Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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304
FXUS61 KCLE 031732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA IS PRESSING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR
RETURNS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE 10
DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO ONLY HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS EAST. A FEW AREAS
EAST OF I-77 SAW SOME SUN AS THE LOW DECK ERODED...BUT THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL FILL THAT AREA IN TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW DECK OVER
ASHTABULA/ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE BUT DO EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60F TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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