Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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664
FXUS61 KCLE 252311
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
711 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over indiana will move across the area tonight then
high pressure will push east across the great lakes friday through
saturday. A dissipating cold front will push east into lake erie
sunday before high pressure builds back over lake erie for much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Storms popped across northeast Ohio/northwest PA with very few
looking to pose much threat. We had been fairly capped and mid
level lapse rates are weak. Cold front just now lying near the
MI/OH border. This front will push the super muggy out of the
area...but not until late tonight. Most of the support ends here
this evening...pushing east. This in conjunction with the loss of
daytime heating...will stick with the forecast that brings precip
chances down overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highs on friday will run in the low to mid 80s.

The stretch of dry wx should continue thru sat night as high
pressure remains in control. There is a dissipating cold front that
tries to move into the area on sun which could provide focus for
some tsra development but the situation is marginal so will keep the
pops relatively low. Temps will be warmer on the weekend with highs
mostly in the mid to upper 80s although some of the far ne could
stay in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models consistent moving the cold front south of the forecast area
during the day on Monday...so could see some lingering showers
Monday morning...but surface high pressure pushes south over the
forecast area.   Weak upper level short wave moves across the Great
Lakes Tuesday afternoon so left low chance pops going then.  After
that models diverge.   GFS basically keeps high pressure over the
forecast area through the period with temps a few degrees above
normal.   The ECMWF on the other hand has tropical system moving NE
across the Florida panhandle and the SERN states on Wednesday.
Either way it should be should be basically dry although isolated
afternoon TSRA not totally out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Scattered thunderstorms on tap for this afternoon as cold front...from
near the Thumb of Michigan into Central Illinois will eventually push
across the area this evening. Capes already between 2k-3k j/kg
but no discernible trigger aside from the front.  SPC has entire
area in Slight risk of severe TSRA...but much less shear than ydy
so greatest threat would be from winds...although an isolate
tornado not totally out of the question.

OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday
morning with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front across SE lower Michigan will push across the lake
tonight.   Expect scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front this
evening.   Potential for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to
severe as SPC had area under slight risk of severe.    Choppy
conditions behind the front as the winds turn to the West to
Northwest at 10 to 15 knots.  Winds of 10 to 20 knots with the front
not totally out of the question...especially in the east.  High
pressure quickly builds in tomorrow and will last into early Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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