Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 021740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DID GET ADDED TO THE TOLEDO
AREA FOR LATE TODAY ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COME
AFTER 00Z IF NOT EVEN AFTER 04-06Z.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.