Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS53 KDTX 171921
FWFDTX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Michigan
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front will drop through the region this
evening through the overnight. This will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms that will taper off by Monday morning. The front
will shift the wind from southerly to northerly and northeasterly
Monday into Tuesday. This will elevate daily minimum RH values to
near 70 percent with moist flow coming from Lake Huron. Post-frontal
high temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s before we
see another warming trend through the rest of the week.

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-181215-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Including the cities of Midland-Bay City-Saginaw-Owosso-Flint
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2 am. Scattered showers. A
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2 am.
                    Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Min temperature.....57-62.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........98 percent.
   24 hr trend......7 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100-300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered showers
                    until 7 am. A slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 8 am. A slight chance of showers after
                    7 am until 11 am. Chance of precipitation 40
                    percent.
Max temperature.....69-74.
   24 hr trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........56-66 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1980-2480 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 15 mph becoming east around 5
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (290).
Pcpn amount.........0.01-0.05 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 4 am then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2 am. Chance of precipitation 30
                    percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........99 percent.
   24 hr trend......2 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......580-780 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10).
Pcpn amount.........0.01-0.05 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    8 am. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Max temperature.....70-75.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........66-75 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5160-5660 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 mph becoming west early in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (720).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.


$$

MIZ049-054-055-062-181215-
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Bad Axe-Caro-Sandusky-Lapeer
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 8 pm then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2 am. Scattered showers. A
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2 am.
                    Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Max humidity........91-98 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100-300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest around
                    15 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered showers
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms until
                    8 am then a slight chance of showers until
                    11 am. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Max temperature.....66-71.
   24 hr trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-75 percent.
   24 hr trend......18 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2270-2770 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph decreasing to around 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (330).
Pcpn amount.........0.01-0.05 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 4 am then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers after 2 am. Chance of precipitation
                    20 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........99 percent.
   24 hr trend......2 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph until early morning
                    becoming light and variable.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph becoming east after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.01-0.05 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Max temperature.....70-75.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........69-79 percent.
   24 hr trend......1 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3590-4090 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph becoming southwest
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (440).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.


$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181215-
St Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron-Howell-Pontiac-Warren-Ann
Arbor-Detroit-Adrian-Monroe
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 10 pm then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2 am. Scattered showers. A
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2 am.
                    Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Min temperature.....60-65.
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........93-99 percent.
   24 hr trend......1 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100-300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of thunderstorms until 8 am. Scattered showers
                    until 9 am then a slight chance of showers
                    until 11 am. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Max temperature.....72-77.
   24 hr trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........65-72 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1770-2270 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph becoming northeast in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (330).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 4 am then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers after 2 am. Chance of precipitation
                    30 percent.
Min temperature.....55-60.
   24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........98 percent.
   24 hr trend......1 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......810-1010 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph becoming southeast after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers until 8 am then chance of showers
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of
                    precipitation 40 percent.
Max temperature.....74-79.
   24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
Min humidity........66-73 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......6290-6790 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest early in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (950).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.


$$


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. East
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 80s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower
80s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80.

$$

SF



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