000
FXUS61 KCLE 182210
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.

IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.

FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE HEATING IT IS
MIXING AND ANY CEILINGS ARE BECOMING VFR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL GO AWAY AROUND DARK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TAF
SITES...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET TO.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.

AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA