Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281437
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME
BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST
UPPER AIR SOUNDING OUT OF DETROIT SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THIS
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OVER 0.20 QPF
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS JUST CLIP OUR NE CWA WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE 00Z RUN HAD AT LEAST DOUBLE THE QPF FROM
WHAT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR WHAT IS DRIVING THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE GFS BUT
THE 500MB VORTICITY PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK GREAT AND COULD HAVE SOME
ERRORS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER CONSENSUS OFFERED BY THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTERFERING THE THE
SNOW AND ONLY CARRY 50-60 POPS IN NE OHIO/NW PA WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW.

A BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY MAKE IT
TO THE LOWER 40S...BUT WE WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...MODELS DO SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE
WARM SECTOR FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT...THEN INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTIONS TODAY ARE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
CUTOFF BEHIND THE FRONT AND IF IT WILL COOL ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP GOING MONDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE NEW ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIP AROUND A LITTLE LONGER
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET GOING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH WARMING AND MOISTENING TO GET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS.  PRECIP TYPE STILL
SOMEWHAT UP IN THE AREA.  IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW
ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A SWITCH TO RAIN IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.  A
COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW
HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND A
GOOD 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH KYNG BEING
THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAT
FLURRIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL CUT OFF THE SNOW COMPLETELY.  CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR MOST
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEFT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF SCT THIS MORNING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
KERI. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT KCLE AND KYNG
AFT 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. NW TO W FLOW
WILL BECOME SW TO S BEHIND THE RIDGE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH -SHRA WITH THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.  THE FLOW ON THE
WESTERN BASIN WILL BECOME SW THIS MORNING AND WITH SPEEDS ALREADY
COMING DOWN HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT FROM THAT
AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH 10 AM.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WINDS DIE DOWN...THE
DAY CREW MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LAKE COULD AGAIN NEED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR MOST OF MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING WINDS TO LESSEN AND TAKE ON A
EASTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





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