Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 061153
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
653 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will spread across the forecast area today as low pressure
tracks across SE Ohio. The low will track east of the area
overnight and dissipate. An arctic front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday ushering in the coldest conditions of the
season and kicking off lake effect snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes for the 630 update. Rain SW of Dayton area
and I have it timed into SW portion of forecast area between 13z
and 14z. Temperatures already 32 at Mt Vernon. Just to the south temps
in the mid 30s and dew points in the lower 30s...so forecast for
all rain still looks reasonable.

Original discussion...
Currently low pressure now into KY with height falls centered
over Southern Ohio. This supports the models...which track the low
across SE Ohio later today. The rain shield associated with the
low is just south of the Ohio River...but should not reach the
southern portion of the forecast area until mid morning. With the
surge of warm air ahead of low...am expecting all precip to fall
in the form of rain. The 32 dew points are already into Dayton
area and should creep into SWRN portion of forecast area by time
rain begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low will track east of the forecast area this evening...then
dissipate.   Tomorrow will be quiet with a weak ridge of high
pressure extending across the upper Ohio Valley...the lull before
the storm.   Models continue to be in good agreement...with an
arctic front sweeping across the forecast area Thursday morning.
This will usher in the coldest conditions of the season and set up a
Lake effect snow event that will last into the weekend. Expect a
quick burst of snow with the front and the associated upper level
trough Thursday morning and then a lull before the lake effect
kicks in.

Potential for heavy snow by Thursday evening as the 850mb temps
dip to -12c...for a 19 degree differential with the lake. Worse
the 500 MB temps plunge to -36c...which is a 43 degree
differential...so there is the potential for thunder snow. In
addition plenty of moisture with clouds tops over 10k ft. The snow
will initially be confined to the northern snowbelt with a west
flow up through 700mb. But overnight the 850mb winds shift to the
NW which will force the snow inland...but the shear will prevent
any megabands from developing. With a NW flow could tap into Lake
Michigan moisture and dump a couple of inches across Lorain and
Medina counties Thursday night. Lake effect will continue into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow will be ending at some point on Saturday as
southwesterly winds shift any remaining bands back up the lakeshore
into Western NY. There will then be a brief lull in precipitation
Saturday night. Models are struggling with the timing of the next
wave of low pressure that will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
Snow is expected at the onset of precipitation at some point Sunday
but it appears we will likely transition to rain. Confidence is low
timing this storm system across the region.

Cold on Saturday with highs remaining in the 20s. Warmer Sunday
into Monday with highs back into the middle and upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Light rain moving northward into the area from Central Ohio this
morning. It will take an hour or so of light rainfall to bring
ceilings down. After it does begin to rain expect mvfr ceilings
to develop with. IFR conditions will arrive after a couple hours
of rain and then persist into the afternoon. Rain will end from
west to east from mid afternoon into the evening hours. The lower
clouds will attempt to lift in the wake of a weak cold front that
will cross the region overnight.

Easterly winds will gradually shift to the southwest through the
day. Winds may be gusty for a few hours this morning especially
across portions of NE OH into NW PA. Winds will become westerly
in the wake of the cold front this evening into the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Wednesday in rain/snow showers. Lake
Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with non-VFR expected,
especially across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will gradually shift to the south this evening. Waves
may build to 2 to 3 feet or so across the western basin until winds
shift more to the southeast by mid afternoon. Current thinking is
we remain below small craft advisory levels. Winds become
southwesterly tonight and will increase. Looks like the eastern half
of the lake will need to monitored closely for small craft advisory
conditions. Winds may decrease slightly Wednesday night but as the
upper level trough passes on Thursday winds will increase from the
west and northwest. Small craft advisory conditions are a definite
Thursday afternoon into at least Friday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen


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