Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 241921
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
High pressure will be in control across the area through
tonight. The region will be sandwiched between two areas of low
pressure, one to the west and one to the east, Tuesday through
Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the Great
Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper low across the southeast US will eject northeastward towards
the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Cloud cover will continue to
increase from the south, especially across the eastern 2/3rds of the
forecast area. Model guidance coming to a consensus on the potential
for some light rain showers towards the early/mid morning period on
Tuesday. Models indicate significant moistening of the column across
NE OH and NW PA by the morning hours with easterly Atlantic moisture
return and isentropic ascent focused over the area. Will go ahead
and expand at least slight chance pops westward through the area
centered around 12Z, as confidence increasing on at least the need
for mentionable rain chances despite fairly dry near surface layer.
Any precip chances should end by mid day Tuesday across the area
with clearing skies expected from west to east. No major changes to
low temps tonight or highs tomorrow from previous forecast.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will regain control across the area by Tuesday night,
with fairly stout return flow/WAA through at least Thursday morning.
This will yield well above normal temperature Wednesday into
Thursday. Kept highs near previous forecast, with low 80s possible
for most location Wednesday and upper 70s west/low 80s east
Thursday. Low pressure will track from the Plains Wednesday night
into the Great Lakes Thursday/Thursday night. Models are still in
some disagreement but starting to converge with respect to the
track/timing of the low and it`s attendant cold front moving east
through the area. Have opted for likely pops Thursday afternoon,
with chance pops in the west Thursday morning and chance pops east
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good general agreement beginning Friday
morning showing low pressure northern Texas with a stationary front
east into the Tennessee/lower Ohio valley. Friday night through
Saturday night this low will deepen and move into the central plains
as the upper trough across the southwest deepens lifting heights in
the east. This in turn will lift the front north into the area as a
warm front Saturday. With the overrunning precip shield on the north
side of the front...a significant variable in the forecast is how
far the front gets gets on Saturday. Current indications are that
the front begins Saturday just to our south and reaches from TOL to
ERI by Sunday morning so have went with likely pops much of the area
Saturday into Sunday. Sunday and Sunday night the upper trough to
our west deepens further moving the low north into the Great Lakes
and lifting the warm front through the area. Expect continued
active weather however in the deep southerly flow into the area
ahead of the deepening system.
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low pressure over the southeastern states will continue to move
north along the east coast through the overnight hours. Airmass
across the region is currently dry however the east coast low
will bring moisture back into the area from the south this
evening and overnight. Conditions mostly VFR but did put in MVFR
cigs in a tempo through late tonight or around dawn most areas.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.
Issued small craft advisory much of the nearshore and will continue
through 4am with buoy off Cleveland showing waves 4 to 5 feet in
easterly flow. Winds expected to remain the same or increase a few
knots through late afternoon before decreasing late tonight.
Easterly flow will persist through Tuesday before veering southeast
Tuesday night as low pressure moves into the upper midwest and
western lakes. Active weather returns Wednesday night and
Thursday as the low deepens and moves northeast across the lakes
forcing and cold front across Lake Erie. Winds will turn
southwest on the lake and increase to 15 to 20 knots and
bringing the lake close to small craft conditions. Friday and
Saturday no headlines are expected.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>147.