week as a strong upper level ridge remains in place.  A cool front
will move across the area Tuesday kicking off some rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dense fog continues to dissipate across the southern tier of the
forecast area. Some patchy areas of fog reducing visibilities to
near zero are still possible next hour or so. Otherwise, another
nice mild day expected today with fair weather. So, no changes
expected with this update other than cleaning up the fog and
dropping the dense fog advisory.

Original discussion...
Today will be warm and dry with temps roughly 20-25 degrees above
normal.   A strong upper level ridge now centered over the Mid
Mississippi Valley will shift east and move over the forecast area
today.  The only weather the contend with will be a cirrus shield
which will move over the area.  Temperatures will remain well above
normal but below record temps today.  With the clouds think temps
will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday.  Record temps for
today are mainly in the mid 60s...ranging from 65 at Youngstown...to
69 at Cleveland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term with well above normal temps
continuing through the period.  Models continue to push weak cool
front across the forecast area on Tuesday. Models just a tad slower
with the from than YDY.  Slowed the timing of the rain with the
system...but kept likely pops going. Even though the front will
bring some rain...temps will only be a couple of degrees cooler than
today. The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday when
temperatures soar into the mid to upper 60s....which is 25-30
degrees above normal. Temps will approach record levels at a few
locations on Wednesday.

Location         Forecast   Record (Year)

Cleveland           67         72 (1930)
Akron/Canton        66         70 (1930)
Toledo              66         66 (1930)
Mansfield           65         69 (1930)
Youngstown          64         59 (1983)
Erie                63         69 (1930)

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Changes are finally coming during the long term period as the upper
ridge finally breaks down and temps return to near normal.  Active
weather is likely Friday as strong low pressure crosses the region.
Similar to yesterday the models continue to have timing differences
with the low.  The GFS remains slower than the ECMWF in the
progression of the main features.  Either way...showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms can be expected Friday and Friday evening.  The
low itself will pass to the north on Saturday with a cold front
ushering the cooler temps into the area.  High pressure builds in
quickly from the southwest the second half of the weekend which
should cut the lake effect potential off by early Sunday.  After
highs in the 60s Friday...highs on Sunday will struggle to make it
above 40 degrees which is near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure remains over the area which has led to calm winds
and good cooling overnight. As a result some dense fog has
developed over the southern end of the area. Expect improvement
to begin once the sun comes up but it will likely be 14 to 15z
before CAK climbs above IFR. It looks MFD will remain just north
of the fog. For the remainder of the period expect a gradual
thickening of the high clouds today with mid level cigs arriving
from west to east tonight. Light easterly flow will become SE
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR should develop Tuesday and continue into
Tuesday night. Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday
night and continue at times Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow will develop today as high pressure passes to the
northeast.  However...winds will flip to the south tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front.  The front will dissipate as it crosses
Lake Erie last Tuesday.  A brief period of light westerly flow is
expected behind the front before winds again become south to
southwest on Wednesday.  Fast moving low pressure will pass to the
north on Thursday dragging a cold front across the region.  Winds
will again briefly become northwest behind the front. On Friday
another strong low will move over the western Lakes forcing a warm
front north across the local area.  This will cause winds to return
to a southerly direction.  Do not foresee needing any small craft
advisories at this point.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina


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