Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 050825
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN
PUSH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS INDIANA AND NW OHIO
AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE RUC SHOWS THIS SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT MODELS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENING AND SLOWLY LIFTING NE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN
THE WEST TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH 13-14Z THEN WAIT FOR INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN THE WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A TRIGGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
INITIATION IN NW OHIO ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE WAVE AND NE OHIO
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.

WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S IN PA TO NEAR 90 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT
ON SUNDAY. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXCEPT FOR NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. DEWPOINTS START TO MIX OUT BY MONDAY
AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO FINALLY PREVAIL WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED.

THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MIDWEST. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STREAMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS ENERGY AND OUTPACES THE RETURN OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH MODELS SIGNALING
CHANGE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN MID WEEK.   UNFORTUNATELY THE
ECMWF IS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS.  ALTHOUGH GFS A
LITTLE FASTER ON THE TIMING TREND IS STILL THE SAME.  MODELS PUSH
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO STALL THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  MEANWHILE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS NICE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A DIGGING
TROUGH BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN. AREAS OF MVFR BR TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE AS MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS YDY.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.   SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB


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