Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241605
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING A WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
STIRRING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUFFER
THE AREA FROM THE ENCROACHING MOISTURE. THE THICKER CLOUDS/DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LEADING PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS MOISTURE EXITS...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AND REMOVED THE LOW POP FROM
THE TONIGHT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING
FEATURES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFINE POPS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LEADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND REACHING NW OHIO BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM...POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY-SLOT WORKS INTO NW OHIO
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST BY THIS POINT AND A DEEPER SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A WINDOW OF 60 PERCENT OR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST BY THIS POINT BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL BE
EFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DAYTIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A FORECAST OF "SLIGHT CHANCE" WOULD
SEEM SUFFICIENT.

THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND GETS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS SLOW THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP AND WHEN THE FRONT MIGHT
ARRIVE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD SEEM
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SPECIFIC DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO
85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. A SWATH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE AT KTOL BUT WILL BE NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE LIMITED LAKE BREEZES EAST OF CLEVELAND TODAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARMER AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE FOR
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO MARINERS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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