Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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646
FXUS61 KCLE 290146
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
946 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a
weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight. A
surface ridge will expand from Plains across the Ohio Valley on
Memorial Day followed by a stronger cold front on Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...Updated most elements for the overnight beginning with
current conditions and using HRRR for timing of precip through
the area.

Original...Warm front attempting to lift northward across Lake
Erie with a humid airmass over northern Ohio and NW PA. Already
seeing convection that initiated on a lake boundary and near a
cold front that is moving toward NW Ohio. Expect these strong to
severe thunderstorms to persist into the evening. The front
should sweep across the area after midnight as the low lifts
into southern Ontario.

There should then be a dry period late tonight through early Monday
afternoon. We then will watch for the next piece of energy that will
move into the region as an upper level trough takes up residence
over the central Great Lakes. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
be possible monday afternoon into the early evening.

Slightly cooler on Monday but still above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will swing through the area Monday night. Will
maintain chance pops diminishing to slight chance through the night
as the front pushes east. The front will linger across the far
eastern part of the forecast area on Tuesday, so will maintain the
slight chance/chance pops through the day. Another
shortwave/attendant surface trough will swing through the area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Will maintain slight chance pops
Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing to chance pops east
Wednesday. High pressure will move into the area Wednesday night
with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will be seasonable
Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s, and slightly cooler for
Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period will start out quiet on Thursday as high pressure
moves across the area, but precip activity will pick up into the
weekend as a frontal boundary settles south into the region into
next weekend. Will go ahead with chance to slight chance pops
Thursday night through Saturday to account for this. Temps will
generally be seasonable through this period, but slightly cooler
(around 70 degrees) heading into the weekend as the front settles
south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Warm front near the Ohio/PA border will lift NE next couple of
hours. A cold front near the Indiana/Ohio border will move
across the forecast area this evening. Scattered TSRA will
continue east of the front. Wind gusts into 30 to 35 knot range
still possible in the stronger storms. Storms should begin to
diminish somewhat after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR at times Monday night through Thursday in
showers/thunderstorms as an upper level trough persists over the
central Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds late this afternoon will veer around to the southwest
overnight as a warm front lifts north through the area. Winds will
increase towards tomorrow morning in the 15-20 kt range, with the
highest winds across the eastern part of the lake. Southwest to
occasionally westerly flow will persist through Thursday, generally
in the 10-15 kt range. Some diurnal peaks to around 20 kts possible
during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday, and may be enough
for small craft conditions for a few hours each day.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Greenawalt



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