Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CHICAGO AREA SOUTHWEST TO
OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES
CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP
BY 12Z SO WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. WEATHERWISE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS WEST TO EAST NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE AT THIS HOUR. NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW
IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW
WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST
UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS






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