Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 110746
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the early week period, peaking in the low to
mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Dry conditions today and Tuesday, with just a small chance for a
shower/sprinkle Wednesday.

- Rain chances increasing Thursday and Thursday night a low pressure
system tracks across the area. Potential exists for a few
thunderstorms during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confluent upper level northwest flow atop surface ridging ensures a
stretch of deep layer stability within a very dry airmass, affording
benign weather to start the work week. Steady rise in the
geopotential height field as the weekend mid level trough
relinquishes control will bring an initial period of moderating
temperatures today. Full insolation potential offers an additional
boost, supporting highs of low to mid 50s. Milder conditions hold
tonight as lower amplitude upper ridging takes control and warm air
advection strengthens under developing low level southwest flow.
This places a floor in prospective low temperatures at mid 30s to
lower 40s.

Pattern of warm air advection firmly established into Tuesday as
southwest flow attains greater depth and strength within a broader
region of upper ridging. 850 mb temperature peak near 8C during the
daylight hours. Some pockets of thicker high based cloud may emerge
downstream of a weak mid level and frontal boundary lifting across
the midwest, but dry conditions will continue as temperatures make
run toward the low to mid 60s. Shortwave slides by to the north
Tuesday night, drawing the weak frontal zone into the lower
peninsula by Wednesday. Little evidence at this stage to suggest a
more meaningful chance of rain will emerge given the lack of greater
moisture quality, but wouldn`t rule out a high based sprinkle or two
as the frontal zone takes residence. Similar thermal profile as
noted Tuesday, but with greater limitation to insolation given the
added cloud. Highs temperatures still solidly well above average.

Piece of shortwave energy originating from more organized height
falls located across the western conus will shear northeast atop of
the flattening upper ridge periphery, arriving locally within the
Thur and Thur night window. Established deep layer southwest flow
immediately downstream likely proves favorable in generating a
stronger northward push of moisture into the advancing height fall
center and resident frontal zone. Improving magnitude to large scale
ascent combined with the greater moisture quality points to a high
likelihood for rain development during this time. Accompanying upper
jet support will offer an additional focus for greater fgen to
emerge locally depending on exact positioning and motion of the
frontal zone relative to surface low track. This suggests potential
for a period of higher intensity convective rainfall, with magnitude
of theta-e advection and associated reduction in mid level stability
supporting at least an elevated thunder mention. Downtrend in
temperatures starting Friday in the wake of this system, with
evidence in the long range model output for more amplified troughing
pattern to emerge sometime next weekend into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure will build across Michigan today which will
result in a rapid drop off of wind speeds and gusts leading into the
afternoon hours. Northwest flow will linger this morning and will
promote elevated wave heights along portions of the Lake Huron
shorline leading into the afternoon. Wind direction will then back
to the southwest by the afternoon which will quickly decreases wave
heights along the shoreline. The passage of a warm front will
sustain south to southwest flow leading into Wednesday as milder
temperatures filter in. The increased stability will bring lighter
winds acros the region, with some localized gusts around 20-25 knots
across the Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron tomorrow given the SW
flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2024

AVIATION...

Rapid geopotential height rises tonight are resulting in a
significant amount of warming between 2.0 and 6.0 ft agl. This low-
midlevel warm advection combined with the loss of daytime heating has
led to strong static stability already at taf time. Winds have
calmed down a touch here after dark and as a result listed the
prevailing wind at 12 knots. Full insolation for the daytime heating
is then expected to result in dry, VFR conditions Monday. Some SCT
mid- upper level cloud with questionable transparency is anticipated
towards Monday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and Monday.

* High for exceeding northwest crosswind threshold through the rest
  of Sunday into early Monday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ422.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ361>363-
     462>464.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.


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