Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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062
FXUS61 KCLE 261105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
605 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push up the ohio valley today and off the
Virginia coast by Monday. A low will move out of the plains Tuesday
and across Michigan Wednesday pulling a cold front across the region
early Wednesday night followed by reinforcing cold fronts on
Thursday and Friday. High pressure will move up the Ohio valley
Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure moving up the oh valley will cause the lake effect
conditions to become less favorable thru the day. Another inch or so
could accumulate in some spots in mainly nw pa before the snow
showers taper to mostly just flurries for the afternoon. The axis of
the ridge of high pressure pushing east should bring a period of
partly cloudy skies west to east across the cwa today but by evening
mid level clouds from a weak upper system and warm advection should
be spreading back into the area.

Temps should start to moderate in the afternoon with highs
eventually making it into a range from the mid 30s east to lower 40s
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection continues tonight thru Tue but lower level
convergence with the warm front does not look good enough for much
precip until later Mon night and Tue. Thus, there could be some
flurries in the south late tonight and Mon morning changing to just
a threat for sprinkles or light rain Mon as temps warm into the mid
to upper 40s. The threat for precip will increase and spread south
to north Mon night and Tue as a moist low level jet feeds into the
frontal boundary inching north. The airmass aloft in the snowbelt
could still be just cold enough for more snow versus rain late mon
night so a little accumulation could occur in this area if enough
precip develops before warmer temps arrive on Tue for just rain.

The band of rain may lift ne thru the area by later Tue as the warm
front pushes into Lake Erie so there may be a lull in the shra Tue
afternoon into evening. Increasing dynamics from the low tracking
just nw of the area Tue night and from thermal instability is
expected to produce an area of convection that works east across the
cwa Tue night. Will add mention thunder to the forecast and increase
QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another mild start to the day expected on Wednesday with
temperatures in the mid 50s, climbing into the lower 60s before the
cold front swings through during the afternoon. Rain will likely be
ongoing in the south and east during the morning with showers
filling in all areas with the front. Precipitation will transition
to snow overnight with minor accumulations possible in NW PA. Lake
effect snow showers will decrease on Thursday as moisture depth
dwindles.

Models are trying to develop a clipper that will slide across the
area Thursday night. We will continue to monitor changes in track
over the coming days which will effect which areas could see a quick
snow accumulation. High pressure will build overhead on Friday
followed by warming temperatures as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Evidence of the end of the snow showers appearing upstream as
the ridge building in is ending the snow showers across far
western MI. Mix of lower end VFR and MVFR will continue
overnight. Best chance for MVFR conditions is where there is
some upslope or lake influence with the west winds...so
MFD/YNG/CLE/ERI. Flurries outside of the snowbelt of NE OH/NW
PA...where the better snow showers are expected. KERI may very
well dip into IFR range with the snow...but there is no timing
it without a developed band/enhanced snow. Clearing will arrive
Sunday from west to east. Surface high passes to our south and
as that backs the winds to the southwest...the snow shower
chances will end by mid afternoon for KERI and ceilings will
improve there too. A few gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible for
TOL/FDY/CLE/MFD for Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has expired on the west half of the lake as
winds settle into the 10-20 knot range. The Advisory will continue
through 3 PM from Cleveland eastward as waves are slower to come
down. Winds are expected to back to the southwest with the higher
waves shifting towards the open waters this afternoon.

A wave of low pressure will slide east across the Upper Great Lakes
tonight with southwest winds increasing to 20-25 knots on the open
waters for a few hours. Better marine conditions expected on Monday
as a ridge expands across the eastern Great Lakes. The next system
to watch will be a low pressure system tracking out of the Plains on
Tuesday that will slide east across Lake Erie on Wednesday. This
system will pull a strong cold front across the lake with  northwest
winds sharply increasing to 20-25 knots or more on Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...KEC



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