Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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308
FXUS61 KCLE 240237
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1037 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast will move off the coast
tonight. A warm front over the midwest will lift north of the
area Friday morning. Weakening low pressure will track across
the Great Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dew points away from Lake Erie continue to be quite low. Really
impressive push of warm advection pivoting across the western
Great Lakes and moving east tonight. The low level jet is
progged to increase and approach 50 knots near NW OH by
daybreak. The zone of most impressive isentropic ascent will
move quickly across the forecast area later tonight and early
Friday morning. There are scattered showers throughout this zone
crossing Indiana. This showers have to overcome the dry
boundary layer but the bigger drops will survive the fall from
mid levels. Better chance for measurable showers north where the
condensation pressure deficits are less. Lightning has been a
little more regular than I originally thought in Indiana and
will mention it for the Toledo area. Cannot rule out a lightning
flash or two elsewhere but not as good a chance farther east
out ahead of the low level jet.

Temperatures aloft will warm as fast or faster than at the
surface so no real risk of frozen precip. Low temperatures will
likely be realized the first half of the night then temps will
rise with the south wind and increasing clouds. Surface temps
should be above freezing by the time the showers reach northwest
PA before daybreak. Made minor temperature and dew point
adjustments tonight based on current trends and slight
adjustments to speed up the arrival and departure of the
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Spring like weather will return to the area. The next 36 hours
or so should be dry as the surface baroclinic zones moves off
well to the north. Will begin to bring in precip chances on
Saturday but even then the southeast end of the area could
remain dry well into Saturday night. Will eventually need high
precip chances late Saturday night through Sunday. By that time
surface dewpoints will be well into the 50s. There could be some
thunder on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Already
had a mention in the forecast and that seems reasonable. It
should start to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night but the evening hours should be wet...especially in the
east.

Temps will be tricky during the period and depend quite a bit on
how much precip develops on Saturday. Readings could make a run
toward the upper 60s in the east...especially if there are a few
peaks on sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern with a period of above normal temperatures
expected in the long term period. Low pressure is expected to be
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning, exiting the
region. A few lingering showers are possible, especially across the
eastern part of the forecast area, with slight chance/chance pops
reflected in the forecast. Another phasing low will track into the
Great Lakes/Ohio valley region Monday night through Tuesday with
another shot of rain by Monday night, reflected in the grids with
high chance/likely pops. High pressure will settle southeast across
the Great Lakes by Tuesday night, with generally dry conditions
expected as the associated cold front from the Mon. night/Tue. low
get shunted south along the Ohio River. This is expected to bring
dry conditions to the region from Wednesday through Thursday. Precip
chances will increase again just beyond the forecast period as low
pressure moves out of the Plains into the region by next
Friday/Saturday. Above normal temps in the upper 50s/low 60s
expected Monday and Tuesday, with a slight cool down to near
normal temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure slides east tonight and allows a warm front to
push northeast across the terminals. Debate on how many showers
will be with the front seeing how dry of a start we have. Have
a VCSH mentioned for a few hours with the better chances across
far NE OH/NW PA and lower ceilings to the lower half of VFR.
Low level wind shear a concern later tonight as low level jet
accompanies the warm front. Surface gusts pick up by late
morning though. Will begin to see some MVFR ceiling develop and
move up across western OH. Some guidance brings a wealth of low
level moisture across the terminals, but if warm front gets
north of the area, the MVFR would possibly be temporary. SREF
guidance suggests this more optimistic route and have trended
that way with the exception of TOL/FDY through 00Z Sat.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Friday night and Saturday, more
widespread Sunday. Non-VFr possible again Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Thursday night and
then begin to increase in intensity from the south to southwest
through Friday. Flow suggests winds will keep highest waves away
from the nearshore waters to avoid small craft advisories at this
time. Winds diminish to light southerly over the weekend but begin
to increase slightly again Saturday night as a backdoor cold front
begins to push south across the lake. Cold front will stall over the
lake and lift north as a warm front Sunday but winds remain light
through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Greenawalt



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